Blanchard Index

Exclusive Precious Metals Market Outlook and Recommendations

Index updated May 7, 2025

Blanchard's Monthly Index

The Blanchard Monthly Index is a roll-up of industry news and economic trends affecting the precious metals market and trading world.

Check back each month for insights and commentary from our leading experts and contributors.

High: — | Low: — | Current: —

The Blanchard Economic Report

Market Movers

  • Precious Metals: Investors used a short-lived dip to $3,226 an ounce in gold in early May to buy. That buying spree lifted the precious metal over $150 an ounce higher in recent days. Safe-haven demand for gold remains strong amid the start of the global trade war, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Israel and Ukraine and concerns over a possible recession. Gold is also benefitting from strong central bank demand. Goldman Sachs said that gold could climb above $3,700 by the end of the year if a recession emerges.

 

  • Stocks: Since Liberation Day, the stock market rebounded from its steep declines amid ideas that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates despite concerns over the potential for higher inflation. The stock market got a lift in recent days from Big Tech stock earnings. Meta and Microsoft reported strong earnings and the companies’ also reaffirmed guidance to spend heavily this year on artificial intelligence.

 

  • Economic Insights: U.S. businesses added 177,000 new jobs to the economy, according to the April non-farm payrolls report. Meanwhile, the federal workforce shed 26,000 jobs since the start of the year. For now, despite the uncertainty surrounding global tariffs, businesses continued to hire.

 

  • Washington Policy: The stock market traded slightly higher on news that U.S.-China trade talks could begin. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. trade officials are traveling to Switzerland to meet with China’s top economic representative, potentially paving the way for official trade negotiations.

In the News

Billionaire investor John Paulson sees gold near $5,000 by 2028 – Reuters.

“The best place to go if your faith in the (U.S) dollar diminishes is gold as a reserve currency, said Paulson who was considered for a role in President Donald Trump’s second-term cabinet.”

The Numbers

Gold/Silver ratio: 102 oz. silver = 1 oz. gold

How to use it: This ratio reveals the number of ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold, and it measures the relative value of these two metals.

  • A ratio higher than 80:1 signals that silver is undervalued relative to gold.
  • A ratio below 40:1 suggests silver is overvalued.
  • Current reading: Buy signal for silver

Market Performance Year-To Date

  • Gold: up 26%
  • Silver: up 11%
  • S&P 500: down 5%

Short-term Trend (20-day moving average)

  • Gold: Up
  • Silver: Up
  • S&P 500: Up

Long-term Trend (200-day moving average)

  • Gold: Up
  • Silver: Up
  • S&P 500: Down