Monday Morning Wrap Up – July 6, 2020
Posted onGold Surges above $1,800 for First Time Since 2011
Gold traded above the $1,800 an ounce level last week for the first time since 2011. The summer gold rally is hot and getting hotter.
As the economy continues to reopen, store clerks are reminding shoppers to put on their face masks. People are waiting for the next elevator. Hand sanitizer is available at almost every establishment you enter.
Yet Texas, California and Florida continue to reveal a swift increase in the number of confirmed Covid-19 infections. Over 57,000 new Covid cases, a record high number, were reported in the U.S. on July 3 as the number of new daily cases accelerates and points higher.
The new wave of infections prompted California to order 19 counties to partially close down some activities. On the East Coast, New Jersey and New York City delayed the resumption of indoor dining at restaurants.
Hopes for a “V” shaped economic recovery are being dashed as some states are now back tracking on economic activity plans.
How to Interpret June Jobs Data
Last week, the June employment report came in better than expected with 4.8 million new jobs created. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3% the previous month.
While that sounds promising, at the same time, another 1.4 million Americans lost their jobs last week and applied for unemployment benefits.
The bottom line – is that the economic data is “noisy” right now.
The stock market is down, the stock market is up. Lock-downs shutter businesses, some are reopening on a smaller scale. Others are getting closed once again. One economic report looks good, another reveals the depth of the crisis.
Here’s the hard truth; it might take years for all of the jobs that were lost to fully recover. In fact, during the 10 recessions since 1950, it took an average of 30 months for lost jobs to finally come back, LPL Financial said recently.
“As good as the recent economic data has been, we want to make it clear, it could still take years for the economy to fully come back,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think of it like building a house. You get all the big stuff done early, then some of the small things take so much longer to finish; I’m looking at you crown molding.”
Fed Meeting Minutes Reveal How Little They Really Know
Last week the Fed released its minutes from the early June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. What do we find?
A lot of uncertainty.
In fact, the Fed meeting minutes referenced “uncertain” or “uncertainty” 45 different times in the 13-page report.
Yes, really.
The Fed minutes also revealed that the central bankers remain fairly pessimistic on the economic outlook ahead as “voluntary social distancing, precautionary saving, and lower levels of employment and income” are likely to weigh on recovery prospects in the medium term.
In the News…U.S. Dollar at Risk
Billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio highlighted the shift towards “storeholds of wealth” like gold in an interview with Bloomberg last week.
Dalio, not afraid to speak the truth, stated that the Federal Reserve is boosting markets, and even more worrisome, the U.S. dollar could lose its appeal in the world marketplace.
“The economy and the markets are driven by the central banks in coordination with the central government,” Dalio told Bloomberg.
He warned that if any viable alternative to the U.S. dollar emerges, investors will dump U.S. Treasury bonds, which offer zero return, and pile into the new alternative.
“That would be terrible for the United States,” Dalio continued. “It would be probably the biggest disruptor not only to the markets but to the whole world geopolitical system.”
Sadly, given the size of our U.S. government debt ($22.8 trillion and rising every day) and the massive money creation by the Federal Reserve – make this a “when” not “if” scenario for our country.
Will this disruption come in 1, 5, 10, or 20 years? No one knows.
But, when it does, foreigners will pull out the U.S. dollar, sell U.S. Treasuries, pull out of the American stock market – leaving the U.S. nothing but $22.8 trillion in debt (likely much more by then) with no one willing to buy our bonds to finance the debt anymore. That will mean interest rates – probably at the highest levels ever seen in the United States – double digit for sure. And, a massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar.
It’s no wonder that bank after bank on Wall Street are turning more and more bullish on gold by the day.
More Bullish Forecasts for Gold
Another U.S. investment bank recently jumped on the bandwagon of bullish price forecasts for gold – Citi analysts have now increased their 3-month forecast for gold to $1,825 an ounce.
Goldman Sachs calls for Gold $2,000
Goldman Sachs forecasts gold to hit $2,000 within 12-months.
China Power Rising
On the global front last week, China’s power is rising – as it boldly passed a National Security Law for Hong Kong, which threatens the end of the ‘one country, two systems’ promised 23 years ago on the handover from Great Britain to China.
China’s rising power and ambition stretches far beyond Hong Kong with economic ramifications that will likely become the biggest challenge for our country in the decade ahead.
Preparing Your Asset Allocation for the Next Stage of the Covid Crisis
The second half of 2020 ushers in a U.S. presidential election, a potential “second wave” of Covid in the fall, once the seasonal influenza season begins, and a whole host of geopolitical challenges as China continues to force its way onto the world stage in a stronger way.
If you’ve been considering increasing your allocation to gold, the argument has never been stronger. Move to the safety of gold, an asset that will preserve, protect and grow your wealth today, tomorrow and for generations to come.
Best,
David
