Just a few weeks after the United Kingdoms historic June 23 referendum, getting an accurate read on just how far the Brexits aftershocks will be felt remains a difficult task. However, one major investment bank thinks this monumental threat to the European Union is just another reason to buy commodities, especially oil and gold.

Make no mistake: Pain in being felt across the eurozone, with Barclays declaring Great Britain on the cusp of a recession that will begin in the second half of 2016 despite the Bank of England about to cut interest rates for the first time in seven years.

And the International Monetary Fund is partly citing Brexit in slashing Italys growth forecasts and warning of two decades of economic stagnation for Europes third-largest economy.

IMF sees negligible effects in U.S.

However, the IMF also thinks that Brexit could have negligible effects on the U.S. economy, which although mired in historically low GDP output in recent years remains one of the prettiest horses in the global glue factory. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, too, just minimized Brexits potential domestic impact in public comments.

Whether now is the time to minimize concerns over Brexit is unclear, but certainly the resulting global central-bank money printing to alleviate concerns and boost growth is one reason why Citigroup likes commodities.

Citi is especially bullish commodities for 2017, analysts wrote. The oil market is treading water for now, but the oil price overshot to the downside earlier this year and this is clearly setting the stage for a bullish end to the decade.

Citi economists see the damage to global growth from Brexit to be limited in extent and duration in 2016, while stronger growth from China and the U.S. should lift global growth for the rest of the year, they wrote.

Team lifts average price forecast

Some at the firm like black gold better than real gold, but that preference hasnt stopped Citi from raising its price forecasts for bullion. Its now lifted its 2016 target to an average price of $1,265 for the year, up 9% from 2015, partly because its expecting the Federal Reserve to launch no more than one rate hike this year and perhaps none in 2017.

Its more bullish, outlying scenarios call for gold to run as high as $1,400 to $1,425 in the second half of this year.

Now is not the time to fully discount Brexits possible after-effects, but Citis bullish take shows that gold doesnt necessarily need the fear of an EU disintegration and subsequent contagion to keep rising into 2017.

Japan is facing an economic quandary: despite massive infusions of quantitative easing and even negative interest rates to stimulate its moribund economy, the yen remains stronger than officials would like. Now that Prime Minister Shinzo Abes ruling coalition has won a decisive victory in elections there, the nation has summoned one of the worlds biggest experts on money printing and currency debasement. That expert? Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Bernanke met Monday with Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who is under pressure to try a new strategy at the BoJs July 28-29 meeting. Some market players speculate Kuroda might decide, in a surprise, to provide helicopter money a term coined by American economist Milton Friedman and cited by Bernanke, before he became Fed chairman, when talking about how central banks might finance government budgets as a way to seek to fight deflation, Reuters reported.

Bernanke himself outlined what he sees as the pros and cons of helicopter money (as well as other unconventional policy tools) in his blog at the Brookings Institution, calling such a plan presumably last-resort. The term is inspired by the image of direct helicopter drops of monetary stimulus in the form of tax cuts and/or fiscal and infrastructure spending, enabled by further central-bank money printing. Indeed, Bernanke also is slated to meet Tuesday with Abe, who already is working on a stimulus package reportedly worth about $98 billion.

We are going to make bold investment into seeds of future growth, Abe said Monday.

Well have to wait to find out what Kuroda and Abe have up their sleeves, but many Japanese investors arent being so patient. Numerous reports document increasing moves into gold in a nation otherwise not known for a deep appetite for the metal.

Japans largest bullion retailer, operated by Tanaka Holdings Co., recorded a 60% leap in the sales of the metal from May into June, even tripling on the day after the UKs Brexit referendum passed.

For investors, buying gold is similar to casting a no-confidence vote, former World Gold Council executive Itsuo Toshima told Bloomberg. Gold is the unprintable currency, unlike the yen. The yens appreciation in spite of the adoption of the negative-rate policy has kindled skepticism about the policys benefits. Its also led to investors seeking to protect their assets in case Abenomics fails.

Meanwhile, separate research found that Japanese investors also are increasingly buying and storing gold in Switzerland, with the number jumping by 62% in the first half of 2016 versus the last half of 2015.

With the metal up only about 7.5% so far in yen terms, versus the more than 25% gained by dollar-priced bullion, investors no doubt see room for further price appreciation if and when the Bank of Japans unconventional easing tools finally gain traction.

And although last Fridays jobs report from the Labor Department has lent some much-needed shine to the U.S. economy, other key indicators continue to suggest that the Fed will be keeping gold-bullish low interest rates in force for quite some time and eventually could be turning to negative rates of its own if things take a sharper turn for the worse.

Golds startling resilience was the buzzword afterFridayshighly scrutinized U.S. employment report and another reason why a major banks new bullish forecast should carry weight with bullion investors.

In anticipation of the June nonfarm-payrolls number from the Labor Department, the gold price initially dippedFridayafter hitting two-year highs earlier in the week as traders took profits.

The jobs report is viewed as a gauge of the U.S. economy as well as an indicator of the Federal Reserves future interest-rate policies. Along with Brexit uncertainties, the disastrous Mayjobs report issued in June ensured that the central bank would not raise rates at its meeting that same month.

Payrolls rose by 287,000:However, the June payrolls number publishedFriday(July 8) surprised to the upside,with 287,000 jobsreportedly created. Gold then fell near $1,336 but then remarkably rebounded back into positive territory. By early afternoon the metal was just below break-even status, trading near $1,360. (Silverrose, again topping the $20 level, and stocks gained as well.)

Conventional wisdom holds that if the jobs number was poor, the gold price would rise because of cooling expectations of a Fed rate hike. Conversely, a strong jobs report would be expected to slam bullion lower by raising the likelihood of Fed action. (Rising interest rates are often, though not always, associated with lower gold prices.)

Brexit likely ties Feds hands:But gold has held relatively firm. Why? Because 1) the true U.S. jobs picture isnt nearly as strong as the payrolls report suggest. The unemployment rate rose to 4.9%; a closer look at the employment categories shows that most of the newjobs areminimum-wage positions; and the labor-participation rate remains near record lows, with more than 94.5 million Americans out of the work force.

And 2) even though a good headline jobs number would ordinarily pressure the Fed to raise rates, too many negativesexist in the global economy for the central bank to start tightening now. Uncertainties from the pro-Brexit referendum are only just starting to unfold, with cracks surfacing in the UK property market and across the European banking system (especially in Italy as well as in Germanys Deutsche Bank).

U.S. elections also a factor:Moreover, with the U.S. presidential election just months away, the Fed might be reluctant to change the status quo by raising rates now. A rate hike could derail thestock market and the overall U.S. economy, and with Fed chief Janet Yellen leaning left politically, any resulting shocks could hurt the chances of her presumably preferred candidate, Democrat Hillary Clinton, against Republican Donald Trump.

Sure, The Wall Street Journals Fed insider, Jon Hilsenrath, as well as Goldman Sachs both see the chances of a Fed ratehike rising after this positive jobs report, butothers disagree largely because of the ongoing Brexit overhang.

One jobs number isnt going to change the outlook for the Fed right now, said Bob Haberkorn of RJO Futures. It hasnt changed the fundamental outlook for the global economy, because we still have Brexit and low rates.

BOAML sees $1,475 ahead:That overhang is one reason why gold was standing tough after the jobs report and why investors should consider taking Bank of America Merrill Lynchs new bullion forecast seriously.

A BOAML research team led by Michael Widmer has joined the likes of Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley in predicting gold prices rising near $1,500 in the coming months.

The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change, the banks analystswrote. We called a bottom in gold in February and Brexit reinforces our view. As such we are upgrading next years gold price forecast from $1,325 per ounce to $1,475 per ounce.

The burgeoning chorus of gold bulls also includesBarry Dawesof Paradigm Securities ($1,400-$1,500, this year, with longer-term potential of $1,900);Georgette Boeleof ABN Amro Bank ($1,425 this quarter, $1,450 in 2017); andJoni Tevesof UBS ($1,400).

The Brexit market shock of falling stock indexes, fluctuating currencies, and spiking gold prices has a familiar feeling to the market shock that occurred after Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.

In a sense, the collapse of Lehman on the most turbulent day of the global banking crisis set a precedent for all future market shocks. There are lessons in the market reaction to Lehmans downfall that can help gold investors set expectations following the Brexit market shock and spot prime opportunities for buying gold at reasonable prices.

A day that Wall Street wont forget:Lets go back to that transformative day of the financial market crisis: Sept. 15, 2008. Investors awoke that morning to learn the financial landscape had changed overnight. The biggest bombshell was the Chapter 11 filing of Lehman Brothers the investment banking and Wall Street behemoth with over $600 billion in assets, all of which had vanished over the course of a weekend.

Lehmans bankruptcy truly felt like a sky is falling moment for nearly all market participants. Stocks indexes around the world seemed to be stuck in a perpetual downward spiral in the following days, and no one knew what surprises would come out of blue as a result of Lehmans demise.

Charting golds reaction:Naturally, investors flocked to gold in the midst of this turmoil. Prices rose from around $740 per ounce just before Lehmans bankruptcy to over $900 per ounce justtwo weeks later. (See September 2008 chart.) But this rally in gold was short-lived. Investors who bought gold at these elevated prices saw them drop below where they were before the Lehman bankruptcyone month later. (See October 2008 chart.) What was behind the retreat in gold prices and the round-trip volatility? Primarily it was a liquidity rush from investors looking to meet margin calls on their leveraged stock investments. While the financial meltdown and stock market correction continued to rage, gold prices cooled off and fell 15-20% from their crisis peaks.

Sparking golds record run:But once the margin covering had abated, the stage was set for a strong bull market in gold lasting nearly three years. Gold prices had bottomed around $712 per ounce in late October 2008, then climbed slowly and steadily to nearly $1,900 per ounce by September 2011 a total gain of over 166%.

It would not be surprising to see the same pattern in the gold market following the Brexit market shock a round-trip run-up in prices followed by a quick decline, then slow and steady appreciation over several years. We saw safe-haven buying and a price spike on June 24 the day after the world learned the result of the Brexit vote. Prices remained elevated during the next week as the market continued to digest the news and contend with the uncertainty.

Summer lull is hot time to buy:But the immediate shock of the Brexit outcome will lessen in the coming weeks. Gold prices may also come down from current levels as well. If so, the timing is ideal for investors looking to build gold positions for their personal wealth. Summer is typically the slow season for the gold market. Trading volume during July and August has historically been below other months of the calendar year. Buyers with the money to invest and the patience to watch how market trends develop may find good opportunities to purchase gold at relatively reasonable prices.

And because the uncertainty around the Brexit consequences will linger, gold is likely to remain an attractive safe haven for nervous investors with the potential to appreciate for many years to come. There are no guarantees of a similar outcome to what we saw after the Lehman market shock, but investors who are considering adding gold to their holdings should watch the gold market closely for prime buying opportunities to emerge.

Call Blanchard and Company now at1-866-629-2281to protect your portfolio as the Brexit aftershocks continue to unfold!

While Americans were busy barbecuing and shooting fireworks on July Fourth, the precious metals market saw renewed fireworks thanks in part to Chinese investors.

Silver especially sparkledMonday, launching a 7% run higher and climbing above $21 for the first time since July 2014 before easing Tuesday near $19.88.

Silver has gained 47% at its peak in 2016 and has risen by 55% since its December 2015 lows. In contrast, gold is up about 27% for the year.

The gold-silver ratio, or the number of ounces of silver needed to buy a single ounce of gold, fell to around 64:1, its lowest level since August 2014. Thats down from the 83:1 peak reached in February.

Concerns over Brexit aftershocks continue to fuel the ascent of both gold and silver, but another factor played intoMondayssure in silver: Chinese investors.

The price of silver surged to a two-year highon Mondayas buyers in China made bold bets in the futures market and scooped up vast volumes of physical metal, The Wall Street Journalreported. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most actively traded silver futures contract jumped for a fourth straight sessionon Monday, hitting its 6% daily maximum at opening to reach 4,419 yuan ($663) akilogram.

An increasing number of commodity-trading platforms in China also helped driveMondaysaction. The emergence of commodity trading venues in China has, however, changed the balance in the market, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen noted. Back in April,a sudden rise in demand for steel rebar and iron ore futures from Chinese day traders triggered a major surge in daily volumes.

However, silver also is commonly viewed as a high-power play on golds movement, with the white metal often outpacing the yellow metal in percentage gains in bullish markets. And so, following the Brexit vote traders around the world, not least in China, have increasingly cast their eyes on silver, Hansennoted.

Western demand also is supporting silver. Holdings in silver-linked ETFs hit record highs in June, and coin and bar consumption remains robust. One United Kingdom bullion dealertold Bloombergthat silver buying was trumping gold purchases at his firm.

The UK demand for Silver Britannia coins is very strong, he said. Three times more than average.

And in the U.S., sales of the Mints silver American Eagle bullion coins continue at a record-breaking pace, with938,000 ounces sold in the pre-holiday week the best weekly total since late May. So far, investors have snapped up more than 26.2 million silver Eagles 20% more than at the same time last year.

Silver has benefited from its dual identity as both a monetary metal and a key manufacturing component. The metal continues to be buoyed by its unique position as both an industrial metal in risk-on conditions and a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty, MKS trader Sam Laughlin noted.

In addition to the digital and medical industries, silver also is crucial to the burgeoning solar-power sector.”Silver is increasingly used in solar panels now, Jeremy Wrathall of Investecsaid. Something like 10% of demand comes from solar panels. Solar panels is a growing source of demand for silver, so you have got an additional attraction for silver as well, as a commodity investment and also industrial usage.”

Although silvers profit-taking pullback in the wake ofMondayspowerful surge was expected, the metal likely is building a base for further moves higher as the fallout from the Brexit referendum continues torattle global financial markets.

Negative-yielding sovereign bonds around the world now totalat least $11.7 trillion. Switzerlands 50-year bondhas fallen into negative territoryfor the first time in history. And now the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bondhit a record lowon Tuesday.

Its the only way to find income, Allianz Global Investors bond expert Franck Dixmierlamented. And Morgan StanleyInvestment Management fund manager Jim Caronasked, When you look at pension liabilities, insurance, where are you going to get a positive yield? At this point, its the best the market can do.

So, a roughly 1.3% return over 10 years (not even accounting for inflation) is the best the market can do? You dont have to look far for alternatives. Just look at two of the top-performing assets of 2016: gold and silver. Gold has gained as much as 27%, while silver has returned an astounding 44% at its zenith.

The pension funds and insurance companies Caron cites are woefully underinvested in the precious-metals sphere. Moreover, many are facing huge unfunded liabilities. A Citigroup study published this year found that20 countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developmentare facing liabilities totaling $78 trillion!

Negative yieldswill have a massive and negative effect on most pension schemes funding plans,predictedWarren Firth, actuarial director at Broadstone in the United Kingdom.

If yields continue to fallworldwide, many of these funds will plunge further into a sea of red ink. And if the U.S. economy takes a turn for the worse, or contagion from the Brexit situation spills over beyond Europe, then the Federal Reserve could well beforced to consider negative interest rates.

Yields in even Treasury bonds are so low that we already are seeing negative real interest rates in the U.S. Negative rates are rocket fuel for gold prices, as the World Gold Councilhas demonstrated, while they make business more difficult in many ways for banks as well as pension funds.

A move by the Fed into negative rates could take even more shine off already-anemic Treasury yields. At that point, golds attractiveness as a viable alternative to dismal yields could gain even further ground.

Institutional gold buying by central banks has been a key pillar of support for gold over the past few years. Increasing engagement from pension funds desperately searching for yield could mark the next leg up for a renewed bull market in gold.

Weve already seen high-profile moves into physical gold in recent years from Texasteacher-retirementanduniversity- endowmentsystems, whileJapanese pension fundshave increasingly sought safety in bullion.

Look for interest in gold to grow as investors balk at paying fees to hold government bonds or to keep their money in negative-yielding bank accounts. And should another debt-ceiling debacle dent the faith of global investors in U.S. Treasuries, look for that growing interest in gold to become, potentially, a stampede.

With silver backing off from its blistering July Fourth run above $21, gold finished Tuesday near two-year highs in a fifth straight trading day of gains.

The metal was trading at $1,355 by midafternoon, while silver dropped about 2% to touch $19.89.

And in another sign the concerns over the United Kingdoms Brexit vote are being felt globally, bullion sales at a top Japanese gold retailer, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K.,jumped 1.8-foldbetween June 24 and July 4, versus the previous week.

Gold-linked exchange-traded funds also continue to draw investors who have been bruised by stock-market volatility, with holdingsrising by 500 tonsin the first half of 2016.

“Safe haven demand has continued to grow, Phil Streible of R.J. O’Brientold Reuters. A lot of people believe that global monetary easing worldwide is going to continue.

Indeed, at the epicenter of the Brexit turmoil, the British poundplunged to a fresh 31-year low. Meanwhile, the Bank of England partnered with eight major commercial banks and promised to stand at the ready with more liquidity, saying the fallout has just begun.”There is evidence that some risks have begun to crystallise. The current outlook for UK financial stability is challenging,” itwrote.

And a top European Central Bank official warned that the UK is facing simultaneous inflationary and recessionary forces. In the short term there is a difficult challenge for the British economic and monetary policy between two contradictory challenges: There is the challenge of inflation, with the effects on inflation of the fall of the pound, which is down 11 percent since Brexit, said Francois Villeroy de Galhau.

And then there is recession challenge with the tendency to see less growth due to the uncertainty impact on investments. And it is always very complicated for monetary and economic policy to be caught in this dilemma.

The Bank of Englands governor, Mark Carney, has already hinted that more quantitative easing andinterest-rate cuts are on the way, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts concurred. Given the uncertainty and likely economic downturn, we expect the BOE to use its financial crises play book, they wrote. That means ignoring sterling-driven inflation, quickly taking interest rates to, or close to, zero and subsequently restarting QE.

And here in the U.S., investors were preparing for the release of the Federal Reserves latest minutes, dueWednesday, and also girding forFridaysrelease of the June employment report.

A factory-orders report for May was released Tuesday,showing a 1% drop. Zero Hedge noted that this marks the 19^thstraight monthly year-over-year decline in the metric.In 60 years of historical data, the U.S. economy has never, ever suffered a 19-month stretch of consecutive annual declines, itwrote.

And with the end of June comes the start of another corporate earnings season, with analysts forecasting the longest profit recession since the financial crisis, Londons Financial Timesreported.

With all this pressure on the Fed not to rock a precarious global economy with an interest-rate hike, furthertightening seems off the table for the rest of 2016, at the least. Some experts are even predicting more easing from the Fed in the coming months, with JimRickards of Strategic Intelligencetelling CNBC, Maybe the Feds next move is a rate cut some time next year. Fed chief Janet Yellens needs the weaker dollar to import inflation into the U.S. The Feds nowhere near their inflation target.

As global central banks launch the same old tools to control the Brexit crisis, with bond yields plunging further into negative territory, other gold watchers are predicting new record highs.

“I think over the next 18 months we’ll make new all-time highs,” Swiss Asia Capital’s Juerg Kienersaid. “No, I’m not going to give you a number because I don’t know insane central bankers can be. They are surprising me all the time with new stuff.”

ButChristopher Wood of CLSA is giving us a number. A long-term bullish view is maintained on gold bullion, with the ultimate price target now set at US$4,200 an ounce, Woodtold clientsTuesday.

This is because the view here remains that central banks, including most importantly the Federal Reserve,will not be able to exit from unconventional monetary policy in a benign manner and will remain committed to ongoing balance-sheet expansion in one form oranother. Such policies will ultimately discredit central banks pursuing unconventional monetary policy, threatening the stability and indeed integrity of the current fiat-paper-money system.