Citi also now predicting $1,350 if Brexit prevails Thursday
Posted on — Leave a commentGold continues to cool its heels after the tragic killing of a British Parliament member last Thursday, with the latest polls on a potential United Kingdom Brexit showing that momentum seemingly has swung back to the Remain camp.
We did have momentum until this terrible tragedy, said Nigel Farage, leader of the UKIP party and one of the leading advocates for a Brexit. It has had an impact on the whole campaign for everybody, he said of MP Jo Coxs killing. When you are taking on the establishment, you need to have momentum.
With the Leave camps push slowing at the moment, stocks surged Monday and gold dipped, trading near $1,285 in the afternoon.
Shock waves threaten global growth: However, this is a race down to the wire, and no one knows the outcome. But the ramifications could be huge, with The Washington Post warning this week that Britains departure from the European Union could send shock waves across the global economy and threaten more than a trilliondollars in investment and trade with the United States.
Along with a possible deep blow to the global economy, the Brexits potential to unravel the cohesiveness of the European Union has led another major investment bank to issue a bullish pronouncement for gold prices.
Citi Research says the yellow metal could surmount the $1,350 level if the Leave camp prevails. We believe a Brexit result could see gold prices eventually hit levels above $1,350/ounce even if a proportion of the risk is already baked in to current prices and even if the USD (U.S. dollar) likely rallies on any knee-jerk reaction, its analysts wrote. In our view, gold would rally on potential asset market drawdowns, a spike in vols, further yield compression and greater risk of the Fed being on hold for longer.
Buy the dips, analysts say: Conversely, with hedge funds placing near-record bets on golds continuing upside, investors should expect a pullback in bullion prices if the UK votes to remain, but nothing approximating a crash, Citi added.
Even if the Brexit does not occur, the low-interest-rate environment going forward still favors the metal, which has shown strong support at the $1,200 level. I still think now one has to buy on dips, MKS trader Afshin Nabavi told Reuters.
Gold is more likely to trade lower ahead of the Brexit vote given its strong rally over the last few weeks, added Altavest co-founder Michael Armbruster in comments to MarketWatch. Gold bugs looking to get long may get an opportunity to buy near these levels. The big picture for gold is still quite bullish as real interest rates remain negative nearly everywhere, including here in the United States. We look for gold to make another push higher after the Brexit vote.
Risks are not trivial and are rising: After all, take away the Brexit issues, and fears of a slowing global economy remain. The ratio of the gold price to the slumping copper price has driven home those concerns. And Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg is warning that risks are rising thanks to the 3D: debt, deflation, and demographics.
I may not see a recession around the corner, he wrote in detailing his firms reduction of equities exposure, but I am not exactly whistling past the graveyard either. The risks are not trivial and are on the rise, but even if a downturn is averted, we are likely to remain in a stuck-in-the-mud global economy, with no leadership, diminishing returns from monetary stimulus and still little in the way of a fiscal response.
The bottom line is that the Fed has waved the surrender flag at its meeting last week, and thus higher rates arent coming anytime soon. Indeed, expectations for the next rate hike have been pushed to 2017, 2018, may be even ?? noted Komal Sri-Kumar of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies.
Stay tuned for more clues about the Feds next move as Yellen speaks before a Senate panel this week, but in the meantime, prudent portfolio diversification remains key in the days, weeks, and months ahead.
Feds top hawk morphs into flip-flopping dove to golds benefit
Posted on — Leave a commentThe controversy over the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom has kept some of the spotlight off the Federal Reserves latest meeting, but the ramifications of its no-action vote on interest rates, as well as its ultra-dovish post-meeting statement, are starting to sink in.
In addition to cutting its short-term U.S. GDP forecast, the Fed also lowered the pace of its expected interest-rate hikes for the coming years.
And one speck in particular on the Feds so-called dot plot chart, in which the central bankers rate-hike projections are outlined, caught the eye of Wall Street.
Banker favors just 1 hike through 2018: While every other member projected at least one rate hike this year and gradual hikes over the next two years, these particular dots showed that a participant expected just one rate hike in 2016 and none in 2017 or 2018, Business Insider reported. Then, in the longer-run section that projects interest rates further out than three years, one dot simply disappeared.
That dot belongs to St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who suddenly seems to be distinguishing himself as the biggest flip-flopper among an institution full of data dependent flip-floppers.
Just a few months ago the Feds top members were spewing a hawkish hard-line stance on interest rates, declaring the economy on the mend because of job and GDP growth. Chief among those hawks was Bullard, who warned in March that the Fed needed to raise rates pronto or risk causing devastating consequences in financial markets.
When asset bubble start, they keep going until they blow up out of control with devastating consequences, he said back then.
Signs of capitulation at the Fed: Now, though, the Fed is singing a markedly different tune, and Bullard is its new dovish poster boy. The upshot: Bullard now believes that one rate hike is enough for at least the next two-and-a-half years, Zero Hedge noted. At just a quarter-point, that would put the fed funds rate at only 63 basis points through 2018, if Bullards druthers prevail.
I think the first rate hike cycle is over, CNBCs Steve Liesman said in analyzing the Fed latest diagnosis. What has happened to the rate hike cycle is pretty profound. Its as close to the Fed getting to capitulation as Ive ever seen, about the efficacy of Fed policy, about the outlook for the economy.
Indeed, the Feds contradictory moves this week have prompted blistering rebukes from some major banks, including Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Citi.
Helicopter money in Feds toolbox: Other analysts observed that Fed chief Janet Yellen seems to be coming closer to former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers view that the global economy has entered a low-growth period of secular stagnation. With its rate-tweaking tool kit now nearly exhausted, the central bank could be lurching closer to unconventional policy tools such as negative interest rates and so-called helicopter money, in which the Fed creates money out of thin air for the government to disburse to citizens.
Yellen herself endorsed the latter idea at her press conference on Wednesday, saying, It is something that one might legitimately consider.
What is the Fed seeing in the U.S. economy that might legitimize the use of these potentially dangerous tools? Just look at a few recent headlines from some high-profile news organizations and blogs:
- More Americans see economy worsening than at any time since 2013 (Bloomberg, June 16).
- Obama administration to revise GDP growth down 2% (Breitbart, June 16).
- The world economy looks a bit like its the 1930s (Bloomberg, June 16)
- 15 facts about the imploding U.S. economy that the mainstream media doesnt want you to see (The Economic Collapse blog, June 15)
- The jobs picture is getting even worse, Philly Fed says (CNBC, June 16)
The picture isnt pretty, and with the Fed likely to keep interest rates lower for much longer than anyone was expecting, gold remains a lifeboat for either 1) the deflation that the Feds monetary tools are now powerless to deflect (and might in fact be inducing), or 2) the inflation that economic laws tell us that such tools almost inevitably spark.
Gold targeting $1,350 or higher if Brexit prevails, analysts say
Posted on — Leave a commentGold demand high in every corner: Despite golds pullback, bullish signs of life in the market persist. Open interest, a tally of outstanding contracts in Comex futures, rose to the highest in almost a month, Bloomberg reported. Meanwhile, holdings in gold-linked ETFs have risen for 13 straight days, and silver ETF holdings hit record highs.
European gold dealers are seeing huge demand, and even far from Great Britain, the U.S. Mints bullion sales were robust: On Thursday, 17,500 ounces of gold coins were sold one of the highest jumps of 2016 while 236,000 silver American Eagles were purchased, bringing year-to-date sales above 24.5 million, well on the way to a new sales record.
Brexit could send gold as high as $1,600: A Bloomberg survey of industry players predicted that if the Brexit is approved Thursday, gold could hit $1,350 within a week of the vote. Some bulls think the metal could go even higher, with Zee Gold DMCC chief Jeffrey Rhodes predicting $1,500 to $1,600. Conversely, the metal could dip if the UK chooses to remain, potentially anywhere from $1,250 to the $1,100 range, some analysts say.
But not so fast, other experts say. The Feds new low-rate stance is just one of the building blocks fueling gold beyond the Brexit vote. I dont think an In vote will lead to a collapse in the price of gold, David Govett of Marex Spectron Group told Bloomberg. Theres more to this rally than that.
Gold was rallying before Brexit became a significant possibility, and should continue to do so, added BMO Capital executive Tai Wong.
HSBC sees strong support at $1,220: HSBCs James Steel thinks gold can reach $1,400 if the Brexit is approved, but he sees the downside limited to $1,220 if the UK remains.
If a Brexit is rejected, gold would likely be well supported by a number of outside factors, Steel wrote. These include the ratcheting down in the number of anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes since the beginning of the year, the uneven pace of global economic expansion, uncertainty associated with the U.S. election cycle, and other geopolitical risks not related to the UK vote. These factors may well act to buoy gold regardless of the results of the UK referendum.
Technicals suggest $1,450 ahead: And technical analyst Zev Spiro of Orips Research has been arguing that gold eventually is heading to $1,450 simply by looking at its technical chart patterns.
In March a positive signal occurred in gold as prices moved above the upper-channel line of a two-year-long descending channel, he said on the Futures Now show. The breakout signals higher prices with the minimum expected price objective in the $1,450 area. Now prices could actually trend beyond the minimum objective to test heavy overhead resistance in the $1,525-50 area. Overall outlook is positive, and prices are expected to trend to at least $1,450 within two to three months once we get going.
Gold hits highest level in the UK since 2013 on Brexit fears
Posted on — Leave a commentThe Federal Reserve, which kept interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday, has played second fiddle this week to increasing Brexit fears, which sent gold priced in the British pound to highs unseen since 2013.
With Great Britains largest newspaper, The Sun, coming out in support of a Brexit, or split from the European Union, odds that UK citizens will vote Leave at the June 23 referendum are now at an all-time high.
Large clients lining up: Thus, gold priced in the British pound rocketed higher this week, soaring 8.5% as of June 14 and touching 911.05 pounds, the priciest level since August 2013. Great Britains largest online dealer is reporting some of its biggest sales ever.
We have a number of large clients waiting to place orders, BullionByPost founder Rob Halliday-Stein told Londons Telegraph. Everyone is waiting for the referendum outcome. Gold rises on volatility and we’ve never had a day as volatile as a Brexit day in the gold price market.
Another $1,400 gold forecast: And another investment firm has now joined the ANZ Banking Group in predicting $1,400 gold in the event of a Brexit. James Butterfill of ETF Securities sees as much as an 8.5% price rise if the UK votes to exit.
Brexit would be very beneficial for shorting sterling and we will probably see a big pick up in gold. In that scenario we think gold could hit $1,400, he said.
Butterfill also cited Donald Trumps unpredictable presence in the U.S. presidential elections as well as the Feds interest-rate policy as longer-term drivers for gold beyond the Brexit vote. These are three quite significant risk events, so thats why we are seeing popularity with gold, Butterfill said.
Brexit likened to Lehman collapse: Gold isnt the only place investors are heading for safety. In another sign of rising fear, the CBOE Market Volatility Index, or VIX, jumped the most in six months. Likewise, German 10-year bunds dipped below zero for the first time ever. It tells us that the markets don’t believe that the ECB is going to be able to reflate the European economy, Pimco global strategic advisor Richard Clarida told CNBC.
Regarding Brexit, Morgan Stanley just joined a host of firms outlining various negative aspects of a fracture in the EU, predicting a 15% plunge in stocks. And Hung Tan of the Institute of International Finance warned that a Brexit carries long-term risks akin to the Lehman Bros. collapse. It is not Lehman in the short term in terms of markets being in a panic or chaotic mood, because the central banks will try to pacify that, he said. But it is more significant than Lehman in its longer-term impact on global growth.
ECB could bail out banks: But Peter Boockvar of The Lindsey Group sees immediate painful aftershocks, telling CNBC Tuesday that a global recession will ensue. I dont think any of us really know how this plays out, he said.
And thats one reason why the European Central Bank has suggested that it will do whatever it takes to maintain adequate market liquidity, or backstop financial markets in the event of a Brexit.
Such an announcement from the ECB would come on June 24 if an early-morning result showed that British voters had chosen to leave the EU, Reuters reported. The aim is to underpin investor confidence across Europe and contain further market jitters.
Mushroom effect of a Brexit: And of course, its not just financial markets that are at risk with a Brexit approval; so is the future of the EU itself.
The issue is if the UK leaves, it will be the first country to leave, and that would seem to lower the barrier of exit for other countries, said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. Many people are afraid if the UK leaves, it will trigger a UK political and economic crisis. The government is campaigning to stay. It’s like a vote of no confidence in the government if they vote to leave. People are worried if the UK were to leave, it would trigger an EMU (European monetary union) crisis.
That sounds like a recipe for disaster a recipe that calls for sufficient gold to ride out the volatility ahead as the United Kingdom nears its history-making vote.
Collectors waiting with bated breath for 2016 gold Standing Liberty centennial coins release
Posted on — Leave a commentFollowing the April debut of the 2016-W gold Mercury Dime Centennial coin, the U.S. Mint will be releasing the next item in this celebratory series later this year: the gold Standing Liberty Centennial quarter-ounce coin.
Although the official release date has not been announced, this homage to Hermon A. MacNeils Standing Liberty Quarter design already is generating excitement. As part of its tribute to these legendary coin designs, all of which first appeared in 1916, the Mint also will be distributing a gold reproduction of Adolph A. Weinmans Walking Liberty Half Dollar in a half-ounce version. Stay tuned to Blanchard and Companys Web site for information on both of these new coins availability.
Dont forget to collect the originals: In the meantime, dont overlook the original classic coins on which these 2016 tributes are based. Blanchard and Company currently (as of June 14, 2016) has in stock a 1930 Standing Liberty Quarter with the high grade of MS67, bestowed by NGC, as well as a green CAC sticker of quality assurance. With a Philadelphia mintage of about 5.6 million, this silver quarter was produced in the final year of the series, which would be replaced in 1932 by the Washington Quarter, designed by sculptor John Flanagan for the presidents 200th birthday.
A few changes to MacNeils original design occurred over the years in fact, the prototypes even includes two dolphins at Libertys feet, to represent the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, but they failed to make the final cut.
Nudity nixed in design update: Moreover, the original design showed Libertys right breast uncovered, and more than 12 million were issued before chainmail was added in 1917, either because of complaints about the nudity or as a sign of the times of World War I.
Lady Liberty herself was reportedly modeled after actress Dora Doris Doscher, although a model named Irene MacDowell also claimed the role an assertion that is not widely believed today.
The placement of the 13 stars on the coins reverse also varies according to year. The 1916-17 versions feature stars on either side of the eagle, while subsequent issues locate three stars underneath the eagle.
A few other variants occur, with the raised date on Libertys pedestal being recessed by 1925 because of the wear and tear on earlier versions, while the 1918/7-S overdate remains the rarest of these quarters.
Building a full set is very doable: As one of our most beautiful coin designs, the Standing Liberty quarter is very popular with collectors today, NGC notes. The series is collected in its entirety by date and mint or as part of a 20th Century type set. Unlike many other series, it is still possible to complete a full set in uncirculated condition a valuable treasure that very few people will have the pleasure of owning.
Blanchard and Company also has in stock (as of June 14, 2016) a 1941-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar certified at MS66 by NGC another classic Weinman image that formed the basis of todays silver American Eagle bullion coin design.
You can have the pleasure of owning an original Standing Liberty Quarter or Walking Liberty Half Dollar by calling Blanchard and Company for any that are currently in stock. For a look at all of the current collectible silver coins available, click on this link. And please check in with Blanchards investment professionals for the release date of the gold Standing Liberty Centennial collectible!
Gold strengthens on Fed inaction as experts debate negative rates in U.S.
Posted on — Leave a commentThe Federal Reserve did what was expected Wednesday and left its key interest rate unchanged, weighed down by growing uncertainties over the United Kingdoms June 23 Brexit referendum.
Spot gold, having already priced in the Feds inaction, bounced modestly toward $1,300 by afternoon trading, while the gold futures price touched that key psychological level as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen conducted her post-meeting press conference. Silver was trading near $17.50 in the afternoon.
Emphasizing a gradual and data-dependent pace for future rate hikes, Yellen told the media that “we need to assure ourselves that the underlying momentum in the economy has not diminished.
Central banks losing control: The key takeaway from the Feds statement is that it now only expects to implement a single rate hike this year. Thats a major falloff from earlier projections that saw the central bank hiking as many as four times. Not to mention the fact that back in April, most Fed policymakers were anticipating a move in June.
With rates practically everywhere around the world near zero or even in negative territory even as global growth falters, faith in the Fed and its peers is diminishing. Central banks are losing control and they don’t know what to do … just like the Republican establishment and Donald Trump, said DoubleLine Capital bond guru Jeff Gundlach in a presentation Tuesday. Gundlach sees gold prices heading to $1,400 in the near future.
German bund yield goes negative: Another canary in the coalmine for the global economy occurred Tuesday when the 10-year German bund fell below zero for the first time ever a sign that investors are desperate for safe havens.
Basically, safe havens are back in fashion,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga told Reuters. “The thought process is that if the UK leaves the EU, then the EU might slip back into recession.”
With the Feds purported plan to raise interest rates on hold for yet another month, investors are starting to ask: Can negative rates come to the U.S.?
It likely would take a major crisis for the Fed officially to impose negative rates, but weve seen negative real rates on numerous occasions and theyve been rocket fuel for gold prices.
Real rates can definitely go negative: The World Gold Council confirmed golds outperformance during low and negative rates in a March 2016 study, as has U.S. Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes, who noted that when bullion peaked at $1,900 in 2011, real interest rates were nearly -4%. Gold has historically performed best when real rates turned negative, Holmes wrote in April. To get the real rate, you subtract the current consumer price index (CPI) reading, or inflation, from the government bond yield. When yields are low or negative, as they are now it encourages smart investors to seek other stores of value, including gold.
Some investing pros appearing on CNBC on Tuesday argued that U.S. bonds could be headed for negative territory. Our bonds, by the way, have been negative a long time in a real sense, but not nominal, Max Wolff of Manhattan Venture Partners told the network. I dont see them going nominal negative, although I think theyre going to stay real negative for a while in terms of inflation-adjusted.
Upside is greater in gold: But Dennis Davitt of Harvest Volatility Management sees room for even greater negativity. I think you could see negative rates in the U.S. If Germany and other countries in the world go even further negative, it turns into a number-line game. So where zero lies on the number line, who knows?
With the negative-rate trend gaining steam, golds luster can only increase. Considering the fact that a lot of sovereign debt is negative-yielding now, and investor may say, Why dont I consider gold, for instance? It doesnt yield me anything, but neither does this sovereign debt, and perhaps the upside is greater there, Citibank Singapores Zal Devitre told CNBC.
Gold to $1,400, Barrons experts say: 6 potential catalysts
Posted on — Leave a commentGeorge Soros return to active investing, particularly his bearish bets against the market and bullish stance toward gold, has gotten a lot of press this month.
And he’s not the only wealthy financial guru bracing for the worst with gold. Two Barrons Roundtable members DoubleLine Capital bond guru Jeff Gundlach and Zulauf Asset Management head Felix Zulauf both see at least another $100 gain for the metal.
Gold could rally to $1,400, Gundlach said in Barrons midyear update, while Zulauf concurred, adding, I am bearish on equities and constructive on high-quality bonds. Also, I expect gold to rally this year to $1,400.
Very dangerous time, billionaire says: And Elliott Management chief Paul Singer just gave an interview in which he detailed his pessimistic outlook on the economy and the necessity of gold amid today’s imbalances.
The cure for the crisis for the debt crisis, the financial crisis has been deemed by the developed world governments to be more debt, Singer told Institutional Investor in May. There has not been a deleveraging. And after seven and a half years and counting of this mix of policies, at the moment were either in a stage of stagnation or rollover, possibly in the early stages of a global recession. So I think its a very dangerous time in the financial markets.
Noting that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates without fiscal and governmental reforms, an instant recession would result, Singer likes financial insurance in his portfolio.
Gold is under-owned, Singer confirms: Were very bullish on gold, which is the anti-paper money, of course, and is under-owned by investors around the world, he said. And we are very skeptical about markets. We hedge every equity position. Were not in the mood to be surprised surprised in the sense of losing large amounts of money ever, but in particular now with this extraordinary and unprecedented situation where the stability of financial markets is so dependent on confidence in policymakers and central bankers.
Soros has dabbled in gold throughout the years, and Singer and Zulauf have been consistently bullish in recent years. But as economic uncertainties grow, even former gold skeptics are turning to the metal for safety. Were getting a bit bullish, Charles Newsome of Investec Wealth told CNBC. Having been pretty nervous about it for the last two and a half years or so, we’ve seen a turnaround in the gold price, a bit more strength in it. We’ve looked at gold again. It has always been an insurance asset for us. But with so many fears around, starting with Brexit and on and on, competitive devaluations by major central governments of their currencies, and exchange control from the Chinese gives us the feeling that gold might be a good place to put a small part of your portfolio.
6 events that could pay off for gold: Mohamed El-Erian hasnt been a gold cheerleader, either, but in a recent Bloomberg column, the Allianz SE chief economic adviser (and former PIMCO bigwig) outlines 6 events that could make Soros a winner.
- Brexit: A vote in favor of the U.K. leaving the European Union in the June 23 referendum could have a disruptive impact on markets, El-Erian writes.
- Chinas debt bubble: A major slip by China as it tries to implement financial policies aimed at balancing liquidity support for the economy with the orderly management of a credit boom, soaring internal corporate indebtedness and excesses in the equity markets.
- U.S. presidential election, specifically Donald Trump: Indications that the isolationist tone of the U.S. presidential primaries is more than just rhetoric and posturing, but signals a decisive change in decades of U.S. leadership for economic and financial globalization.
- Currency volatility and manipulation: Large exchange rate moves that, by reflecting wider divergences in the worlds multi-speed economic and policy conditions, spread volatility to financial markets as a whole.
- European banking woes: A renewed scare about the European banks that have lagged in raising capital and strengthening internal operating approaches and have yet to put behind them the legacy of a period of excessive risk-taking.
- Reckless investing fueled by low interest rates: Greater risk aversion among market participants who acting on their confidence that central banks are prepared to continuously step in to ensure stability now have taken on significant mismatches of maturities, assets to liabilities, benchmarks or currencies in their search for higher returns. And this is occurring in markets that have tended to experience periodic bouts of relative ill-iquidity.
With gold at six-week highs and seemingly on the move back toward $1,300 as of Tuesday thanks to rising Brexit fears, investors should continue to brace for black swans as well as the potential risk events outlined above.
2 super-rare New Orleans Mint coins snag total of $622,750
Posted on — Leave a commentTwo 19th-century rare coins one gold, one silver from the New Orleans Mint together brought in more than a half-million dollars at a recent sale in California.
An 1856-O Liberty Double Eagle, certified at AU55 PCGS Secure and noted as a Variety 1, realized $364,250. A member of the 100 Greatest U.S. Coins compendium, the 1856-O is known as arguably the rarest coin minted at the New Orleans facility. Of just 2,250 produced, just a maximum are 30 are thought to survive.
The other top seller was another product of the New Orleans Mint: an 1895-O Morgan Dollar, certified at MS65+ by NGC and sporting a green CAC sticker, that was part of the Rev. Dr. James G.K. McClure Collection. It realized $258,500.
McClure apparently acquired the coin from a bank close to its issue date, and it had not seen the light of day since, according to a CoinWeek report.
The mint produced only about 450,000 of these, and this ones considered the third-rarest in Mint State, as well as tied for the finest specimen in CACs judgment. Its also special in the entire Morgan series because the Philadelphia Mint produced none that year except for about 880 proofs; only San Francisco also minted circulation-issue Morgans in 1895, making just 400,000.
Several other coins broke into the $100,000-plus range, including a 1921-S Walking Liberty Half Dollar, certified at MS66 by NGC, which commanded $188,000; an 1804 Capped Bust Quarter Eagle, certified at AU55 PCGS, which brought in $146,875; an 1822 Capped Bust Quarter Dollar, MS65 PCGS, which sold for $108,687.50; and a 1794 Flowing Hair Dollar, graded as VG10 by NGC, which came in at $105,750.
The market for top-quality coins, such as those listed above, continues to be strong in 2016.Lesser coins, however, are seeing some valleys. As the market continues to decline for some series, it looks like dealers and collectors are heavily pursuing CAC and + graded coins, Numismedia recently noted.
If youre looking for coins with similar high-quality characteristics, search Blanchard and Companys rare coin inventory for the best numismatic selection available anywhere.
Gold tops $1,270 as Brexit fears, bearish Soros spook markets
Posted on — Leave a commentStocks pain was golds gain Friday after a new survey showed that odds are rising of a Brexit as United Kingdom voters prepare to go to the polls June 23.
Gold was trading near $1,275 on Friday afternoon, having gained about 2.7% for the week. Meanwhile, investment giant BlackRock noted a major surge ($5.4 billion) into gold ETFs in May.
The metal is now firmly above $1,260 and on its way to test the $1,300 level again, probably as early as next week, Secular Investor researcher Nico Pantelis told MarketWatch. Gold prices are responding towards slowing economic activity, meager company results and monetary tensions on the rise again.
Golds upswing is sending a warning signal about stocks and the loss of faith in central banks, UCX co-funder Jack Bouroudjian told CNBC. It may have started out as a reinflation trade, but right now it is turning into that flight to quality and flight to safety. It is one of those things that is more than likely going to stop any kind of a move in equities.
Silver surges as ETFs near record: Silver enjoyed an even better week than gold, gaining more than 5% to trade near $17.29 on Friday for its best weekly advance since late April. Not only are silver American Eagle coin sales still selling at a record clip, with more than 24 million purchased this year, but holdings in silver ETFs are nearing an all-time high.
When silver sells off, it sells off faster than gold, but when it rallies, it rallies so much more, RJO Futures strategist Phil Streible told Bloomberg. The physical demand for silver is quite high. And if theres a slump in production, we might see some short squeezes come into play.
With inflation expectations falling ahead of the Federal Reserves crucial policy meeting next week, investment strategist Jim Rickards told CNBC on Thursday that the Fed wont be lifting rates anytime soon quite the contrary. The Feds gotta ease up; theres no way theyre going to raise, at least for the rest of the year, he said.
NIRP supernova to explode: The UKs Brexit referendum also is putting a bid behind gold, with one Reuters headline reading, London appetite for gold bars, coins rises on Brexit nerves.
And the European Central Banks foray into corporate even junk bond buying Wednesday prompted condemnation from several quarters, with Janus bond guru Bill Gross tweeting, Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank blasted the ECBs desperate negative-rate policy, saying it would destroy the European Union.
Icahn echoes Soros bearishness: But perhaps the biggest sign that all is not well with the global economy came as The Wall Street Journal decided to profile billionaire George Soros return to active investing after a long hiatus.
Worried about the outlook for the global economy and concerned that large market shifts may be at hand, the billionaire hedge-fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, it reported. Gold and gold mining stocks have been among Soros most lucrative bets since his return, it noted. Soros concerns especially center on Chinas debt problems and the disintegration of the European Union.
Fellow billionaire Carl Icahn seconded Soros concerns about inflated stock values, telling CNBC, I dont think you can have [near] zero interest rates for much longer without having these bubbles explode on you. You need fiscal stimulus from Congress.
Hedge fund predicts $1,400 gold: And Soros isnt the only hedge-fund manager who is betting on bullion. Citrine Capital Management is bullish overall on gold because the global economy is pretty poor with China as an issue, founder Paul Crone told Bloomberg. Gold could go as high as $1,400 an ounce.
The macroeconomic outlook is weak and the potential for recessions in some economies remains high, he added. China in our view is much worse than people continue to think. We remain concerned that there will be lots of bankruptcies in China.
Early stages of a new bull market: Though not wildly bullish, Swiss investment bank UBS thinks the downside for the gold price is limited over a 12-month horizon, wrote its chief investment officer, Mark Haefele, citing three reasons.
Thats in stark contrast to Sarhan Capital CEO Adam Sarhan, who argues that the entire commodity complex is on the verge of a new supercycle as the dollar weakens.
We are open to any outcome, but until we see any meaningful selling in commodities … we are in the early stages of a new bull market for commodities, he said.
1933 gold Indian Eagle rarity realizes close to $900,000
Posted on — Leave a commentSome $5 and $10 Indian Head gold coins were the highest-priced stars of a recent numismatic sale, with the top seller commanding almost $900,000.
Designed by the renowned sculptor Augustus Saint-Gaudens, the star of the show was minted in the infamous year of 1933, before President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued his executive order calling for Americans to turn in their gold. The 1933 $10 Indian Head Eagle, certified at MS66 by PCGS and featuring a green CAC sticker of quality assurance, realized $881,250 with added buyers premium. Although 312,500 were originally minted, a maximum of only 40 are thought to have survived the government melting pots. Only one other $10 Eagle of this year is graded at MS66, rated by NGC.
Unlike the 1933 Double Eagle, the surviving Indian Eagles are legal for Americans to own, having been minted and released before Roosevelt’s executive order. Thus, they’re free of the litigation and prosecutions that have been associated with the famed 1933 Saint-Gaudens $20 gold pieces.
The second-biggest seller featured the famous incuse design of Bela Lyon Pratt: a 1909-O $5 Indian Half Eagle, graded at MS65 by PCGS and called a condition rarity in higher grades by CoinWeek. With only 34,200 minted, just 1,416 are thought to have survived, with mint-state examples very rare. This coin is among the top-three finest survivors and thus realized $517,000 one of the highest prices paid for any 1909-O.
The third-highest-priced Indian was another Saint-Gaudens, a 1907 $10 Eagle with Rounded Rim, certified at MS65 by PCGS and sporting a CAC sticker. The Rounded Rim coins were produced after the 1907 Wire Edge Eagles, but the Mint wasn’t quite satisfied and melted all but 42 of the pieces. Thus, this example achieved $376,000 at the sale.
Several other important and gorgeous $5 and $10 Indians broke through the $100,000 barrier, while a host of others sold for proportionately impressive prices. If you’re looking for high-quality Indian gold, Blanchard and Company currently (as of June 8, 2016) has quite a few in stock, for example:
- A 1910 Indian Quarter Eagle certified at PR67+ by PCGS and carrying a CAC sticker. This coin is one of just about 492,000 originally minted at the Philadelphia Mint. Lower grade examples are very easy to purchase, but in Gem condition the date becomes quite rare, NGC’s site says. Less than 175 coins have been certified at that level. Superb examples are almost non-existent with only a dozen certified as MS 66 (11/12).
- A 1911 Indian Eagle certified at MS66 by NGC and bearing a green CAC sticker. One of 505,500 produced in Philadelphia. The 1911 Indian Head $10 makes a great type coin, as most are well struck, with minimal marks, NGC notes.
- A 1911-D Indian Quarter Eagle graded at MS63 by NGC. This product of the Denver Mint is one of just 55,680 produced that year in Colorado. This date is the undisputed KEY to the series, the NGC site notes. Because of its low mintage and survival rate, this date brings a healthy price in circulated condition. The 1911D Indian Head Quarter Eagle has by far the lowest mintage and it seems that surprisingly few were saved.
- A 1913 Indian Eagle certified at MS65 by PCGS and sporting a CAC sticker. One of 442,000 such coins originally minted in Philadelphia.
- A 1911-D Indian Quarter Eagle graded at MS61 by NGC. Another example of this small run of just 55,680 coins produced in Denver.
These are just a few of our current offerings featuring the iconic images of the American Indian. In addition to Indian Head coins, our latest numismatic inventory also features numerous Indian Princess gold pieces of various years and denominations.




