The Fed Is Splitting Apart at a Critical Moment

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady today, holding its benchmark Fed funds rate in the 3.5%–3.75% range. However, the bigger story today isn’t the rate decision—it’s the growing disagreement inside the Federal Reserve and what that means for the future of Fed policy, inflation, and the gold market.

The Drama Inside the Federal Reserve

In a rare move, four Fed members publicly dissented with today’s Fed policy statement, which says that the central bank’s next policy move is more likely to be down, not up.

That’s the most dissents we’ve seen in over 30 years. What makes this story even more complex is that the dissents weren’t all on the same side. Three Fed presidents objected to the central bank keeping an “easing bias.” In other words, they don’t think the Fed should be signaling easier policy and interest rate cuts anytime soon because inflation remains high. Meanwhile, a fourth Fed governor—Stephen Miran, and a recent appointee from President Trump— dissented in the opposite direction, voicing support for an interest rate cut.

Key takeaway: Instead of a united vision on how to best steer the economy, we now have a deeply divided central bank. That matters a lot.

Mixed Signals for Interest Rates

On one hand, there’s pressure—from the White House—to lower interest rates. On the other hand, inflation isn’t fully under control. It’s still running around 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target. New inflation risks are emerging every day. The U.S.-Iran war has created a global energy shock and energy prices are rising—which is a major driver of future inflation.

Because of the energy supply shock, some Fed officials have said that cutting rates too soon could make inflation even worse. A few have even suggested that interest rates might need to go higher again if inflation continues to worsen.

Bottom line? The new Fed chairman faces challenging waters to navigate: a divided Fed, and persistent inflation risks. The new Chair who may not have full support to move policy in either direction.

Key Drivers of Gold’s Long-Term Uptrend Remain Intact

We’re still in an environment of elevated inflation, ongoing geopolitical tension, in an era of runaway government debt and global central banks still have had an insatiable appetite to buy gold. The Fed itself is showing signs of internal strain and facing questions about whether the new Fed chair will truly be committed to fighting inflation— at a time when steady leadership matters most. This all adds up to higher gold prices in the months ahead.

The Fed’s Pause Today Creates Opportunity for Precious Metals Investors

In gold and silver today, we are seeing a period of consolidation. After the strong run over the past year, gold and silver are taking a well-deserved breather. This kind of pause in long-term market uptrends is normal—it allows markets to reset and build strength before the next move higher.

For long-term precious metals investors, these consolidation periods are valuable accumulation opportunities. Instead of chasing prices when they’re moving sharply higher, periods like this give you the chance to build your precious metals position strategically and intentionally.

As the Federal Reserve enters this new, more divided phase, one thing is clear: uncertainty is rising. And in uncertain environments, owning real, tangible assets like gold and silver becomes even more important. Do you own enough?

The latest U.S. economic data is telling a story, and it’s not a particularly comforting one. From housing to small business sentiment to producer inflation, several key indicators are flashing economic warning signs.

For investors, especially those thinking about protecting their wealth, this kind of macro-environment deserves a closer look. Let’s look at recent economic news.

Cracks in the Spring Home Selling Market

In March, existing home sales dropped by 3.6%, continuing a soft trend. At the same time, housing inventory rose by 3.0%, suggesting homes are sitting on the market longer. Compared to a year ago, sales are now down about 1%. That might not sound dramatic at first glance, but direction matters, and right now, the direction is downward.

The National Association of Realtors has taken note, lowering its forecast for the housing market this year.

Why this matters: When industry insiders start dialing back expectations, it’s usually a sign that broader weakness could be ahead.

Homebuilders Are Pessimistic

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index fell four points in April to 34. For perspective, any reading below 50 signals pessimism. In other words, builders are increasingly concerned about both current conditions and what’s coming next.

Why this matters: When you put those pieces together, slowing sales, rising inventory, and declining builder confidence, it paints a picture of a housing market losing momentum. Historically, when housing slows, it often drags the broader economy with it.

Small Business Owners Feel Pressure Too

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped three points in March to 95.8, its lowest level since October 2024.

Why this matters: Business owners are reporting rising costs and weaker sales, two challenges that can squeeze profits and slow hiring.

Producer Inflation Saw Big Jump

We probably don’t need to tell you, but inflation pressures are picking back up. The March Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks the cost of goods at the wholesale level, jumped 4.0% year-over-year. That’s the biggest 12-month gain since early 2023.

Why this matters: Because higher costs for producers don’t just disappear, they tend to get passed along to consumers. In other words, today’s rising wholesale prices can become tomorrow’s higher prices at the store.

Slowing Economy and Rising Prices Is Favorable Combination for Gold

Today we’re looking at a rare economic phenomenon that is beginning to unfold: a slowing economy alongside rising price pressures. This environment is often referred to as “stagflation” and it’s historically been a favorable backdrop for gold.

Here’s why. Gold has long been seen as a hedge against inflation. When the purchasing power of paper currency declines, gold tends to hold its value, and often rises. At the same time, during periods of economic uncertainty or slowing growth, investors often turn to gold as a safe-haven asset. Right now, we’re seeing elements of both: economic softness and persistent inflation pressures. That combination can create a powerful tailwind for precious metals over time.

Gold and Silver Are Consolidating After Big Gains

It’s also worth noting that gold has already made a significant move higher in recent months. After reaching new highs, precious metals prices have entered a period of consolidation, essentially moving sideways as the market digests those gains. This kind of pause is normal in a longer-term uptrend. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and periods of consolidation can actually be healthy. They allow the market to build a stronger foundation before potentially moving higher again.

Long-Term Trend Points Higher for Precious Metals

From a big-picture perspective, the long-term trend for gold remains firmly upward. Central bank demand has been strong, geopolitical issues are still boiling over, and now we’re seeing renewed economic concerns layered on top.

For investors, this is where strategy matters. Waiting for the perfect moment can be tempting, but in reality, building a position in precious metals over time often makes more sense, especially in an environment where risks are evolving quickly.

Gold and silver can play an important role in your diversified portfolio. They help you preserve purchasing power, protect wealth and providing stability when other assets face pressure. And right now, the signals coming from the economy suggest that kind of stability may become increasingly valuable.

For investors, this is the optimal time to review your portfolio allocations. Increasing exposure to physical gold and silver can help provide ballast to your portfolio in an increasingly uncertain economic environment. If you’ve been considering adding to your precious metals holdings, now is the time to take a closer look and to take action.

Countries like Turkey and Russia have been among the few central banks selling gold recently. At first glance, that might sound concerning.

But the reason they’re selling offers an important reminder about the value of physical precious metals.

They’re selling gold because they need liquidity fast.

Since the conflict began, Turkey has drawn down about 60 metric tons from its gold reserves, roughly $8 billion worth, to defend the lira, their national currency. Turkey didn’t lose faith in gold. They leaned on it because, in a moment of financial stress, their gold reserves were money they could tap and use immediately.

That same principle that makes gold valuable for central banks also stands true for individual investors. It’s a safe, liquid store of value, one that can be converted into cash when circumstances demand it.

Shaokai Fan, the World Gold Council’s global head of central banks, summed it up well:

“It really emphasizes why central banks hold gold… It’s a liquid asset that typically performs well during periods of uncertainty, and therefore, they can deploy it if needed.”

That principle is timeless, whether you’re a nation defending a currency or a family needing to raise cash. One of gold and silver’s enduring strengths lies in one key trait: it’s liquid money recognized everywhere in the world. You can sell it anywhere in New York or New Delhi, Chicago or Shanghai, and instantly get cash in hand. And that’s what makes it indispensable during a crisis.

Consider how this could apply to you or your family.

A business opportunity comes up suddenly.

Maybe want to move quickly without selling long-term assets at the wrong time. Gold can be a source of liquidity you tap without disturbing your broader portfolio.

A major property issue hits.

A roof replacement at a second home, hurricane damage to a coastal property, or an unexpected repair on an investment property can mean writing a six-figure check fast. For some families, gold can be one piece of a liquidity plan that helps meet that obligation without forcing a sale of stock or real estate.

A sudden need to transfer money across borders.

Perhaps you have a child studying abroad. If there’s a banking disruption, currency pressure, or capital controls, gold can serve as a portable store of value that is recognized almost anywhere.

You want privacy and speed in a stressful moment.

If you’re helping an adult child through a divorce settlement, supporting a family member after a medical emergency, or covering a legal retainer, you may not want to liquidate public holdings or trigger a larger financial event. Gold offers a discreet way to raise cash when timing matters.

You’re preserving family wealth for the next generation.

Some families keep gold as a personal reserve asset because it can be passed down, divided, or sold when needed without depending on a bank, brokerage platform, or market cycle. That makes it useful not just for emergencies, but for estate planning and family continuity.

Physical precious metals are the one asset you own that’s always available when you need it. It’s real money, outside the financial system, that has proven its reliability for thousands of years.

Precious metals aren’t just an investment. Gold and silver are money , the kind that doesn’t depend on banks, governments, or market liquidity to work when you need it most. If there’s a point in your life when you need liquidity, gold gives you choices fast, reliable, private choices. Investors don’t buy gold to sell it… You buy gold so you can use it when it matters most.

If you’ve been watching the headlines, it’s been nerve wracking to say the least. Bombs falling in the Middle East, rising oil prices, strong job numbers, and higher inflation are reshaping expectations for Fed policy and interest rates. Here’s what’s driving financial markets right now and what it means for precious metals investors.

1. Oil Prices Jump, Inflation Fears Are Back

The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has created an energy crisis of huge proportions. The current energy shock is worse than the oil and gas crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022 altogether, said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In March, global oil prices posted their biggest surge in history following the war driven supply shock.

Higher gas and energy prices ripple through nearly every part of the economy, squeezing profit margins, consumer budgets and raising inflation. Americans are seeing this firsthand at the pump. The national average price of gasoline jumped nearly 12 cents per gallon in the last week, averaging $4.06 a gallon on April 6. The national average is up 65.1 cents a gallon from a month ago and stands 85.0 cents per gallon higher than a year ago, according to GasBuddy

What It Means for Gold

Higher energy prices cause inflation and slow economic growth. Gold thrives during inflationary periods and was one of the best performing assets during the 1970’s period of stagflation (slow growth and high inflation).

2. The Jobs Market Is Stronger Than Expected

The March jobs report was much stronger-than-expected. Nonfarm payroll jobs soared by 178,000 in March versus Wall Street’s expectations of a 65,000 increase. The data was gathered before the U.S-Israel war against Iran started, so this is not reflective of the post-war environment. Nonetheless, this suggests the Federal Reserve will likely be on hold for at least several months.

What It Means for Gold

Stay tuned if these stronger job numbers hold up throughout the spring and summer months. The impact of high energy costs will increase inflation and could cause employers to pull back on hiring as they are less able to pass the rising costs along to consumers. Gold typically benefits from a pullback in the jobs market.

3. Mortgage Rates Jump At Start of Spring Home Buying Season

Since the Iran war started, 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged from just below 6% to a 7-month high at 6.46%. Credit card and auto loan rates are also edging up, making borrowing more expensive across the board.

The impact to everyday Americans is real. For example, let’s say you bought a home this week for $398,000, with a 20% down payment and a 6.46% mortgage rate, you’d pay about $2,383 per month. That’s about $100 more per month than you would have paid if you had bought the house in February at a 5.98% mortgage rate. Over the life of the loan, you’d pay about $36,000 more paid toward interest.

What It Means for Gold

Higher borrowing costs slow economic growth as fewer Americans can afford to buy homes, cars or even expensive appliances. Gold benefits during periods of economic stagnation and recession.

4. Fed Policy Outlook Is Changing Fast

Wall Street has dialed back its expectations for interest rate cuts this year. This week, one Fed official, Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, even said if inflation remains elevated, a rate hike could be needed. Markets had priced in multiple interest rate cuts this year, but those expectations are fading fast.

What It Means for Gold

A Fed on hold is neutral for gold. Rising interest rates could be a slight negative for gold. But, on balance given the other macroeconomic influences, a rate hike would not derail gold’s long-term uptrend, especially since the Fed would be hiking in response to rising inflation.

5. The IMF Warns The Global Economy Is Skating On Thin Ice

Higher inflation and weaker economic growth ahead are inevitable for the global economy as a consequence of the Iran war, the head of the International Monetary Fund said this week. Prior to the war, the IMF was expected to increase its expectations of global growth in 2026. Even after the end of the Iran war, severe damage has been done to the global energy supply chain, which could take years to rebuild fully.

“We are in a world of elevated uncertainty,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said pointing to geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, climate shocks and demographic shifts. “All of this means that after we recover from this shock, we need to keep our eyes open for the next one.”

What It Means for Gold

Precious metals are the ultimate safe-haven during global crisis. Gold and silver are a proven store of value and wealth building tool with a 5,000 year track record. As global growth slows and economic geopolitical uncertainty increases, demand for the safety and security of gold and silver will remain strong.

The Bigger Picture: Gold’s Uptrend Remains Intact

Gold slipped about 12% from its high since the Iran war began as traders liquidated precious metals holdings in order to cover losses elsewhere. The modest retreat in gold and silver offers long-term investors the opportunity to trade fewer paper dollars for more physical metals.

The world is increasingly becoming a more dangerous place, several influential policymakers and organizations are warning today. You can benefit today from an increased allocation to precious metals. Gold and silver are smart investments in a dangerous world because they act as safe haven assets that retain and climb in value during wars, geopolitical crises, inflation, and stock market downturns. Precious metals helps to bullet-proof your portfolio to hedge shocks. Don’t wait, this pullback in precious metals won’t last long.

The Timeless Value of Precious Metals

For over 5,000 years, precious metals have stood as a bedrock of financial security. From ancient civilizations to today, gold and silver have proven to be reliable vehicles for storing and growing wealth.

Last year, private investors bought more gold than ever before in history, totaling 2,175 tons, an 84% increase from the previous year. If you are considering buying precious metals or increasing your allocation to gold or silver, consider these ten facts about the state of gold today.

1. Gold is Valuable

The total above-ground stock of gold is estimated at approximately 220,000 tonnes. At the end of 2025 valuations, this entire physical gold stock was worth roughly $31 trillion.

To help you visualize this, if you melted every ounce of gold ever mined into a single solid cube, it would measure about 74 feet on each side, fitting comfortably within the footprint of a baseball diamond.

2. Gold is Virtually Indestructible

Unlike oil which is burned or wheat which is consumed, gold is virtually indestructible. This means that nearly every ounce of gold ever mined throughout human history still exists today.

This permanent above-ground gold stock acts as a massive inventory that can move between jewelry, bars, and technology as market needs change.

3. Gold is Truly Scarce in an Inflationary World

While the above-ground stocks of gold exist, new production grows at a remarkably slow pace. New gold mine production adds only about 1.8% to the total gold stock each year.

This inherent scarcity is a key reason why gold maintains its purchasing power over the long term, especially when compared to fiat currencies that can be printed in unlimited quantities.

4. Gold is a Deep and Liquid Market

There is a common misconception that gold is difficult to trade. In reality, gold is one of the most liquid assets on the planet.

In 2025, gold trading volumes averaged $361 billion per day. This puts gold’s liquidity on par with, and often exceeding, major financial assets like UK Gilts, German Bunds, and even some U.S. Treasury bills.

5. Gold has a unique economic cycle demand

Gold is unique among financial assets in how it reacts to the economy. During periods of economic expansion, pro cyclical demand for jewelry and technology, which accounts for roughly 50% of the gold market, drives growth.

On the flip side, during times of financial or economic crisis, counter cyclical investment demand for gold spikes. This dual nature means that gold sees ongoing demand no matter the economic cycle.

 6. Central Banks are Buying Gold

Gold is a significant official reserve asset. Central banks hold nearly 39,000 tonnes of gold, valued at $5 trillion.

As of 2025, gold accounts for 26% of global allocated reserves. Developed nations hold an average of 30% of their reserves in gold, signaling its status as a tier one reserve asset.

7. Gold Demand is Shifting East

The center of gravity for the gold market has shifted east. Emerging markets, led by China and India, now represent around 50% of annual global gold demand.

Emerging market central banks have increased their gold holdings from just 4% in 2010 to 15% today, as they look to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.

8. Gold is Under-Allocated in Many Portfolios

Gold is an under-owned asset by investors both large and small. Gold bullion makes up only 3% of global financial assets.

Research suggests that up to 30% of investors have no gold allocation at all. This under-allocation means that even a small shift toward gold could have a significant impact, increasing its price as demand rises.

9. Gold Has a Diversified Supply Chain

Gold supply is remarkably stable because it does not rely on a single source. About 74% comes from mining, which is geographically spread across every continent except Antarctica.

The remaining 26% comes from recycling.

10. Adding Gold to Your Portfolio Can Increase Overall Returns

Historical data over the last 20 years shows that adding gold to a portfolio can significantly increase risk-adjusted returns.

While the optimal amount varies, most analysts suggest a strategic allocation of 5% to 10%. This small allocation acts as a powerful diversifier against the volatility of paper assets like stocks and bonds.

Strengthen Your Financial Security with Physical Gold

In today’s world of wars, inflation, stock market volatility, and economic uncertainty, there has never been a more important time to own a physical asset that carries no counterparty risk and cannot be printed endlessly.

Consider strengthening your financial foundation by adding physical gold or silver bars or coins to your portfolio today.

Call Blanchard today. We are here to help you.