The Coin That Captured California’s Golden Dream
Posted on — Leave a commentWhen Gold Changed Everything
In January 1848, a carpenter named James Marshall was inspecting a sawmill under construction along the American River near Coloma, California, when he noticed something glimmering in the water.
At first, it appeared to be nothing more than a few small flakes of metal. But as word spread and the discovery was confirmed, those tiny specks would ignite one of the greatest migrations in American history.
The California Gold Rush transformed a remote frontier into the center of a global movement. Within a matter of years, hundreds of thousands of prospectors, merchants, entrepreneurs, and dreamers poured into California seeking fortune. Some arrived by wagon across the Great Plains. Others sailed around Cape Horn. Many crossed the Isthmus of Panama in hopes of reaching the gold fields faster.
Most would never strike it rich. But the promise of gold changed everything.
The population exploded. New towns appeared almost overnight. San Francisco grew from a small settlement into a booming city. Businesses flourished. Railroads expanded. California’s rapid growth ultimately helped secure its admission to the Union in 1850.
The discovery of gold did more than enrich a handful of lucky miners. It helped reshape the American West.
Seventy-Five Years Later
By 1925, California was preparing to celebrate the 75th anniversary of its statehood.
The state had changed dramatically since the days of canvas tents and muddy mining camps. Railroads connected major cities. Agriculture and industry were flourishing. Hollywood was emerging as a cultural force. Yet Californians remained proud of the event that had launched the state’s remarkable rise.
To mark the occasion, Congress authorized a commemorative half dollar honoring California’s Diamond Jubilee, celebrating seventy-five years since statehood. The coin would serve both as a souvenir and as a tribute to the pioneers whose pursuit of gold helped shape the state’s identity.
A Prospector Frozen in Time
The task of designing the coin fell to sculptor Joseph Mora, often known simply as Jo Mora.
Rather than depict a governor, politician, or famous battlefield, Mora chose a more fitting symbol of California’s origins: the Forty-Niner.
The obverse features a kneeling prospector carefully panning for gold. His sleeves are rolled up. His attention is fixed on the pan before him. The image captures a moment repeated thousands of times during the Gold Rush as hopeful miners searched rivers and streams for signs of wealth.
The design honors the ordinary men and women whose determination helped build the American West.
The Bear That Became a Symbol
If the prospector tells the story of California’s beginnings, the reverse tells the story of its identity.
A massive grizzly bear strides confidently across the coin’s reverse. The animal had long served as a symbol of California and appeared on the state’s famous Bear Flag. Though grizzly bears had largely disappeared from California by the early twentieth century, they remained a powerful emblem of strength, independence, and frontier spirit.
Collectors have long admired the simplicity of the design.
A Celebration for the Entire State
Festivals, pageants, and public celebrations were held throughout the state to commemorate California’s Diamond Jubilee, or it’s seventy-fifth anniversary. The commemorative half dollar became a centerpiece of these festivities, giving citizens an opportunity to own a small piece of the celebration. Coins were sold for one dollar each, double their face value, with proceeds helping support the anniversary events.
The coin was struck at the San Francisco Mint, a fitting location given the city’s deep ties to the Gold Rush era. Although 300,000 pieces were authorized, only 150,000 were struck, and tens of thousands of unsold examples were eventually melted.
What survives today represents only a fraction of what was originally envisioned.
A Design Critics Nearly Killed
One of the most surprising chapters in the coin’s story occurred before it was ever struck.
Not everyone admired Jo Mora’s design. Some members of the art establishment criticized the proposed artwork and argued that a different artist should be selected. The design was even described as amateurish by one prominent reviewer. Fortunately, the committee overseeing the project stood behind Mora’s vision and moved forward with the original concept.
Today, the California Diamond Jubilee Half Dollar is frequently cited as one of the most attractive classic commemorative issues. Many collectors consider its straightforward depiction of California history to be among the strongest designs of the era.
The Enduring Appeal of the Forty-Niner
The California Gold Rush lasted only a few years, but its impact continues to shape the American imagination. Stories of prospectors crossing deserts, climbing mountains, and risking everything for a chance at discovery remain deeply woven into the nation’s history. The Gold Rush represented optimism, opportunity, and the belief that fortunes could be changed through determination and hard work.
The California Diamond Jubilee Half Dollar captures that spirit.
Its prospector reminds us of the dream that drew thousands westward. Its grizzly bear reflects the rugged independence that came to define California. Together, they tell the story of a state transformed by gold and of a nation expanding toward the Pacific.
A century after its release, the California Diamond Jubilee Half Dollar remains more than a commemorative coin. It is a tribute to one of the greatest adventures in American history.
Gold and Silver Surge Higher After U.S. Jobs Growth Hit the Skids in June
Posted on — Leave a commentGold and silver popped higher following news that the U.S. economy added far fewer new jobs than expected in June. 
The disappointing news revealed that only 57,000 new jobs were created last month, versus the 113,000 economists had expected to see at the mid-point of the year.
Job growth in April and May was also revised down a total of 74,000, the Department of Labor said.
Gold gained more than 2%, climbing above $4,065, while silver traded above $60 an ounce. The stock market fell on the news.
The June jobs report was a stark reversal from recent months which saw fairly strong numbers, especially as April and May were revised lower.
The jobs report took center stage for financial markets as the recent narrative has focused around inflation—which remains high and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. If the jobs market continues to slow down, it lowers the chances the central bank will raise interest rates anytime soon.
Digging deeper into the June jobs report, the number of hours worked last month declined, indicating an upcoming slowdown in broader economic activity.
Key takeaway?
What is means for the Fed: The cooler jobs growth and the recent decline in energy prices takes pressure off the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in the next several months, which is a positive for gold. Wall Street largely expects the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting.
Precious metals also gained steam from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s remarks this week that dampened ideas the Fed could hike interest rates in 2026 to combat rising inflation. Gold has been tracking expectations for Fed monetary policy for months.
Fed Chairman Warsh said “inflation risks have come down” at a European Central Bank conference in Portugal. Historically higher borrowing costs are a challenge for non-interest paying precious metals—so Warsh’s comments were seen as supportive to gold.
The historic run in gold took a breather in recent months, but if you look at a 10-year chart you can see the long-term uptrend remains intact. Gold has been testing a key support zone in the $4,000 area and recent action shows eager buyers at this level.
Many on Wall Street and around the globe believe this recent pause in the gold rally was simply a breather, not an end to the long-term uptrend. In a recent research report, European asset management firm Incrementum AG wrote “The future of money lies in its past. ” The firm described gold as an increasingly important monetary anchor as the post-1971 global fiat currency system reveals “unmistakable signs of fatigue.”
“The Pax Americana — that political, military, economic, and above all monetary order that has shaped the global system since 1945 — is drawing to a close,” the report said.
Gold is serving as a neutral reserve asset in the rapidly changing global order. What’s more, the historic role of government bonds as a “risk-free asset” is quickly dissolving as inflation-adjusted returns sink to deeply negative levels. This is creating an environment where investors are seeking alternative stores of value, and are shifting out of U.S. Treasuries into gold.
The firm pegged a target of $8,900 for gold by the end of the decade, or less than four years from now.
British Sovereign Gold Coin: Mint Marks and Monarchs Through 200 Years of History
Posted on — Leave a commentThe British Sovereign gold coin struck in 2025 carries the exact weight, purity, and gold content of one minted in 1817, an almost unmatched continuity in global coinage. This 22-carat gold classic has moved through multiple monarchs, two world wars, and the full arc of the British Empire, all while maintaining its specifications with remarkable precision. Yet this uniformity disguises a surprisingly complex series. Differences in mint marks, monarch portraits, and production periods mean that coins which appear identical at first glance can vary dramatically in rarity and value. This guide outlines how to identify Sovereigns across eras, the role of worldwide mint locations, and what separates standard bullion pieces from the numismatic coins that command meaningful premiums.
What Is a British Sovereign Gold Coin?
The British Sovereign represents one of history’s most enduring gold coins, combining consistent specifications with evolving designs that reflect two centuries of British monarchy.
Historical Context
The modern British Sovereign emerged in 1817 during Britain’s Great Recoinage, a comprehensive reform of the nation’s currency system following the Napoleonic Wars. The name itself references earlier English gold sovereigns minted from the late 15th through the 17th centuries, connecting the new coin to centuries of British monetary tradition. Created as legal tender with a face value of one pound sterling, the Sovereign became a cornerstone of the British Empire’s monetary system, circulating throughout territories from London to the furthest colonial outposts.
Specifications That Never Changed
The physical characteristics of the British gold Sovereign coin were established in 1817 and have remained constant for more than 200 years. Each coin weighs exactly 7.98 grams with a diameter of 22.05mm. The gold content is 7.32 grams of pure gold – equivalent to 0.2354 troy ounces – achieved through 22-carat purity (91.67% gold alloyed with copper). This copper addition provides durability for circulation while maintaining substantial gold content.
These specifications remained fixed for practical reasons: consistency enabled international trade, as merchants and banks worldwide could rely on the Sovereign’s exact gold content without testing individual coins. The standardization also facilitated the coin’s role in the gold standard system that dominated international finance through the 19th and early 20th centuries. A Sovereign from 1820 could circulate alongside one from 1920 with identical intrinsic British Sovereign gold coin value, creating remarkable continuity across a century of political, technological, and social transformation.
Watch this video for an accessible introduction to the British Sovereign gold coin.
The Iconic Design: St. George and the Dragon
The Sovereign’s enduring visual identity stems from designs that balance consistency with monarchical evolution.
Benedetto Pistrucci’s Masterpiece
Image: Benedetto Pistrucci, the Italian engraver who designed the iconic St. George and the Dragon reverse.
Source: The Royal Mint
An Italian engraver working at the Royal Mint created what would become Britain’s most recognizable coin image. Benedetto Pistrucci’s 1817 design depicts St. George mounted on horseback, slaying a dragon with a sword, a scene symbolizing the triumph of good over evil and, by extension, British strength and virtue. The composition’s classical style and fine detail established an artistic standard that has defined the British gold Sovereign coin for two centuries.
While Pistrucci’s St. George reverse became the default design, not all Sovereigns feature it. Victorian issues from 1838 to 1887 used a shield reverse displaying the royal arms, and occasional commemorative or special releases have featured alternative heraldic designs. These variations create distinct collecting categories within the broader Sovereign series.
Obverse Portraits Across Monarchs
The obverse carries the reigning monarch’s portrait, evolving with each succession and sometimes within a single reign. Long-reigning monarchs like Victoria and Elizabeth II appeared in multiple portrait styles – young head, jubilee, and veiled/old head versions reflecting their aging and different artistic approaches across decades. Each portrait change from George III through Charles III captures period-specific artistic conventions, creating visual markers that help collectors instantly identify a coin’s era even before checking the date.
The Monarchs of the Modern British Gold Sovereign Coin
Since 1817, nine British monarchs have appeared on Sovereigns, each reign creating distinct collecting opportunities based on production span, mintage levels, and historical circumstances.
George III (1817-1820)
George III Sovereigns represent the series’ inaugural issues, struck during the final years of his reign. Their status as first modern Sovereigns gives them inherent collector appeal, though the short production window and two-century age create natural scarcity that commands premiums over later common dates.
Image: 1817 George III Sovereign showing the first modern Sovereign design.
Source: Heritage Auctions
George IV (1820-1830)
George IV appears in two portrait styles: bare head and laureate (crowned with laurel) head variations. Production remained relatively consistent through the decade, making these coins moderately available today, though still significantly scarcer than Victorian issues.
William IV (1830-1837)
William IV’s brief seven-year reign produced the scarcest mainstream British Sovereign gold coin monarch. Limited production years mean these coins command substantial premiums regardless of condition, with even worn examples valued well above gold content due to genuine rarity.
Victoria (1837-1901)
Victoria’s 64-year reign dominates vintage Sovereign availability. Three distinct portrait types – Young Head (1838-1887), Jubilee Head (1887-1893), and Old or Veiled Head (1893-1901) – reflect her aging across the era. The Young Head period used a shield reverse rather than St. George, creating a major design distinction. High production volumes, particularly in later decades, make Victorian Sovereigns the most accessible vintage issues for collectors today.
Image: Victorian Sovereign showing Queen Victoria’s Veiled Head or Old Head portrait design.
Source: Numista
Edward VII (1901-1910)
Edward VII’s nine-year reign created moderate scarcity – shorter than Victoria but longer than William IV. Consistent design throughout the period simplified production, though colonial mint output during this era holds particular significance for collectors focused on branch mint issues.
George V (1910-1936)
World War I dramatically impacted George V British Sovereign gold coin production. Pre-war mintages were substantial, but wartime demands reduced output significantly. The 1925 and later dates show particular scarcity as Britain moved away from gold circulation, making post-1920s issues notably harder to find.
George VI (1936-1952)
George VI Sovereigns are exceptionally rare. Only proof specimens were struck in 1937, followed by complete wartime cessation. Limited post-war resumption means any George VI Sovereign represents a significant numismatic prize, with circulation strikes virtually nonexistent.
Elizabeth II (1952-2022)
Elizabeth II’s 70-year reign saw British Sovereign gold coin production resume as bullion rather than circulating currency. Brief output in 1957-1959 preceded regular annual production from 1974 forward. Five different portrait designs across her reign reflect evolving artistic styles. Modern production volumes make these the most common Sovereigns available, serving both bullion investors and collectors.
Charles III (2022-Present)
Charles III Sovereigns debuted in 2022 with strong collector interest in first-year issues. The design maintains St. George and the Dragon on the reverse while introducing the new monarch’s portrait, continuing two centuries of Sovereign tradition into a new reign.
Understanding Mint Marks: Where Was Your Sovereign Made?
A tiny letter on the reverse can multiply British Sovereign gold coin value several times over, as mint marks identify which facility across the British Empire struck the coin.
London Mint: The Unmarked Standard
Sovereigns without mint marks originated at the Royal Mint in London, the default production facility. London historically produced the highest volumes, making unmarked Sovereigns generally the most available for any given date. While London coins don’t carry scarcity premiums based purely on origin, they remain the baseline against which branch mint issues are compared.
Branch Mint Production Across the Empire
Britain established colonial mints to convert locally mined gold into coinage, reducing shipping costs and supporting regional economies.
Sydney (S)
Australia’s first mint struck British Sovereign gold coin pieces from 1855 through 1926, spanning the gold rush era and beyond. High production volumes make Sydney Sovereigns relatively available, though strong collector demand from the Australian market supports premiums over London issues.
Image: Victorian era Australian Sovereign showing the distinctive shield reverse design used before St. George.
Source: Numista
Melbourne (M)
Operating from 1872 to 1931, Melbourne produced substantial quantities with notable year-to-year variation. Certain dates command significant premiums due to lower mintages, making Melbourne mint marks worth careful examination.
Perth (P)
Perth’s 1899-1931 production span makes it the latest-starting Australian mint. Generally lower volumes than Sydney or Melbourne create inherent scarcity, with Australian collectors particularly focused on completing Perth date runs.
Bombay (I)
India’s mint produced Sovereigns in 1918 only, making any Bombay-marked coin extremely rare. These command premium multiples reaching five to ten times comparable London examples.
Ottawa (C)
Canadian production from 1908 to 1919 created limited-year scarcity that appeals to both British and Canadian collectors, with premiums reflecting genuine rarity rather than speculative demand.
Pretoria (SA)
South Africa’s Pretoria Mint struck Sovereigns from 1923 to 1932. Most issues carry the “SA” mint mark, though a few early pieces can be identified by subtle design features rather than a visible mark. Production volumes were moderate, giving collectors accessible branch-mint options without extreme premiums.
Key Dates and Rare Sovereigns
Specific years and mint combinations create significant value premiums based on mintage levels and historical circumstances, with British Sovereign gold coin price varying dramatically depending on date and mint mark.
Victorian Era Rarities
Several Victorian Sovereigns stand out for exceptionally low mintages or unique production circumstances. The 1841 London issue remains one of the rarest circulation Sovereigns ever struck, while the 1863 London coin without a die number represents another major rarity due to its extremely limited surviving population. The 1879 Sydney Sovereign is the great Australian key date of the era, produced in very small quantities and highly prized by collectors.
Edwardian Through George VI Keys
Moving into the early 20th century, Edward VII’s 1902 Matte Proof is a special striking with a distinctive satin finish. George V wartime issues – particularly the 1917 London Sovereign – show sharply reduced mintages, while 1920 London continues the trend of post-war scarcity. The one-year 1918 Bombay issue and select low-mintage Ottawa dates command strong premiums. For George VI, only the 1937 Proof was struck; no circulation issues exist, making any genuine specimen a significant numismatic piece.
Modern Rarities
Elizabeth II’s era includes certain low-mintage dates and special proof issues, especially from the 1980s and 1990s, though none approach the scarcity of pre-1953 key dates.
British Half Sovereign Gold Coin: The Smaller Alternative
Half Sovereigns offer an accessible entry point into British gold coinage while maintaining the full Sovereign’s design integrity and historical continuity.
Specifications and Design
Weighing 3.99 grams, i.e. precisely half the full Sovereign, and measuring 19.30mm in diameter, the British Half Sovereign gold coin maintains the same 22-carat purity and proportional gold content. Designs mirror their full-sized counterparts: the St. George and the Dragon reverse (with the same exceptions, such as Victorian shield issues) and the corresponding monarch portraits across the same reigns.
Production and Collecting Appeal
Half Sovereigns were struck in parallel with full Sovereigns, following the same portrait changes and mint mark variations. Production volumes were often significantly lower, creating inherent scarcity that is sometimes overlooked by collectors. This relative neglect can create opportunities: Half Sovereigns frequently trade closer to bullion value despite comparable (or occasionally greater) rarity, making set-building or era-focused collecting far more achievable on modest budgets.
British Sovereign Gold Coin Collecting Strategies
Collectors approach Sovereigns through multiple pathways depending on budget, interest, and goals.
By Monarch
Assembling one British Sovereign gold coin from each reign creates a focused collection that spans more than two centuries of British history. This approach offers a clear structure: Victoria and Elizabeth II provide abundant affordable options, while earlier monarchs such as William IV and later figures like George VI present significant challenges due to scarcity and corresponding premiums. Collecting by reign delivers historical breadth without the cost or complexity of pursuing complete date runs.
By Mint
Pursuing all mint marks creates a geographically diverse collection reflecting the British Empire’s extent. Alternatively, focusing exclusively on branch mints or limiting to London production narrows scope while maintaining coherent themes.
By Date Run
Complete date runs require commitment and capital. Victorian sets span decades but remain feasible given high production volumes. Edward VII’s short reign makes complete runs achievable for dedicated collectors. Modern Elizabeth II collections from 1974 forward offer completable goals without confronting 19th-century scarcities.
Type Collecting
Focusing on major design types, such as Victoria’s three portrait styles, shield versus St. George reverses, or significant portrait changes across monarchs, creates visually distinct collections without exhaustive date pursuit.
Investment Grade
Concentrating on common dates in exceptional grades combines bullion value with numismatic appreciation potential, with the current price of British gold Sovereign coins in high grades offering accessible entry points for quality-focused collectors. Modern proof sets offer pristine examples with presentation packaging, appealing to collectors seeking quality over historical depth. Sovereigns fit within a broader precious metals investment strategy that can include both bullion and numismatic pieces across different asset categories.
Conclusion
The British Sovereign’s two-century consistency in weight, purity, and gold content creates a collecting landscape where specifications remain unchanged, yet historical context, monarch portraits, and mint locations generate remarkable variety. From George III’s inaugural 1817 issues to the modern strikes of Charles III, Sovereigns blend intrinsic gold value with deep numismatic significance across multiple reigns and seven historic mints. The value of British sovereign gold coin pieces depends on both precious metal content and numismatic premiums from scarcity and historical importance. Explore Blanchard’s Royal Mint gold selection to add coins to your portfolio where centuries of history combine with enduring gold value.
FAQs
1. How much is a British Sovereign gold coin worth?
Common-date Sovereigns trade close to their gold content value, while scarce dates, rare mint marks, and key monarchs command substantial premiums above British Sovereign gold coin melt value. Value depends on the specific year, mint location, monarch, and condition.
2. What is the weight of British gold sovereign coin pieces?
British Sovereign gold coin weight is 7.98 grams total, containing 7.32 grams of pure gold at 22-carat purity. These specifications have remained unchanged since 1817.
3. What is the difference between a Full Sovereign and Half Sovereign?
A Half Sovereign contains exactly half the gold content and weight of a full Sovereign while maintaining the same 22-carat purity and proportional design. Half Sovereigns offer a lower-cost entry point with similar historical significance.
Could Private Credit Defaults Trigger a 2008-Like Crisis?
Posted on — Leave a commentAre you looking for a movie to watch this weekend? Consider the 2015 movie The Big Short, starring Brad Pitt, Steve Carell, Christian Bale, and Ryan Gosling, which outlines the triggers of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis,
along with dark comedy and celebrity cameos. Why is this worth watching? Today, risks bubbling up in the private credit market are triggering concerns that another financial crisis could be brewing behind the scenes.
2008 financial crisis impact: Risks bubbling up in the private credit market are triggering concerns that another financial crisis could be brewing behind the scenes.
2008 financial crisis impact
By the numbers, the economic impact of the 2008 financial crisis was staggering. The stock market plunged 50%, 8.8 million Americans lost their jobs, home values fell by 30%, and over 16 million homes went into foreclosure.
Gold then and now
Looking back, gold pulled back as the 2008 financial crisis started. Why? Hedge funds, banks, and institutional investors faced margin calls and sold gold to raise cash. Gold provided liquidity in a crisis—one of the key attributes of a safe-haven asset—but then the precious metal rocketed higher. After touching $700 an ounce in October, gold soared in a multi-year bull market to a record high above $1,900 an ounce in 2011.
Today, gold is in a consolidation phase, faced with the headwinds of higher Federal Reserve interest rates to combat inflation. Gold had been priced in expectations of Fed rate cuts this year, so now we are seeing a “repricing” of interest rate expectations with a slightly lower price in gold.
The private credit story
Now getting back to private credit…Behind the scenes in recent years, private credit issuance has exploded. What is private credit?
It’s a form of lending provided by private equity firms to companies. These are loans that are not traded on the public markets. All sorts of borrowers, from insurance companies to health care firms to software technology companies, have borrowed over $40 trillion from private credit lenders. The U.S. life insurance industry has become extremely exposed, with 20% of the industry’s holdings held in the most illiquid kind of fixed-income investments, according to a new study by Moody’s Corp.
The risks?
Private credit loans are unregulated. There is no secondary market to trade this debt. As these loans have exploded in size and across industries in recent years, concerns about defaults and losses are piling up, especially if AI disruption creates more volatility in the stock market.
Just this week, alternative asset manager Apollo Global Management limited withdrawal requests from its largest non-traded private credit fund after investors asked to redeem 17% of the fund’s assets.
The bottom line
While much of this may sound arcane and complicated, just as it was in the 2008 financial crisis, stretched equity valuations leave us all vulnerable. Runs on private credit funds could freeze up credit, and spillover contagion could flow into traditional lending, stock, and bond markets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve faces less policy flexibility today than in 2008, given high inflation and the massive government debt burdens.
Time to make the popcorn
As one hedge fund manager said in the movie The Big Short: “Our investment strategy was simple. People hate to think about bad things happening, so they always underestimate their likelihood.” Many Americans today are unaware of the stress growing in the private credit sector. Others may underestimate what could happen.
When it happens (and history shows there’s always another financial crisis ahead), gold can protect and grow your wealth, just as it did for investors in 2008 when it climbed from $700 to over $1,900 an ounce. Check out the movie. And, consider how increasing your allocation to gold today at favorable pricing levels could protect and grow your wealth when the next financial crisis rolls around. Pass the popcorn.
Survey: 89% See Global Central Bank Gold Reserves Climbing Over Next Year
Posted on — Leave a commentCentral banks bought an average of 1,000 tons of gold over the past four years, up significantly from the 500t average over the last decade. This marked a big jump in physical gold buying as geopolitical and economic uncertainty soared around the globe.
Central bankers aren’t done buying gold, not by a long shot. Over the next 12 months, 89% of global central bankers expect official gold reserves to climb, according to a new survey of central bankers conducted by the World Gold Council this spring.
Global central banks could seem like a group of faraway, opaque organizations that no one really knows much about.
This new survey directly asked central bankers themselves for their thoughts on gold, peeling back some of the secrecy that can exist around official reserve decisions.
Here’s why you should take a closer look on what central banks have been quietly doing, behind the scenes in recent years.
Global central banks aren’t trying to day trade precious metals—they are trying to de-risk their portfolio reserves. In recent years, central banks have been buying gold systematically, regardless of price. They’ve moved away from owning U.S. Treasuries and dollar-denominated assets and moved into owning gold, which is not beholden to or controlled by any country or government.
Here’s what the central bankers told the World Gold Council in a survey ending May 19. Notably, most of the central bankers’ responses were received after the start of the U.S. war against Iran.
Forty-five percent of all central banks said their own gold reserves will increase in the next 12 months. Fifty-three percent of emerging markets central banks said their own gold reserves will increase in the next 12 months.
Key reasons central bankers say they own gold:
- Performance in times of crisis: 90%
- Long-term store of value: 84%
- Effective portfolio diversifier: 83%
- Diversification policy: 80%
- Geopolitical risk hedge: 78%
More Gold, Less U.S. Dollar Holdings Ahead
What’s more, the central bankers expect gold accumulation trends to continue. Over the next five years, 84% of the central banks surveyed expect gold reserves to be higher. Meanwhile, 74% of central banks said they see moderately or significantly lower U.S. dollar holdings within global reserves over the next five years.
The U.S. dollar was the main fiat currency with a target on its back. Levels of central banks holdings of the euro and renminbi were expected to be unchanged five years from now.
Central banks buy gold for many of the same reasons that individuals like you want to own physical precious metals. Physical gold and silver are tangible assets that carry no credit or counterparty risk, they remain a trusted and recognized assets around the world when fiat currencies go up and down.
When you own gold, you own it. No one can freeze your asset and devalue your gold. Gold and silver are physical, borderless assets. Physical precious metals exist outside the digital banking system, making them immune to asset freezes or financial sanctions imposed by any nation.
Physical gold and silver carry no default risk. Unlike paper currencies, government bonds, or other securities, physical gold does not depend on an issuing institution’s ability to pay its debts. It holds intrinsic value that cannot be devalued by central bank printing presses.
Precious metals act as liquidity in times of crisis. Gold and silver are highly liquid assets that are universally recognized. In times of financial distress, you can sell precious metals anywhere quickly and privately.
Historical trust. Civilizations have trusted gold as a store of value for thousands of years. Central bank managers today use this legacy to instill confidence in a nation’s economic stability. Individual investors have peace of mind that precious metals have a 5,000-year proven track record of preserving and growth wealth.
On Wall Street, there’s an old saying: “Don’t fight the trend.”
Today, central bankers are trusting and investing in gold and plan to continue to increase gold reserves looking five years into the future. Central bankers are some of the longest timeframe investors on the planet. They don’t buy and sell gold based on short-term events or price movements—they buy gold to preserve and protect their nation’s wealth.
The recent pullback in gold prices created opportunity for long-term individual investors like you. Have you considered locking in some profits in the toppy stock market and rolling that over into precious metals? It’s never an actual profit until you take it. If the stock market is down 50% a year from now, like it was after the Dot.com crash in 2000, you’ll be happy you rolled some of that money into precious metals.
What will the new Fed Chair’s approach mean for markets?
Posted on — Leave a commentFederal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Hints at 2026 Rate Hike
There’s a new sheriff in town at the nation’s central bank. Under the leadership of new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, the central bank voted today 12-0 to hold interest rates steady at 3.5-3.75%. There were some surprises.
The big news that caught investors off guard today?
Through the closely watched “dot plot” grid, Fed officials removed their previous forecast for an interest rate cut this year and indicated that a rate hike was possible. Investors were surprised at how sharply the new forecasts tilted toward interest rate hikes this year.
However, one Fed committee member failed to submit a forecast.
The missing dot
At first, there was a mystery around a missing dot on the projections chart. Usually, there are 19 projections or “dots” on the Fed’s interest rate chart, versus today’s 18.
The new Fed Chair Warsh opened his press conference, confirming that he declined to submit a “dot,” indicating his future rate hike expectations. That explained why there were only 18 projections instead of the usual 19.
Nine out of the 19 committee members (not all of whom are allowed to vote) said they expected an interest rate hike this year. That’s a big shift from March, when no Fed official called for an interest rate hike.
Markets react
The news took the financial markets by surprise as the rate projections were tilted more strongly toward hikes than investors expected. Gold slid modestly, as the precious metal benefits from lower interest rates, as a non-interest-bearing asset. Stocks and bonds took a hit, and Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar rose after the decision.
A new approach to Fed communication
Today’s meeting revealed how the new Fed Chair Warsh is putting his stamp on central bank forward guidance. The new approach comes down to “less talking.” Warsh has said he would like to see fewer Fed press conferences and fewer Fed officials’ public speeches.
Today’s first Fed policy statement under Chairman Warsh was notable for its brevity. Today’s statement was slimmed down to a mere four paragraphs with a brief review of economic conditions.
“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little,” the Fed committee said.
Meanwhile, “inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability,” the committee added.
What does this new approach mean for markets?
In the past, Fed officials aimed to be transparent as possible, providing financial markets guidance on what could lie ahead for interest rate policy. Now under the new Fed Chair it could become more of guessing game. This could open up the financial markets to more volatility as investors attempt to read between the lines.
What this means for gold investors
Inflation remains high. The consumer price index jumped to 4.2% in May, well above the Fed’s 2% target. If the U.S.-Iran war winds down this week as expected, could that allow energy prices to come down quickly? Only time will tell. The new Fed Chair is trying to buy some time to see if inflation will fall on its own without a rate hike.
As is typical in the summer months, gold is consolidating below its record-high hit earlier this year. These quiet summer months are an excellent time to review your portfolio and add to your investments. Buying gold and silver now in this quiet period allows you to increase your allocation to precious metals in a stable environment, instead of chasing prices higher along with the crowd later this year.
As the brilliant American financier Bernard Baruch once said: “Buy straw hats in the wintertime. Summer will surely come.” This long revered investing principle advocates for contrarian thinking—buying assets when they are out of season and inexpensive in anticipation of future demand.
Gold has slipped off its high in recent weeks, but Wall Street has not changed its 2026 year-end targets for gold. JP Morgan still sees gold at $6,000 to $6,300 by year-end, Deutsche Bank forecasts gold at $6,000 and UBS pegs gold at $5,900—which would be double-digit gains from current levels. Straw hats are on sale today.
U.S. Inflation Soars Above 4%, Hitting 3-Year High. Global Central Banks Take Action
Posted on — Leave a commentInflation is heating up again. The cost of gas at the pump has spiked, and so have prices for everyday goods and services. Middle-class Americans continue to struggle with the high cost of living.
U.S. consumer inflation in May jumped at the fastest pace in over three years, climbing to 4.2% from a year ago, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released this week. Inflation isn’t just rising here in America. Rising inflation is a worldwide event caused by the U.S. war against Iran.
Since the start of the U.S. war in Iran in February, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key oil tanker transport route off Iran’s southern coast has crippled the global energy supply chain. Inflation is rising around the world due to higher energy costs.
Europe takes action against inflation.
Notably, the European Central Bank raised interest rates in June, marking a big move to fight against rising inflation. The European Central Bank, which sets policy for the 21 countries that use the euro, lifted its key interest rate by a quarter point to 2.25%. It was the first interest rate hike by the ECB since September 2023.
Before the U.S. attacked Iran in February, inflation in the eurozone was close to the central bank’s 2% target. In May, it jumped to 3.2%.
Central bank officials in Europe are acting fast to rein in rising consumer costs as the higher energy prices feed into higher prices for food and other everyday consumer items.
Global central banks are moving fast.
The ECB isn’t the only global central bank raising rates to fight inflation from the Middle East war. Since February, the South African central bank, and Australia and Norway have also bumped their key interest rates higher to try to tame rising inflation caused by higher energy prices. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise interest rates later in June.
Recession ahead?
The longer the U.S.-Iran war continues, economists predict that higher inflation, slower economic growth and even recession could loom ahead.
Gold has softened in recent weeks amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer to battle the rising inflation Americans now face every day. Because gold is a non-yielding asset, it is more sensitive to expectations for interest rates changes.
Five years later, Fed still hasn’t won battle against inflation.
In the U.S., inflation has been above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate for five years. The current run of above-target inflation is the longest since the central bank adopted the 2% target level in 2012.
Will the Fed follow other global central banks in the fight against inflation with higher interest rates this year? That remains to be seen and the Fed’s new chairman Kevin Warsh faces tough challenges and a delicate balancing act with a White House that has been asking for lower interest rates.
What rising inflation means for you?
Inflation erodes the purchasing power of the dollars that you spend every day. Your dollar buys less today than it did last year. That means you need to spend more money to maintain your same standard of living.
How can you protect your purchasing power?
Historically, gold tends to perform better during times of extreme or unexpected inflation, as well as heightened geopolitical volatility, both of which we are seeing now. Recently, gold more than doubled in the two years through the end of 2025, easily outpacing consumer inflation and also beating the stock market.
The key driver? Inflation concerns following the Covid-19 supply chain inflation shock of 2021-2022, which the Fed has never fully vanquished.
Gold’s price today offers opportunity for investors
Gold has drifted lower on profit-taking by short-term traders in recent weeks. If you buy gold today, you are trading fewer dollars for more gold, and get more inflation protection for the future.
While global central banks are moving fast to rein in inflation, it’s not clear the Fed will follow suit. You can’t control the Fed, or inflation, but you can control your diversification strategy. Inflation protection is on sale right now with the recent pullback in gold. Contact Blanchard today if you’d like to discuss the economic outlook or to get personalized portfolio recommendations to help you meet your long-term financial goals.
Peter Boockvar on Inflation, Oil, Debt, and Why Gold Still Matters
Posted on — Leave a commentThe economic landscape continues to be shaped by major forces, from geopolitical conflict and rising energy prices to growing government debt and inflation concerns.
Recently, we had the opportunity to sit down with Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, editor of The Boock Report on Substack, and CNBC contributor.
Our conversation covered some of the biggest questions facing investors today, including the economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East, the future of energy prices, the growing burden of government debt, and why gold and silver continue to attract attention from investors and central banks around the world. Here is what he had to say.
Q: Looking forward, what are the long-term dangers to the U.S. economy that are already baked into the equation of the war but are still not being seen by the consumer?
A: Every day that passes without the Strait of Hormuz fully reopening results in lost supplies of key commodities such as crude oil, nitrogen, sulfur, aluminum, helium, naphtha, and phosphate. We’ve been able to manage this so far, but the risks of meaningful supply shortages are growing. While consumers may not yet be feeling the full impact, prolonged disruptions can eventually work their way through supply chains, leading to higher costs for businesses and ultimately higher prices for households.
Q: If the war doesn’t end soon, what are the long-term economic dangers to the U.S. and the world?
A: In that case, prices will rise notably, particularly crude oil, creating additional inflationary pressure and economic pain points around the world. Higher energy costs affect nearly every sector of the economy, from manufacturing and transportation to agriculture and consumer goods. The longer these pressures persist, the greater the risk of slower economic growth alongside elevated inflation.
Q: Has the war created a new normal for the oil market?
A: I believe so. I think $85 per barrel is the new $65. Even when the war ends and the Strait fully reopens, we’re likely to see global stockpiling of crude oil and other key commodities for the next several years. Governments and businesses have been reminded of how vulnerable supply chains can be during periods of geopolitical instability, and that lesson is likely to influence purchasing and inventory decisions well into the future.
Q: The WSJ just reported that U.S. debt has surpassed GDP, and that the government is currently spending $1.33 for every dollar it brings in. What are the real-world ramifications for U.S. investors, and what should they do to protect themselves long term?
A: Excessive debt and deficits only matter when they do. That said, I believe investors are beginning to pay attention, as evidenced by rising bond yields in the U.K., France, Germany, Japan, and the United States. As governments borrow more, investors often demand higher yields to compensate for the increased risks and fiscal pressures. Hard assets, including gold, are one way I believe investors can help protect their portfolios against these long-term uncertainties.
Q: Gold and silver have been on a great run. Many people who have followed metals for a long time are somewhat surprised that gold and silver are at their current levels. Do you think this will continue?
A: I think both gold and silver are continuing to consolidate the extraordinary gains they experienced last year and in early 2026. I expect this digestion phase to continue, with some downside risk. In gold’s case, it has become a source of funds for countries that import large amounts of energy and may need liquidity to offset higher energy costs. That said, the longer-term fundamentals remain supportive, particularly as central banks continue to diversify their reserves and investors seek protection from inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and growing fiscal challenges around the world.
Final Thoughts
Peter Boockvar’s outlook highlights how interconnected today’s economic challenges have become. Geopolitical conflicts are no longer isolated events. They can affect global supply chains, energy markets, inflation, government finances, and ultimately the purchasing power of consumers and investors alike.
As Boockvar points out, the consequences of supply disruptions and rising debt levels may take time to fully emerge, but the risks are building beneath the surface. Higher energy costs, persistent inflation pressures, and growing fiscal imbalances have the potential to reshape the investment landscape for years to come.
In that environment, many investors are looking beyond traditional financial assets. Gold and silver have long served as stores of value during periods of uncertainty, and today they continue to attract attention from both individual investors and central banks seeking diversification. While precious metals may experience periods of consolidation and short-term volatility, the broader forces discussed in this conversation help explain why they remain an important consideration for those focused on preserving wealth over the long term.
The Coin That Preserved America’s Greatest Migration Route
Posted on — 1 CommentImagine standing on the edge of the American frontier.
Ahead lies more than 2,000 miles of wilderness. There are no highways, no gas stations, and no guarantees. Everything you own is packed into a wooden wagon pulled by oxen. Around you are thousands of other families chasing the same dream: a new life in the West.
Some will make it. Many will not.
For generations, the Oregon Trail represented one of the greatest migrations in American history. Between the 1840s and 1860s, hundreds of thousands of pioneers traveled across mountains, deserts, rivers, and endless prairie in search of opportunity. Along the way, thousands died from disease, accidents, exposure, and exhaustion. Their stories became woven into the fabric of the American West.
Yet by the early twentieth century, those sacrifices were beginning to fade from public memory.
One man refused to let that happen.
The Pioneer Who Wouldn’t Let America Forget
In 1852, a young Ohio farmer named Ezra Meeker loaded his wife and infant son into an ox-drawn wagon and headed west along the Oregon Trail.
The journey changed his life.
Decades later, as one of the last surviving pioneers, Meeker realized that many Americans had forgotten the people who opened the West. Historical landmarks were disappearing. Trail routes were being swallowed by farms and growing cities. The story of the pioneers was literally vanishing from the landscape.
Most people would have accepted it. Not Ezra Meeker.
In his seventies, eighties, and even nineties, he launched a one-man campaign to preserve the Oregon Trail. He retraced portions of the route in an ox-drawn wagon. He met politicians. He gave speeches. He made historical markers. He even parked his wagon in front of the White House to draw attention to his cause.
Then, at age 95, Meeker traveled to Washington, D.C., and persuaded Congress to authorize a commemorative half dollar that would help fund preservation efforts.
A Masterpiece in Silver
Released in 1926, the Oregon Trail Memorial Half Dollar was unlike anything collectors had seen before.
The coin was created by renowned sculptors James Earle Fraser, designer of the Buffalo Nickel, and his wife Laura Gardin Fraser, one of the most accomplished artists of her era. Together, they produced a coin that many collectors still consider among the most beautiful ever struck by the United States Mint.
On one side, a covered wagon crests a hill as it heads west toward the setting sun. It is a scene filled with motion and hope. You can almost hear the creaking wagon wheels and the slow march of the oxen.
On the other side stands a Native American figure before a map of the United States. One hand is raised as if signaling a warning as the line of westward migration stretches across the continent behind him.
Three Oregon Trail Half Dollars Every Collector Should Know
The 1926 Oregon Trail Memorial Half Dollar
As the first issue of the series, the 1926 coin is directly tied to Ezra Meeker’s historic campaign. It represents the realization of his dream that future generations would remember the determination of the pioneers who crossed the continent.
The 1933-D Oregon Trail Memorial Half Dollar
The 1933-D issue holds a unique place in U.S. Mint history.
It was the first commemorative coin ever struck at the Denver Mint, making it significant not only to Oregon Trail collectors but also to collectors of Denver coinage.
The 1939-S Oregon Trail Memorial Half Dollar
The final chapter.
Issued during the last year of the series, the 1939-S marked the end of a commemorative program that had spanned fourteen years. With only a few thousand struck, it remains one of the key dates in the collection.
The Coin That Helped End an Era
Ironically, the Oregon Trail Half Dollar became so popular that it eventually helped bring an end to the classic commemorative coin era.
Congress had authorized up to six million coins, but the Oregon Trail Memorial Association ordered relatively small quantities over many different years and mints. New varieties appeared repeatedly, encouraging collectors to buy additional issues to keep their collections complete. Many collectors grew frustrated.
What began as a fundraising effort increasingly looked like a never-ending series of special releases. The controversy sparked protests within the numismatic community and contributed to Congress shutting down many commemorative coin programs by the end of the 1930s.
In a twist of history, one of America’s most beloved commemorative coins also helped reshape the future of commemorative coinage itself.
More Than a Coin
Today, the Oregon Trail Memorial Half Dollar remains one of the crown jewels of classic U.S. commemoratives.
Collectors admire its artistry, historians appreciate its connection to one of the most important migrations in American history, and anyone who holds one can feel the story it carries. This coin represents a pioneer family chasing opportunity beyond the horizon. It is the memory of thousands who risked everything for a chance at a better future.
Nearly a century after its first appearance, the Oregon Trail Memorial Half Dollar continues to do exactly what Ezra Meeker hoped it would do: Keep the story alive.
U.S. Manufacturing Activity Expands, Gold Consolidates
Posted on — Leave a commentU.S. manufacturing activity jumped in May, climbing at the fastest pace in four years, boosted by a jump in new orders and production. The Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing gauge climbed to 54, marking the fifth straight month of expansion.
Readings above 50 reveal growth in the sector.
Precious metals update
The gold market continues to trade quietly within a range between roughly $4,300 and $4,800 an ounce, that has confined price action for the past two and half months. The long-term uptrend points higher for gold. The precious metal is in a holding pattern as negotiations to end the U.S. war in Iran continue to play out.
If there is resolution around energy tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, it would ease concerns about higher consumer prices. That would make it more likely the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in the months ahead, which is a positive development for gold. Lower interest rates boost precious metals because they don’t pay interest.
U.S. economic outlook stays fairly strong
There are crosswinds for the U.S. economy including the U.S. War in Iran, yet the fiscal stimulus package passed last year and the Fed’s 2025 interest rate cuts are helping to boost economic growth, along with the AI technology boom.
The U.S. manufacturing sector is benefiting from these dynamics as defense, aerospace and semi-conductor factory activity expands.
However, the strong manufacturing output growth isn’t boosting manufacturing jobs. Instead, U.S. manufacturing jobs have been declining since early 2023, according to both the ISM survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment numbers. On one hand, shortages of skilled blue-collar workers in America encourages factory owners to automate. And, on the other hand, the rise of factory automation discourages workers from pursuing manufacturing careers.
All eyes on Middle East
Looking ahead, if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to oil tanker traffic in June, ending the disruption to global energy supplies, economists expect the U.S. economy to churn out another year of respectable economic growth. That in turn will give the Fed room to cut interest rates as expected, which is gold positive.
Emotional decisions during market volatility can be costly
A disciplined approach to portfolio management can help you protect a portion of your wealth when it is allocated to gold. The stock market is climbing now. If a correction or a crash comes, investors with a 10% allocation to precious metals benefit from a proven strategy to help protect and grow wealth even during stock market downturns.
What is your allocation?
How much do you have invested in precious metals? The best time to implement a disciplined diversification strategy is during times like we are seeing today. Gold is in a steady, consistent range, allowing you to trade fewer of your dollars for more gold. Call us at 1-800-880-4653 to speak with a portfolio advisor and get personalized recommendations to meet your risk tolerance and long-term financial goals. Blanchard stands ready to assist.
