Gold continued its breathtaking advance Monday by topping $1,300 for the first time since January 2015, feeding off a trifecta of bullish drivers from last week: inaction from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, as well as a mediocre U.S. GDP report.

The yellow metal peaked at $1,303.60 before reversing slightly on profit taking. Meanwhile, silver one of the top-performing assets of April eased somewhat near $17.50. Gold gained more than 4% in April, while silver racked up a 15% advance for the month.

Just the start of a push higher for gold?: Dollar weakness, enabled by the Feds refusal to raise interest rates last week as well as similar paralysis from the Bank of Japan, has been the key driver for gold. We believe that theres a lot of things that are ripe for precious metals right now: a low-interest-rate environment, interest-rate expectations backing down again, and we have a weaker dollar, EverBank World Markets President Chris Gaffney told Bloomberg. We believe this is just the start of a push higher for the precious metals.

The dollar was the reason behind the spike up (last week), and we broke all the important levels on the upside, MKS trader Afshin Nabavi told Reuters. $1,285 was a huge number, and we got through $1,290 pretty easily. $1,300 is going to be a very important one. I think were heading for new numbers on the upside.

$1,325 is really the next resistance level, Trading Advantage strategist Todd Bauer added. Theres a lot of dead air between $1,325 and $1,400.

Gold has a nice tailwind at the moment with the dollar weak and equity markets teetering to the downside, Altavest co-founder Michael Armbruster told MarketWatch. I wouldnt be surprised to see gold near $1,400 in the next month.

Gold partying like its 2007 again: With gold having advanced 22% for the year with its run above $1,300, CNBC recalled similarities between now and 2007. Going back to 1980, there has been only year in which gold has outperformed the S&P by 20% or more while the latter was positive on the year: 2007, it reported. Both gold and the fear-measuring CBOE Volatility Index surged in the second half of that year, even as stocks maintained their footing. The [stock] crash, of course, came in 2008.

A weak PCE inflation report Friday and another contracting PMI manufacturing number continue to suggest an anemic U.S. economy. The chances of a rate hike at any point this year are fast disappearing, for both economic and political reasons, according to American College of Financial Services CEP Robert R. Johnson.

The Fed meeting calendar is going to make it exceedingly difficult for the Fed to move on rates the rest of this year, he wrote. The Fed has five more meetings scheduled in June, July, September, November, and December. There is virtually no chance of rate increases in June and November. The June meeting is eight days prior to the Brexit referendum in the UK and the November meeting is a week before the U.S. presidential election. Moves prior to those political events are highly unlikely, as the Fed doesnt want to be accused of influencing key votes. That leaves July, September, and December for possible rate hikes. I would even take September off the table because of the proximity to the presidential election.

Survey projects higher prices: Even before golds runup to $1,300, analysts already were revising their forecasts. A survey of 30 gold experts at banks and trading firms returned an average 2016 gold price forecast of $1,209 an ounce, up from $1,118 in a similar poll in January, Reuters reported. The price is expected to rise steadily this year, peaking at an average $1,250 an ounce in the fourth quarter, the survey showed, before extending gains to average $1,300 an ounce in 2017. That would be its highest annual average since 2013. At the rate gold is moving, these projections already look like underestimations.

This weeks major data point will be the Labor Departments nonfarm-payrolls report for April. With one of the Feds mandates being lowering the unemployment rate, the report could shed more light on second-quarter growth and influence the Feds decision process on interest rates.

Just about a week after its April 19 article titled Silvers bull market has so much more to give, 5 charts show, Bloomberg has zeroed in on another bullish driver for the white metal: supply and demand.

Output from mines will fall for the first time since 2011, while demand for the metal inuses including industrial products and jewelry is heading for a fourth straight gain, the news agency reported in its April 26 article Silver supply trouble shows why rally momentum is building.

Bloomberg was reporting the latest findings of the CPM Group in its Silver Yearbook 2016, which is projecting that newly mined silver production will fall 2.4% this year, while scrap supply will decline 1%. In contrast, industrial and fabrication demand is expected to rise by 1.6%. CPMs decline forecast follows an earlier call this year by Societe Generale.

Therefore, silver is entering what is likely to be a pivotal year, CPM said. Its chief executive, Jeffrey Christian, recently told Forbes contributor Simon Constable that he sees silver trading over $20 and as high as $25 in a few years.

Thanks to surging ETF inflows, net-long futures positioning, and strong coin sales, silver recently broke the $17 level and gained about 15% alone in April.

The most accurate silver forecasters ranked by Bloomberg are both bullish on the metal Cantor Fitzgeralds Rob Chang (ranked No. 1) and Intesa Sanpaolo SpAs Daniela Corsini (No. 2) with Chang saying, We believe there is more upside.

What was resistance becomes support, agreed TradingAnalysis.com founder Todd Gordon in a CNBC appearance last week. We are free from the ceiling and ready to move higher.

Some major investment banks also are raising their price targets for so-called poor mans gold. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has lifted its 2016 average price by 8% to $16.47, citing shrinking supplies and rising demand, particularly in the coin, bar, and ETF sectors. It also increased its long-term forecast to $19.71 from $18.56.

Our analysis shows that fundamentals are now the strongest in years, BofA Merrill analysts said. In our view, a sustained bear market is only possible if we see investor demand take another leg lower, not our base case.

And Deutsche Bank went even further, predicting that silver could reach $20.50 in the near term thanks to ongoing easy-money policies from major central banks like the Fed and the ECB. Its also expecting improving industrial demand to drive the price higher, and for already record-level net-long positions on the Comex to increase even further.

Silver can remain dormant and underperform gold for significant periods before suddenly catching up; it tends to be a late-cycle play in the precious metals space. When this happens, it tends to happen quickly as has been the case this week, it said.

Silver coins remain one of the best ways to invest in the metals rising price. The U.S. Mint has sold 18.889 million ounces of its flagship silver American Eagle bullion coin, well on pace to break the 2015 all-time annual sales record of 37 million. Investors also should consider silver Canadian Maple Leaf coins, silver rounds, circulated Morgan Dollars and Peace Dollars, and silver bullion bars (10 oz. and 100 oz.). A green Monster Box of 500 silver Eagles also is a great way to go!

As the citizens of Great Britain mull a potential exit from the European Union, many of them took umbrage at warnings from U.S. President Barack Obama during his recent visit to London.

Obama said that if the June 23 referendum on a Brexit passes, it might be five years from now, 10 years from now, before the U.S. complete new trade deals with Britain.

Despite the outrage generated by Obamas remarks, which were construed as patronizing, the odds of the Brexit actually occurring have dropped since then.

Still, it will all come down to the wire, and the long-term effects of a Brexit could be considerable. Per-household worth would drop by several thousand British pounds, and GDP would fall by 6.2% over 15 years, according to Britains Treasury.

Gold can move with franc, yen: But HSBC thinks at least one immediate winner could emerge from the carnage: gold.

In a couple of recent notes, HSBCs teams wrote: As perceived safe-haven assets, the CHF (Swiss franc) and gold often move directionally together. A stronger CHF may indirectly support gold.

Like the CHF, gold would also likely benefit from a sizable safe-haven bid in the event of a Brexit vote. The currency team believes the CHF is unlikely to weaken should the UK choose to remain in the EU and we believe the same rationale applies to gold.

Like the CHF, gold does not appear to reflect a substantial premium regarding an exit vote. The lack of sensitivity may make both a good hedge.

Positioning ahead of June 23 vote: And with uncertainty lodged in place until the vote is held, investors eventually will start hedging against the possibility of a Brexit with gold.

Another bullish driver of gold may be the potential for hedging ahead of the UKs referendum on EU membership. HSBC forex strategists offer a variety of reasons why the CHF is a good currency hedge ahead of the referendum.

These include the likelihood of a rally in case of a vote to leave the EU, but likely less downside if the referendum affirms the UKs membership in the EU.

We believe this asymmetric relationship also applies to gold. The bank noted that gold, as well as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, all rose in the runup to the UKs general elections in 2015. The same safe-haven appeal could apply in the weeks ahead as the Brexit referendum nears.

Sticking by its $1,300 prediction: The bank also once again reaffirmed its forecast that gold will hit $1,300 in 2016. We continue to see the potential for gold to reach USD1,300/oz this year. As well as a weaker USD, we see global risks and a modest recovery in oil prices as gold-bullish. The more tame Fed tightening cycle, compared to expectations last year, should also support gold.

Until closure on this potentially major shakeup to European governance and commerce is reached, gold looks like a solid play heading toward June 23.

Was there a single unadulteratedly positive U.S. economic report issued Tuesday? No, and thats why gold gained again ahead of tomorrows Federal Reserve policy statement.

The yellow metal gained about 0.3% to trade near $1,243 by early afternoon. Silver also advanced and was holding above $17 at $17.08 in the afternoon session.

Durable goods disappoint: For starters, although durable-goods orders rose in March, they gained less than expected, just 0.8% versus an anticipated 1.8%. Moreover, the core durable-goods number fell for the 14^th straight month, something that has never happened outside of a recession, Zero Hedge noted.

Meanwhile, the Richmond branch of the Fed issued its manufacturing survey, which posted its biggest drop since August.

The American citizen continues to feel the pain of the economys anemic growth, with The Conference Boards consumer-confidence index falling way more than expected.

And after Mondays plummeting new-home sales data, the Case-Shiller housing-price report showed the slowest growth since September and missed expectations for the fifth month in a row.

GDP stuck under 1%: Although Markits PMI report for the service sector came in at expected levels, its well below its peak hit in 2014. The upturn in the rate of growth of business activity and increased inflows of new orders suggest the economy should see GDP rise at an increased ratein the second quarter, but growth is clearly far more fragile than this time last year, said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson.And what would that growth rate be? The survey suggests the economy grew at an annualized rate of just 0.8% at the start of the second quarter.

Well get a better look at the first quarters growth rate when the government releases its GDP estimate Thursday, but for now, the Atlanta Fed has second-quarter GDP at just 0.4%, up slightly from the previous 0.3%.

The continuing onslaught of weak economic data boosted gold prices by lowering expectations of a Fed rate hike. A new CNBC survey now shows Wall Street anticipating a more dovish Fed in April than it did back in March, with the next rate hike not expected until much later this year.

Another bear turns bullish, buys gold: Lowered rate-hike expectations are one reason why HSBC is sticking to its forecast of $1,300 gold prices this year. And now another long-time gold bear has turned bullish. Independent Strategy Ltd. President David Roche has told Bloomberg he is now buying gold.

Weve increased our holdings of gold; now, thats after a long, long time being short, he said Tuesday. The reason for that is because we dont know what central banks are going to do next. Investors need bullion as an insurance policy against that uncertainty, he said.

The technicals also are signaling further momentum in gold. According to Nedbank Capital in Johannesburg, gold now appears to be forming a so-called pennant, a chart pattern resembling a triangular flag at the end of a pole. That suggests it is about to resume gains to as high as $1,400 an ounce, Bloomberg relayed.

Stay tuned for the results of the meetings of the Fed and the Bank of Japan later this week for further clues on where gold might be headed.

Gold started off this Federal Reserve-dominated week with a bang, posting a roughly $10 gain after another pessimistic housing report cast doubt on the state of the U.S. economy.

New-home sales dropped 1.5% in March for its third straight monthly decline, with activity in the West plunging 23.6% on a month-over-month basis. This follows last weeks disappointing data on March housing starts and permits.

Industrial metals were hit this morning on news that home sales were weaker than expected, RJO Futures strategist Phil Streible told Bloomberg. This could have a further effect on the economy, dragging down the chances for a rate hike in June, and investors are seeking some of the safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

All eyes on Fed, GDP this week: Meanwhile, the Dallas Feds manufacturing-activity report contracted for the 16^th straight month, thanks to the ongoing oil slump. It is a bad time for manufacturing, agriculture and mining the only sectors that actually create wealth, one respondent lamented.

The news bodes ill for U.S. GDP estimates, which the Atlanta Fed has pegged at a meager 0.3% as of April 19 (an update is set for Tuesday, April 26). An official GDP update from the Commerce Department is due on Thursday. The Fed also starts its two-day meeting Tuesday and will issue its latest rate-hike decision Wednesday, but Wall Street currently puts the odds of an interest-rate increase at virtually nil.

All the major stock indexes were in the red Monday, while gold was on the move higher, advancing almost 1% and topping the $1,240 level at the peak of its session, thanks to newfound weakness in the U.S. dollar. Silver also rose about 0.5% to touch $17.04.

New wave of buying at $1,275: Bulls continue to like golds prospects despite its relatively rangebound trading level since February. For Orips Research CEO Zev Spiro, thats pure consolidation.

As long as prices hold above support in the $1,190-$1,205 area, then the composure remains positive, Spiro told CNBC. Upward momentum is expected with a breakout above the $1,275-$1,280 area. So, thats where I expect the new wave of buying would come in and could carry prices higher. Predicting a total $200 move this year, he added, $1,450 is my objective. Once we get a break above the $1,280 area, I suspect there will be a fast directional move higher.

And MarketWatch columnist Michael Brush interviewed some analysts who also think golds 2016 streak will stay intact. I would not be surprised to see all-time highs in this next leg of the precious-metals cycle, Tocqueville Gold Fund exec John Hathaway said. Theres a war on cash and a war on savings, and people are starting to see that. All of this drives people to think: What else is there? Where else can I keep my money safe?

Silver to $20-$25, expert says: Silvers fortunes also look bright, according to CPM Group chief Jeffrey Christian. A few years from now youre probably going to see it over $20, Christian said, admitting that he underestimated its performance this year. I think that we could see silver trading in the $20 to $25 range within a few years.

Silver already has a strong fan base, judging from the U.S. Mints sales of its 2016 silver American Eagle coins. As of last Friday, those sales are running at a record clip, with more that 17.912 million ounces sold. Thats 27.9% higher than at the same time last year. And on the gold front, 37,000 ounces of gold American Eagles and gold American Buffalos combined were sold last week the most since sales of 98,500 ounces in the week of Jan. 11 when the newly 2016-dated editions launched, CoinNews reported.

Coin sales could leap further after the Fed issues its post-meeting statement Wednesday, provided that its message sounds cautious about the state of the U.S. and global economies. Another major central bank, the Bank of Japan, is due to meet Thursday, and bankers everywhere will be watching closely, given the negative interest rates and massive quantitative-easing programs the BOJ has launched with little effect on the nations moribund economy.

On his blog for the Brookings Institution, former Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke has written a series titled What tools does the Fed have left?

The entries that Bernanke has penned so far discuss three weapons negative interest rates, targeting longer-term interest rates, and helicopter money that the central bank can still wield to hit the 2% inflation target it needs to declare final victory over the deflationary forces still lingering from the Great Recession.

But one word is missing from the three-part series: gold. Thats no surprise given Bernankes infamous dismissal of the yellow metal in verbal sparring sessions with then-Congressman Ron Paul during appearances on Capitol Hill. Even after Paul retired from Congress, Bernanke admitted to lawmakers that no one really understands gold prices, including Ben himself.

Exec cites FDRs 1933 order: And European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi also got tongues wagging in December 2014 when he said he and his fellow policymakers had discussed buying all assets but gold in planning how to implement a quantitative-easing program for the eurozone.

But leave it to a vice president and fund manager at one of the worlds largest asset managers, Pimco, to invoke gold as an antidote to the economys current lethargy. In a hypothetical piece, Pimcos Harley Bassman proposes that the Fed offer to buy citizens gold at above-market-value prices to stimulate the economy and generate inflation while offsetting the deflation being exported by other nations to the U.S.

Bassman uses as his model the gold-confiscation order issued by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933 to lift the U.S. out from the Great Depression. Under penalty of possible prison time, citizens back then were told to turn in their gold for the price of $20.67, which the Fed later revalued to $35.

Ignoring for the moment the outrageous nature by which the gold was acquired, the plan worked, Bassman wrote. Positive results were almost immediate, Bassman notes. Over the three years from January 1934 to December 1936, GDP increased by 48%, the Dow Jones stock index rose by nearly 80%, and most salient to our topic, inflation averaged a positive 2% annually, despite a national unemployment rate hovering around 18%. (Subsequent Fed policy blunders plunged the nation back into Depression, but thats another story.)

Fed would pay beyond spot value: Bassmans modest proposal for the 21^st century is this: In the context of todays paralyzed political-fiscal landscape and a hyperventilated election process, how silly is it to suggest the Fed emulate a past success by making a public offer to purchase a significantly large quantity of gold bullion at a substantially greater price than todays free-market level, perhaps $5,000 an ounce? It would be operationally simple as holders could transact directly at regional Federal offices or via authorized precious metal assayers.

Bassman argues that a Fed-sponsored gold-buying program would be more effective than QE, which was wholly contained within the financial system and didnt boost the real Main Street economy. He also dismissed negative interest rates as just bizarre to most non-academics. In contrast, gold purchases used as an avenue of monetary expansion might finally lift the anchor on inflationary expectations and their associated spending habits.

Gold is uniquely qualified for such a Fed program because of its unique, time-tested functionality as money attributes that other rival assets such as oil or houses lack, Bassman concludes.

Gold could be king after global reset: Of course, Bassmans plan is not new. Besides its roots in 1933, West Shore Funds strategist and gold author Jim Rickards has long suggested that the Fed buy bullion. I discussed #Fed buying #gold in #CurrencyWars p 244 (2011), Rickards tweeted, referring to one of his bestselling books.

Right now, though, the Fed is doing all it can to downplay gold as a potential solution to a world now dominated by fiat currencies, overwhelming debt, and slowing growth. The Fed wants you to think that its bag of monetary-manipulation tricks is all the world needs to navigate through economic turmoil.

But other central banks are not on the same page as the Fed: The Peoples Bank of China has been gobbling up bullion for years in preparation for the day when the U.S. dollar is now longer the pre-eminent reserve currency and its own yuan rises in stature. The potential great reset to the global financial system could catapult gold back into a central role with a much greater value priced in fiat currencies no matter how much the Fed currently chooses to ignore that possibility.