The secret behind Chinas gold fix: Doing away with a U.S. dollar-centric system

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Chinas groundbreaking launch of a yuan-denominated gold-pricing fix on its Shanghai Gold Exchange has been downplayed by some Western analysts, who cant seem to envision a day when London and New Yorks dominance of the industry might yield to Asia.

CPM Groups Jeff Christian, for example, told one news service that the yuan-linked gold fix is old news and that it is easy for commentators to read too much into it.

And while Societe Generales Robin Bhar conceded that it was an important development, he argued that as long as it exists inside a closed monetary system, it will have limited global repercussions. For a truly efficient benchmark, the market has to be as unimpeded and unfettered as possible.

But the closer we get to the source the Chinese themselves and the fixing participants, some of whom are Western the more significance this new innovation in the gold market assumes.

Turning the tables on London: Its a market of 1.2 billion people and simply cannot be neglected, said Marwan Shakarchi of the Swiss refiner MKS, one of the 18 institutions participating in the fix. I am convinced that in the future we wont say China is at a premium or discount to London, but vice versa.

Having more sway in the gold market befits the long-term strategy of expanding the yuans role as a global currency, saidJiang Shu of Shandong Gold Financial Holdings, an arm of the Shandong mining giant and another participant.

It reflects the next stage of the internationalisation of Chinas gold market, Aram Shishmanian of the World Gold Council told The South China Morning Post.

And perhaps the most bombshell analysis of the new yuan-based fixing comes from a strategist at Hong Kong banking behemoth Bocom International. In a Bloomberg interview (edited here slightly for clarity), Hao Hong makes it clear that dumping the U.S. dollar is front and center in Chinas long-term geopolitical and economic strategy not an overnight revolution but a slow, methodical plan with many interlocking parts, of which the Shanghai yuan gold fix is just one.

Slowly chipping away at the dollar: Its a planned move to move away from a U.S. dollar-centric monetary system, he said. What were seeing here right now is actually a move spanning across more than two years. If you still remember, in 2014 Shanghai opened the Shanghai International Gold Exchange, and it very soon became the largest gold exchange in the world. And they actually trade physical gold instead of paper gold. And also I think in 2016 this year, early this year, they already announced theyre going to fix the gold price in renminbi. In so doing, were slowly chipping away at the dominance of the U.S. dollar, and for China its moving away from a U.S. dollar-centric system.

Controlling the gold-pricing mechanisms is a key part of the plan, which also has involved stockpiling valuable, strategically important commodities. Silver and gold and also petrol are three very important commodities that are priced in U.S. dollars, and I think gold in particular is one of the commodities that the Chinese central bank is hoarding very hard, Hao said. The gold reserve holdings in the Chinese central-bank balance sheet have almost doubled since 2009, so by holding gold and by doing away with a U.S. dollar-centric system, we actually require less U.S. dollar holdings.

Although SocGens Bhar argued that the yuan gold fix will have limited repercussions because of Chinas relatively closed markets, Hao here reminds us that Chinas ultimate goal is going international. He cites the Chinese yuans recent green light from the International Monetary Fund to be added into the global reserve-currency basket known as Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs. Were trying to get a seat on the international table, and obviously weve been permitted into the SDR league. Very soon this year we are going to formally be included in the SDR currency, and also in so doing were doing all these concerted moves to move away from the U.S. dollar dominance.

A new system is needed: Hao concedes that China cant dump the dollar immediately, acknowledging that Beijing holds massive amounts of U.S. greenback currency reserves. China cant immediately challenge effectively the U.S. dollar dominance, he admitted.

Still, the current dollar hegemony is no longer serving Chinas long-term interests, and therefore its time for a change, Hao said. The system used to work very well for both countries. The U.S. people buy the Chinese exports, and then the Chinese buy the U.S. Treasuries. It worked very well. It depressed the U.S. bond yield and also created liquidity in the Chinese system. But then since 2015, the whole system sort of stuck in reverse. Since 2015, weve seen a decline in Chinese forex reserves and also weve seen a very slow buildup in Chinese forex reserves and a slowdown in Chinese exports as well. So we have to work out a different system to provide liquidity, a new system to provide liquidity in the Chinese macro-economy.

Investors who dismiss the significance of the yuan-linked gold fix do so to their own potential detriment. Were talking about the worlds biggest consumer and producer of gold, and the signs are clear that China is no longer content to take a back seat to Western powers. We have trained our eyes on the global market, said Li Guohong, general manager of the Shandong Gold Group. U.S. dollar holders should be paying close attention and acting accordingly, and that means hedging for the possible day that King Dollar might have to bow before the Royal Renminbi.

Silver surges to 10-month high as China launches landmark gold-pricing fix

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Gold and silver continued their two-pronged attack Tuesday after an unexpected plunge in new-home starts and permits cast a fresh cloud over the U.S. economy.

Also boosting gold was news that Chinas Shanghai Gold Exchange has officially launched its yuan-denominated gold-price fixing. The move is seen as a major Chinese step to exercise more control over golds pricing and increase the stature of the yuan currency versus the U.S. dollar.

This is a very important development and will obviously be very closely watched, Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar told Bloomberg.

Rate-hike expectations fading: Rising 2% to hit a one-week high, gold gained about $20 to top $1,256. But once again, silver was the real head-turner, reaching a 10-month peak in a 5.2% ascent and breaking through the psychologically significant $17 level.

Gold should probably hang on to its gains in the second quarter because the dollar is likely to stay relatively subdued with the expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes being pushed out to the second half of this year, Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler told Reuters.

Silvers rise driving down gold ratio: Whats driving silver? Traders are seizing on the disparity in the gold-to-silver price ratio, which currently suggests that the white metal is underpriced relative to the yellow metal. The ratio fell to its lowest level in four months, to 74, on Tuesday, down from a high of 83 in March, its highest level since 2008.

Inflows into silver ETFs are nearing record levels, trading volumes in New York are soaring, and the U.S. Mints sales of its 2016 silver American Eagle coins are continuing at a blistering pace, with more than 17.6 million sold so far this year.

Moreover, with signs that its economy might be picking up, China is a major silver buyer of late, according to Ronald Leung of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. One reason is that the dollar is weakening. Another reason is that there is heavy buying in silver in Shanghai, and that has triggered buying in gold as well, he told Reuters.

New-home starts plunge 9%: But back to the U.S. housing data. New-home construction slumped in March, with residential starts falling by 8.8% in what is supposed to be one of the busiest times of the year for the construction industry, while permits also dropped.

Meanwhile, underneath the rosy depictions of U.S. job growth is bad news that temporary-help employment has fallen for two of the past three months, down 1.8% for the year, while the Federal Reserves own labor-market conditions index also turned negative last month. A slowdown in temp hiring has signaled recessions in the past.

With U.S. manufacturing and retail sectors already suggestive of recessionary conditions, the housing market is or was the one major bright light left. Now that U.S. growth seems to be grinding to a near halt, the Fed will have little choice but to keep its monetary spigots flowing in the form of near-zero interest rates. The odds of an imminent rate hike are fading, and thats good news for both gold and silver prices.

Gold can take out $1,350 this year, says Capital Economics

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Even before Tuesdays robust performance in the precious-metals sector, several respected analysts continued to argue that gold has further room to run higher.

Bloomberg published an April 18 article titled Golds best forecasters see rally resuming on rates caution, in which top analysts from Capital Economics and Cantor Fitzgerald submitted their opinions on the yellow metals prospects.

Gold resilient as investors dig in: Capitals Simona Gambarini sees the metal advancing to $1,350 by the end of 2016, while Cantors Rob Chang also predicted gold would rise, but perhaps not to that level this year.

Both analysts think the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice this year, and Gambarini thinks gold will grab a second wind after a potential June rate hike. The gold price has been quite resilient, which means that investors have definitely changed their attitude towards gold.

And citing a cautious Fed, Chang predicted gold will continue its march higher, albeit at a more conservative pace.

Gold is gonna take off: And Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital also weighed in on gold in a couple of recent interviews, telling Fox Business that gold has the wind at its back thanks to the growing preponderance of negative interest rates.

On paper, negative rates make a lot of sense if youre running academic models, but in reality they make no sense, Bass said. This experiment thats going on we all know will end poorly at some point in time. I just dont know when that time is.

Of course, the central bankers know that negative rates can only work if depositors arent hoarding cash. Thats why weve seen high-profile economists and bankers like Larry Summers and Mario Draghi advocate for abolishing higher-denominated currency notes. I think that one of the fears that they have is a run on cash, Bass said. If they told you and I that theyre going to tax your deposits by a hundred basis points, well, its better to put it in a safe or under your mattress. And thats why you see a resurgence in gold. The more they move to negative rates, the more gold is gonna take off because theres no carrying cost.

Central bankers cant print gold: And in a separate Bloomberg appearance, Bass also came out swinging for gold in a world dominated by money printing. Weve always had a position in gold, he said. When you think about the largest central banks in the world, theyve all moved to an unlimited printing ideology. Monetary policy happens to be the only game in town. Im perplexed as to why gold is as low as it is, but I dont have a great answer for you other than you should maintain a position. At some point in time Id much rather own gold than paper. I just dont know when that time is. They cant print any more of it. They can mine some more, but they cant print it at the rate that central banks are printing. I just view gold as another currency, its that simple. I dont view it as a commodity.

And although not an economist, former Congressman Ron Paul of Texas also thinks precious metals are indispensable in the current environment fostered by the Feds interest-rate manipulation.

Long-term its not a very good investment, Paul said of stocks in a CNBC interview. I think were going to go through cycles as we have been whether its the Nasdaq bubble, the housing bubble, or the current bubble. Everything is so out of whack when you look at interest rates at zero and now maybe negative so I think its a very dangerous place to be. Long-term Im not very confident that Im going to put my retirement money into the ordinary stock market. I think that were facing a downturn thats probably a lot worse than what we had in 08 and 09.

Silver looks pretty good: On precious metals, Paul said, In 1971 when Bretton Woods closed down, I bought for the next decade gold and silver and held it as my nest egg and that has done well. And I havent touched that too often, but a month ago though, I bought some silver, and so far it looks pretty good, especially today. … Gold is money, and I think silver is still money, and its sort of catching up, and I was pleased with buying silver about a month ago.

Paul predicted that the U.S. will have to start handing out money (so-called helicopter cash) in order to generate spending. We are destined to continue to spend, continue to run up debt, and continue to print money, and even with the next recession coming when were at zero interest rates, boy, they are going to start passing out money is what theyre going to do.

And those sorts of currency-destroying, inflationary policies are exactly why investors need to have staunch allocations to gold and silver. Numerous analysts think the near term looks positive, especially once gold takes out resistance at the $1,270 level. And certainly the long haul looks even brighter for precious metals given the borrow-and-spend future that Paul has outlined.

Dollar threat – Saudi Arabia to dump 750 billion in US assets over 9-11 bill

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If the U.S. needed a reminder about one of its greatest Achilles heels on the geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia has given it one: The oil-rich kingdom is threatening to dump up to $750 billion worth of U.S. assets, mainly Treasury bonds, if Congress passes a bill removing the sovereign immunity in U.S. courts enjoyed by the Saudi government. The bill theoretically would allow Saudi Arabia to be held culpable in American courts for any role it might have played in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Selloff would avoid any seizure: According to a New York Times report Sunday, the Saudi foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, delivered the threat personally in March while in Washington, D.C. Because the bills passage would allow compensation to be sought by 9/11 victims and their families, the sale of such assets would be a pre-emptive move to prevent their seizure.

The controversy is related to 28 pages of the 9/11 investigative commissions report on the attacks that remain classified to this day, reportedly because they detail some level of Saudi involvement. The Obama administration opposes the passage of the bill, saying it might endanger U.S. citizens living or traveling overseas.

Saudi portfolio also vulnerable: Regardless of whether (or not) the Saudis played any role in the attacks, or whether such a sale of assets would be practical, the news highlights the vulnerability of the U.S. because of its debt addiction.

The Los Angeles Times, for instance, points out that a dumping of U.S. assets could carry serious collateral damage for the Saudis themselves. Liquidating their entire holdings of U.S. Treasuries would have to be done over time, and if the sales began to move market prices not necessarily the case that would have an effect on the Saudis own portfolio, it wrote.

And of course, some analysts argue that the Federal Reserve still serves as the ultimate backstop against this threat of a Treasury dump. After all, the central bank could just swoop in and buy up more Treasuries a la its quantitative-easing programs to offset the Saudi selloff. But with the Feds balance sheet already pumped up to a massive $4.5 trillion that still has to be unwound, thats easier said than done.

China dumping bonds slowly, for now: But the elephant in the room remains the fact that Saudi Arabia is not the worlds biggest U.S. bondholder. That would be China, which owns $3.2 trillion worth, followed by Japan, at $1.3 trillion. The three nations together own 35% of the entire U.S. government bond market.

And as the 24/7 Wall St. Web site points out, China is slowly but steadily selling off its Treasury bond holdings, which have fallen 20% since 2014. It also notes the with liquidity drying up in the bond market thanks in part to Chinas liquidation, JPMorgan has estimated the amount of Treasuries that can now be sold in 2015 without affecting price has fallen to $80 million.

Although Saudi Arabia at present might not have the vindictive motivation to dump its Treasury holdings quickly to upset the market, that could change. And whos to say China might not find a reason in the years to come? Numerous high-ranking Chinese policymakers and academics have called for dumping the dollar, and even the Xinhua news agency, during the 2013 U.S. debt-ceiling standoff, urged a move toward a de-Americanized world. And now tensions are running high in the South China Sea as Chinese armed forces play chicken with the U.S. Navy over control of the controversial Spratly Islands.

China already is making multipronged moves to replace the U.S. dollar with its own currency, often in tandem with Russia. The fact that one of Americas biggest allies and chief enabler of the petrodollars supremacy, Saudi Arabia, is now making threats about dumping U.S. government bonds should be very troubling. China and Russia already are planning for the dawn of a de-Americanized world. The notion that Saudi Arabia is now getting in on the game, at least rhetorically, is yet another reason why investors should be diversifying their wealth out of dollars and into alternative currencies like gold and silver.

Silver bullishness hits record highs while gold optimism up to 2012 levels

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Gold stayed relatively rangebound Monday, getting an early bounce from failed oil-freeze talks in Doha but later yielding those gains as stocks rose, led by the Dow Jones average breaking 18,000 for the first time since July 2015.

The metal also found some safe-haven buying from uncertainty over big earthquakes in Japan and Ecuador. Gold was trading near $1,233 in late afternoon, while silver was near $16.21.

Gold prices are likely to stay supported around $1,260 in the second quarter ahead of the Feds rate increase, which may happen in July, Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah told Reuters, thought the timing of that hike remains very uncertain.

Citigroup sees risks in U.S.: Stocks managed to rise despite a new warning from Citigroup on the U.S. economy. The megabank Monday downgraded its growth outlook for 2016-17.

Our outlook has little potential to be surprised on the upside, but the risks are very evident on the downside, wrote William Lee, head of Citigroups North America economics. Recently revised and incoming data imply GDP will grow by 0.9% in (the first quarter) and 1.7% for the year. Its expecting only one late-year interest-rate hike from the Fed.

And if investors needed another reminder about what exactly is propping up U.S. stocks, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gave them one in a CNBC interview April 14, saying: You bring long-term rates down, and the price/earnings ratios in the equity markets go up,which is exactly what they planned to do and its happened that way.

Fed exec urges slow rate hikes: Meanwhile, New York Fed President William reiterated his cautious prognosis for the economy and the banks rate-hike pace, saying, Monetary policy adjustments are likely to be gradual and cautious, as we continue to face significant uncertainties and the headwinds to growth from the financial crisis have not fully abated.

And despite a surge in stocks Monday, more new signs emerged of slowing U.S. economy. Sales and profits are falling at more of Americas biggest companies, CNBC reported, citing a new report from the National Association for Business Economics. The share of those reporting stronger sales dropped to the lowest level in seven years, it added, and, for only the second time since the end of the Great Recession, more respondents said profits were falling than those who said profits were rising at their companies.

Trader bullishness soars: No wonder bullishness over precious metals is near record levels. Money managers increased their wagers on a price rally to the highest since 2012, taking their optimism to a level last seen before a three-year bear market started, Bloomberg reported, citing positioning in the latest CFTC futures trading data that saw net-long positions jump 13% as of April 12.

Silver bullishness is even higher among fund managers. Silver futures have rallied 17% this year, it noted. Money managers last week increased their net-long position in the metal by 30% to 54,885 contracts. Thats the highest since the comparable CFTC data begins in 2006.

UBS sees gold averaging $1,250: Although it thinks gold could slip below $1,200 again if risk appetites increase, UBS issued a note commenting on2016s newfound bullishness in gold. From a bearish stance in Q4 last year, attitudes have turned remarkably positive by the end of Q1 2016, Joni Teves wrote. Global markets entered a phase of heightened risk aversion following the global financial crisis (GFC). In Global Macro Strategy,we expect current high levels of risk aversion to decline, but accommodative policy is needed to reassure markets. This creates a good opportunity for gold to assert its value as a diversifier within a portfolio.

Acknowledging that the spring and summer months historically are marked by price lulls in the metals, UBS nonetheless is cautiously optimistic. Our 3-month target of $1,250 captures this view and the expectation that gold would remain in consolidation phase,especially during these seasonally slower months, to digest the length that has been built up this year. The market may experience some downside pressure around the June FOMC meeting, but continuing interest to buy dips should keep prices supported overall.

Gold refuses to budge: Dundee Economics summed up golds recent performance even better, noting that so far, the yellow metal refuses to decline.

Gold refuses to decline, which may be telling us something, it wrote. Our bias was neutral/negative these last two weeks, because we were concerned there might be a sudden, sharp reduction in the net-long spec position on COMEX (see the chart on p 4), triggered by some event a random, good U.S. economic data release, for example. But gold continues to find strength in Fed developments and the weakish U.S. dollar. Equity market rallies, too, have hardly dampened the gold price. All signs of a new bull market?

Although the potential for another dip below $1,200 exists, the factors that could keep it supported are just as present in todays market, and any number of catalysts could send it soaring again toward $1,300. And right now, the mood remains majority bullish on gold and silver.

Gold will go up by multiples if Fed policy error stokes major new crisis

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Recessionary winds continue to blow briskly through the U.S., and although the mainstream media consistently downplay the downbeat data, the top Republican presidential contenders have seized on the average Americans discontent.

Ted Cruz warned Friday that the rising stock market is an illusion created by the Federal Reserves easy-money policies. The Fed has, for those with assets, driven up stock prices, he said. But thats not built on anything real. Its not built on an increase in the intrinsic value of those assets. Thats just playing games with money, which means a crash will be coming.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump blasted the self-serving elites in the political class, writing in The Wall Street Journal: Let me ask America a question: How has the system been working out for you and your family?

Industrial output falls for 7th month: But the economic numbers tell the tale much more accurately than political campaign rhetoric. Aside from a positive initial-jobless-claims number, a Fed Beige Book that found just modest to moderate growth, and a strong Empire Fed manufacturing report, the data this week has been grim.

U.S. retail sales tanked once again in March, while Fridays report on U.S. manufacturing output for last month declined by the most since February 2015. The U.S. economy has never ever seen industrial production drop year-over-year for seven months in a row without being in a recession, Zero Hedge noted.

Moreover, total business sales have fallen again, and the inventory to sales ratio has hit the highest level since the last financial crisis, Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog noted.When you add these three classic recession signals to the 19 troubling numbers about the U.S. economy that I wrote about last week, it paints a very disturbing picture.

59% polled say economy worsening: And some new key sentiment reports confirm that the U.S. public is not feeling optimistic about the state of the economy. The University of Michigans consumer confidence index fell for the fourth straight month to hit its lowest level since September 2015.

Consumers reported a slowdown in expected wage gains, weakening inflation-adjusted income expectations, and growing concerns that slowing economic growth would reduce the pace of job creation, it noted.

Meanwhile, a new Gallup U.S. Economic Confidence Index found similar pessimism. Fully 59% say the economy is getting worse against just 37% who say it is getting better, CNBC said of the polls findings. That gap of 22 percentage points is the worst since August. Apparently the fear that the days of sub-$2 gasoline prices are coming to an end has stoked the publics unease.

Despite the sluggish growth picture and the inability of the economy to create substantial numbers of middle-class jobs, some on the Fed continue to talk up at least two interest-rate increases this year. That hawkish tone flies in the face of sinking GDP expectations from major independent firms as well as even some of the Feds own number crunchers.

GDP estimates nose-diving: For example, the Atlanta Feds GDP Now tracker currently estimates second-quarter growth at 0.3% as of April 13. And the New York Feds NowCast model just cut first-quarter GDP from 1.5% to just 0.8%, while slashing its second-quarter target from 1.9% to 1.2%. Its first-half 2016 GDP estimate now stands at only 1.0%. With the U.S. economy so close to recessionary GDP numbers, can the Fed afford to raise rates without crashing the system?

Although the top Fed policymakers are denying the U.S. is in danger of a recession, its important to remember that the Fed missed the financial crisis of 2009, with then-chief Ben Bernanke telling the public that all was contained.

Put 10% in gold for insurance: Investors should consider taking advantage of golds current price levels to prepare for the possibility that the Fed could get it awfully wrong all over again. Economists herd and are wrong most of the time, West Shore Funds strategist Jim Rickards told Fox Business this month. The Fed has never predicted a recession; weve had many, so dont listen to economists, listen to executives. Trump may or may not be right, but Id rather listen to an executive than an economist.

On gold allocation levels, Rickards added, I recommend 10% of your investable assets; people say, Sell everything, buy gold. I dont recommend that. Ten percent of your investable assets. If Im wrong and gold does nothing, you wont get hurt with 10%. But if Im right, if everything else crashes or if Trumps right, gold will go up by multiples, so thats your insurance for the rest of your portfolio.

Numismatic market seems to have come to life as National Coin Week begins

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Writing recently in CoinWeek, the president of the American Numismatic Association (ANA) issued a bullish prognosis on the state of the hobby as well as the rare coin market.

The market for rare coins seems to have come to life, Jeff Garrett noted. 2016 should be a great year for the hobby.

Garrett attributed the pickup in the numismatic market to the gains seen in the bullion world, led by golds 17% advance in the first quarter of the year. Although collectible coins dont really derive the bulk of their value from their precious-metals content, Garrett nonetheless noted that the same forces that drive bullion prices also can influence the values of rare coins, namely: the need for physical assets to serve as a hedge against inflation and drops in the stock market, as well as the search for yield in a world of low and even negative interest rates.

Iconic Liberty designed revived: Next week (April 17-23) the ANA celebrates National Coin Week with special events at its Edward C. Rochette Money Museum in Colorado Springs, Colo. Its theme this year is Portraits of Liberty: Icon of Freedom, which marks the centennial of three landmark coin designs: the Mercury (or Winged Liberty) Dime, the Standing Liberty Quarter, and the Walking Liberty Half Dollar.

Sculptor Adolph A. Weinman designed the Winged Liberty Dime and the Walking Liberty Half Dollar, while sculptor Hermon A. MacNeil created the Standing Liberty Quarter. So iconic are these images that the U.S. Mint is releasing 24-karat gold versions of the silver coins to celebrate their original introduction in 1916, with the 2016 gold dime (a tenth-ounce coin) set to go on sale April 21. The gold quarter will be a quarter ounce, while the half dollar will be a half ounce.

But heres an idea: While these modern reproductions of those classic coins are beautiful tributes, why not focus on acquiring the original silver versions? After all, they have been loved by collectors and coveted by investors since they ceased production decades ago: the Mercury Dime ended in 1945, the Standing Liberty Quarter ceased in 1930, and the Walking Liberty Half Dollars last year was 1947. Their value as collectible coins has now been well-established for decades.

Celebrate National Coin Week by buying a rare U.S. coin today!

Unscheduled Fed meetings raise eyebrows as regulators warn JPMorgan threatens U.S. financial stability

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Whats the Federal Reserve been up to lately? Well, for one, the notably secretive central bank has held several unscheduled closed meetings of its top policymakers in the past two weeks.

The Fed announced these meetings on its Web site under expedited procedures. The topics the bankers discussed purportedly included a bank supervisory matter (April 6, April 12); a review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks (April 11); and a periodic briefing and discussion on financial markets, institutions, and infrastructure (April 13).

Yellen meets with Obama, Biden: Why are these significant? Because the last time such a meeting took place was on November 21, less then a month before the Feds historic first rate hike in years, Zero Hedge noted. With recessionary signs building in the U.S. and the presidential elections generating huge controversies, the Fed could have been discussing some major policy actions to launch if the economy continues to soften.

Even more interesting was another closed meeting on April 11 held after the Feds conclave this one between Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and none other than BOTH President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. Thats almost unprecedented.

President pleased with Yellen: According to the White House, The President and Chair Yellen met this afternoon in the Oval Office as part of an ongoing dialogue on the state of the economy. They discussed both the near and long-term growth outlook, the state of the labor market, inequality, and potential risks to the economy, both in the United States and globally. They also discussed the significant progress that has been made through the continued implementation of Wall Street Reform to strengthen our financial system and protect consumers.

Meanwhile, Obamas spokesman issued a statement saying that the president is pleased with the job Yellens been doing, and that the meeting would give them a chance to discuss the economy. Its an opportunity for them in some ways to trade notes on something theyre both looking at quite carefully, Josh Earnest said.

5 big banks fail living will test: But maybe these unprecedented meetings have something to do with an issue thats never quite gone away since the 2009 financial crisis: too big to fail banks.

According to The New York Times, the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) just warned five of the nations eight largest banks, which are now bigger than they were during the financial crisis, that they are still too big to fail. In other words, the five did not have credible plans for how they would wind themselves down in a crisis without sowing panic. That suggests that if there were another crisis today, the government would need to prop up the largest banks if it wanted to avoid financial chaos.

The crisis plans (or living wills) submitted by JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, State Street, and Bank of New York Mellon are not credible or would not facilitate an orderly resolution under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, the regulators said.

Letter to JPMorgan heavily censored: Only Citigroup passed the muster of both agencies, while both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were OKd by only one of the agencies.

The goal to end too big to fail and protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts remains just that: only a goal, said FDIC Vice Chairman Thomas Hoenig.

The Fed and FDIC also released a heavily redacted letter they sent to JPMorgan, which just announced declining profits and revenue for the first quarter, with the stark warning that the deficiencies in its emergency plan could pose serious adverse effects to the financial stability of the United States.

JPMorgan does not have an appropriate model and process for estimating and maintaining sufficient liquidity at, or readily available to, material entities in resolution, the letter read. JPMCs liquidity profile is vulnerable to adverse actions by third parties.

In other words, the biggest U.S. banks especially JPMorgan still remain highly interconnected and vulnerable to contagion if another debt/liquidity crisis erupts. The fact that so much of the banks business had to be censored before publication should raise eyebrows about the relationship of the big banks and their overseers.

Monetary policies at their limit: Moreover, the very regulator overseeing the biggest banks appears dangerously out of bullets to revive the economy without majorly aggressive action. Former Fed chief Alan Greenspan warned that monetary policy has done everything it can unless you want to put additional QEs on. Meanwhile, Greenspans successor at the Fed, Ben Bernanke, just posted an article calling for the radical idea of highly inflationary helicopter money to stimulate the economy, if necessary.

With the biggest banks still dangerous derivative- and debt-stuffed time bombs waiting to go off, the case for gold and silver to protect wealth has perhaps never been greater.

Silver is confirming golds bullish breakout in 2016 with monster rally

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Gold hit a three-week high Tuesday and has since pulled back as stocks have risen, but the real story this week has been silver.

After breaking through the psychologically key $16 level, the white metal hit a fresh 5.5-month high of $16.31 and is now up more than 15% for the year.

Silver is finally catching up to the gold rally, Bloomberg noted Tuesday. Silver rallied 7.8% in the past four sessions, more than twice the pace of golds increase, helped by signs of improving industrial demand and mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve will be slow to boost interest rates.

ETFs go through the roof: One reason for silvers resurgence has been strong inflows into exchange-traded funds linked to the metal, while in contrast, gold ETF holdings have been relatively flat in recent weeks. According to Bloomberg, silver ETF holdings have jumped to December 2014 highs.

With about 946 metric tons of silver added to ETFs this year, silver holdings of physically backed ETFs have gone through the roof, Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah told Reuters.

Eagle sales at record clip: Investments in physical silver also are soaring. As of Tuesday, sales totals of silver American Eagle bullion coins have hit 15.964 million ounces. Thats 31.2% higher than sales at the same time in 2016, which was a record year for silver Eagles.

Meanwhile, the Perth Mint was reporting its strongest silver sales in six months, with the Australian company logging its seventh straight month of sales above 1 million ounces. Its March silver bullion sales are 67.4% higher than Februarys and 175% higher than March 2015.

Maple Leaf sales up 76%: Moreover, according to Jason Hamlin of GoldStockBull, in Canada, the latest quarterly report of Silver Maple Leafs had sales up 76% year on year. Indian silver imports were a record 8,506 tonnes (273,473,854 ounces) in 2015.

Hamlins conclusion? The bottom line is that silver is in the early stage of confirming golds bullish breakout in 2016. It now just needs to push above $16 and hold this level for a few consecutive days.

Key ratio favors silver: The widely watched gold-silver ratio also is flashing a buy signal for the white metal. Down from its March peak of 83.2, its now near 78.7, meaning that it takes that many ounces of silver to buy a single ounce of gold. Though now at about 3.5-month lows, the current ratio still continues to suggest that silver is very undervalued relative to gold.

We see further potential for the silver price to catch up on the gold price in the medium term, Commerzbank analysts wrote. That said, the silver price could suffer a setback in the short term as we believe that it has risen too quickly especially given that speculative financial investors continued to bet heavily on climbing silver prices in the week to April 5, with net long positions totaling 43,300 contracts.

$3,000 gold in 3 years, bull predicts, while HSBC team sets nearer-term $1,500 target

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After hitting three-week highs on Tuesday, gold snapped a four-day winning streak but remains poised for further gains, according to several top analysts.

Underpinning gold prices the most is a continuing belief that the Federal Reserve is backing away from the hawkish policy it adopted in December 2015 with its first interest-rate hike in almost a decade. Fed chief Janet Yellen re-emphasized her dovish approach in a new interview with Time magazine, saying the great deal of uncertainty about the global economy justifies her cautious stance as she strived to avoid the big mistakes.

Falling retail-sales numbers for March, as well as an unexpected drop in wholesale prices, add fuel to the Yellens argument that the U.S. recovery remains on shaky ground. Meanwhile, the IMF just slashed global growth forecasts again, while its former top economist warned that Japan is in the terminal stage of an unsustainable debt spiral.

Gundlach still bullish on gold: And DoubleLine Capital exec Jeff Gundlach reiterated his belief that the central bank will stay with its easy-money approach for the rest of 2016, saying he thinks the Fed is one and done in terms of rate hikes this year. I remain bullish on gold; I own gold miners, Gundlach told his clients.

Top Deutsche Bank economist Joseph LaVorgna also predicted ongoing easy-money policies from the Fed, saying corporate debt levels have grown to high for the central bank to risk lifting rates too much.

Currently, the ratio of nonfinancial corporate debt to national income is nearly 45%, an elevated reading that suggests corporate balance sheets are not in particularly good shape, LaVorgna said. Contrary to much of the recent non-Yellen FOMC rhetoric, we believe the Fed will not be able to hike rates very much off their current level.

TDS sees potential $1,307: A weakening U.S. dollar from the Feds policies is one reason that TD Securities sees gold targeting $1,300 this year, along with concerns about a Great Britain exit, or Brexit, from the European Union.

Reduced opportunity cost of holding gold and a limited pool of assets investors/managers have available to hedge against Brexit-related volatility would suggest that prices may still test recent highs near $1,285/oz. if not $1,307/oz. as the quarter unfolds, said TDS analysts.

RBC scenario would hit $1,546: And following RBC Capitals 9% increase in its gold price targets, two of its analysts have issued an ultra-bullish note on the yellow metal. Tyler Broda and Alexandra Slattery see parallels between todays environment and the 1970s when it comes to gold.

A dovish stance has raised the risks for inflation, they wrote, and real rates are now trending back down again along with an increase in gold ETF demand and the gold price.

Based on a regression analysis holding gold as the independent variable, a negative 0.5% real rate level would suggest a gold price of $1,380/oz and a negative 1.0% real rate level would suggest a gold price $1,546/oz.

They conclude: Gold investment appears to be moving towards stronger fundamentals than we have seen over the past few years. In summary, should U.S. monetary policy not be on the path to normalization, a fundamental change in the benefit of gold ownership is taking place, and this increased investment demand should lead to higher gold prices. There is increasing upside risk to gold prices.

Initial target of $1,500 for HSBC: And an HSBC technical team also sees big upside for gold, citing Elliot Wave analysis.

The U.S. dollar price of gold is in an uptrend with a bullish Elliott Wave structure, said Murray Gunn, HSBCs head of technical analysis.

With momentum turning up we open a long position at a spot reference of $1,260. A stop-loss is set at $1,200 with an initial target of $1,500.

Perfect storm could spell $3,000: And speaking at the recent Dubai Precious Metals Conference, Diego Parrilla, co-author of The Energy World Is Flat, predicted that gold could top $3,000 in the next three years. A perfect storm for gold is brewing, he said. Central banks continue to push and test the limits of monetary policy, credit markets, and fiat currencies, which could result in gold prices above $3,000/oz. within three years.

Parrilla thinks that now is the time to buy the dips because gold has few hundred dollars of downside from here but a few thousands of dollars of upside from here.