Sagging oil prices have sent shock waves through the financial markets in the past several months, and now news that Iran is about to start pumping crude back into the global system has upped the ante on those fears.

The lifting of international sanctions against Tehran over the weekend means that oil prices which already were trading near a 12-year low of $28 a barrel Monday could have much further to fall, the International Energy Agency has warned.

While the pace of stock-building eases in the second half of the year as supply from non-OPEC producers falls, unless something changes, the oil market could drown in oversupply, said the IEA. Prices could go lower.

Why is the falling price of oil important? Because in addition to higher prices being synonymous with positive world growth, plummeting energy prices mean that numerous drilling and refining companies, particularly those in North Americas shale patches, are going bankrupt. That means the loss of thousands of well-paying engineering and processing jobs.

Bonds signal 44% recession odds: The stress is already manifesting itself in the struggling high-yield, or junk-bond market, which is indicating a 44% chance of a recession in the U.S. within one year, largely because of the nose-diving oil sector, Bloomberg reported.

Furthermore, an analysis published at Zero Hedge estimated that 80 U.S. energy firms have a combined debt of $325 billion. And, since 2015, 42 North American oil companies have sought bankruptcy protection.

Recall that the mortgage meltdown helped spur the crisis of 2008-09. Now some analysts are concerned that dropping oil prices could light the spark for a new Lehman Bros.-style catastrophe. Big banks brace for oil loans to implode, a CNN story reported.

Three of Americas biggest banks warned last week that oil prices will continue to create headaches on Wall Street especially if doomsday scenarios of $20 or even $10 oil play out, the story said.

Banks burdened with massive exposure: According to CNN, Wells Fargo has loaned more than $17 billion to the energy sector and is setting aside $1.2 billion to cover any potential losses. Meanwhile, JPMorgan is setting aside anywhere from $124 million to $750 million to cover losses. And Citigroup has built up $300 million in loan-loss reserves, with the danger of that rising as high as $1.2 billion if oil prices keep stagnating.

Right now the banking industry to downplaying the issue. Were not worried about the big oil companies. These are mostly the smaller ones that youre talking, JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon said.

However, remember when then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke insisted that the subprime mortgage crisis was contained? Now we seem to be hearing the same sort of razzle-dazzle.

For the moment, these big banks are telling the public that the damage can be contained, commented Michel Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog. But didnt they tell us the same thing about subprime mortgages in 2008? We are already seeing bank stocks start to slide precipitously.People are beginning to realize that these banks are dangerously exposed to a lot of really bad deals.

Imagine 1 billion refugees: Moreover, if oil continues to fester or tank even further, the risks of geopolitical tensions and unrest could grow. Look how many countries in Africa, for example, depend on the income from oil exports,said the World Economic Forums executive chairman, Klaus Schwab, ahead of the groups 2016 meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Now imagine 1 billion inhabitants, imagine they all move north, he added, warning of unexpected consequences and a substantial social breakdown.

Falling oil prices and cheap gasoline are often touted as a blessing in our automobile-centric society. But todays energy crisis is showing us that the issue is much more complex, with serious implications for all of our portfolios. While this situation plays out, the most prudent course of action is to stay defensive with a healthy allocation of precious metals and rare coins.

If you needed any more proof that the world economy is slowing, then look to the latest growth report on the worlds second-largest economy, China. The International Monetary Fund already has, and its cutting its global GDP outlook for the third time in a year.

Chinas GDP for 2015 came in at 6.9% for the year down from the 7.3% gained in 2014 and 6.8% for the fourth quarter. The numbers verify that Chinas economy is growing at its slowest pace in 25 years.

This soft GDP announcement compounds to the recent data from China which has followed a negative trajectory and has consequently intensified the mounting anxieties around the slowing pace of growth in the worlds second largest economy, wrote Lukman Otunuga of FXTM. With China GDP growth below the golden 7% yearly target, the visible economic slowdown may have further elevated investors fears toward the failure of a series of aggressive measures by Beijing to revive growth and as such may reinforce the bearish sentiment toward the Chinese economy, Otunuga said.

Dr. Doom says China even worse off: Indeed, the Peoples Bank of China also announced Tuesday that it will inject more than 600 billion yuan ($91.22 billion) into the economy to help ease liquidity concerns before the Lunar New Year holiday on Feb. 8. Wall Street stocks bounced Tuesday on hopes of continuing Chinese stimulus.

But dont go believing everything the Chinese government tells you about its economy, contrarian economist Marc Faber said. My sense is that at very best, the economy is growing at around 4% per annum, but it could be lower, he told CNBC. We have this colossal debt bubble in China, and in my opinion this will have to be deflated through either huge losses in the banking sector or losses in the bond market for investors. In addition to that, we have essentially a stock market bubble, which now is being deflated.

Downside risks running high: As a result of Chinas woes, the IMF has now cut its growth forecasts for both 2016 and 2017, saying: Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside and relate to ongoing adjustments in the global economy.

It cut its global GDP target for this year to 3.4% from a projected 3.6% in October, while also lowering hopes for 2017 by cutting its 3.8% target from 3.8% to 3.6%. The downgrades follow a 2015 that saw the global economy grow at its weakest pace since 2009 (at 3.1%).

This coming year is going to be a year of great challenges and policymakers should be thinking about short-term resilience and the ways they can bolster it, but also about the longer-term growth prospects,IMF chief economistMauriceObstfeldwarned. Unless the key transitions in the world economy are successfully navigated, global growth could be derailed.

Feds rate hike causing turbulence: The IMF cited three major factors for its gloom: the emerging-market slowdown, Chinas shift to growth driven less by exports and manufacturing, and the Federal Reserves gradual exit from ultra-low interest rates, Bloomberg noted.

Although the IMF is relatively confident about the U.S. economy, others are not so sure. The latest sign that the U.S. is slowing down can be seen in 10-year Treasury bond yields, which fell to around 2% this month. Deutsche Bank has even issued a forecast for sub-2% yields, down to 1.75%.

The American economy has lost its animal spirits, Hideaki Kuriki of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management told Bloomberg. The potential growth rate of the American economy is going down. Longer term, yields may go down.

The odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year after December 2015s landmark hike have fallen to 69% from 93% at the start of the year, according to the same Bloomberg report.

The bottom line on all this slowing growth is that central banks around the world, particularly the Fed, will be hard-pressed to raise rates and in fact will be forced to further devalue their currencies in order to revive their economies and stoke growth. Just look to Canada, which increasingly seems to be considering imposing negative rates to lift itself out of its oil-crunch-induced depression. The current landscape remains highly favorable for precious metals such as gold and silver.

With equity prices on the Shanghai stock market down about 40% since June 2014 and falling into bear territory last week, Chinese investors are renewing their love affair with gold.

In addition to its plummeting stock market, China is now on course to grow at its slowest pace since 1990. And with China devaluing the currency in an attempt to boost exports and reverse its downturn, money is flowing into perceived safe-haven assets such as domestic bonds, gold and the dollar, Reuters confirmed.

Faith in stocks fading: The news agency published some disturbing quotes from Chinese investors who have been snake-bitten by the startling decline in stock prices. I just have a small amount of money in the stock market. I had planned to sell when indexes got a little bit higher, but soon it dropped to this situation, said a 22-year-old investor in Guangdong named Zhou Junan. I dont have faith in the stock market any more.

Another unidentified investor in Beijing added, Except for gold, all other assets are just bubbles to me. I guess I am a pessimist. If there are really some global conflicts, even dollars and bonds could not buy a meal.

We notice a rise in gold investment whenever theres concern over yuan depreciation, said Richard Xu, the manager of Chinas biggest gold ETF. Buying gold also helps investors avoid risks in equities. It serves double purposes.

Increase in gold buying for new year: In addition to concerns about the bearish stock market and the weakening yuan, Chinese citizens also are buying in anticipation of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday on Feb. 8.

With the spring festival approaching, there is some increase in demand as people are buying gifts. We expect the demand to pick up toward the end of the month as the spring festival is in early February, Shandong Gold Group analyst Shu Jiang told Reuters.

In the meantime, Chinas financial sector continues to take steps to boost the nations gold trade. Via the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the China Foreign Exchange Trading System, China has launched interbank gold trading at the beginning of this year, in an effort to open up the countrys bullion market, CCTV noted. At least 10 banks will be involved at the first-tier level, including the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group.

Before the new mechanism, banks were not allowed to trade gold with each other and could only buy the precious metal through the Shanghai Gold Exchange, CCTV added.

Whether Chinas economic crisis has the power to take down the rest of the globe with it is up for debate. But nowhere else on the planet right now is the need for gold so crucial than in China, home to an unbelievable bubble of stocks juiced up on massive debt.

In the wake of news that the Atlanta Federal Reserves widely watched U.S. GDP forecasting model had slashed fourth-quarter growth to a mere 0.6%, now comes an even worse downgrade, this from one of the worlds largest banks.

In the wake of dismal December retail-sales and other economic data, JPMorgan Chase has officially grown more pessimistic, slashing its fourth-quarter GDP projection to an annualized 0.1%, from a previous estimate of 1%, and lowered its first-quarter forecast by a quarter of a percentage point to 2%, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Weak retail forces downgrade: The exceptionally weak December sales figure is a bit of a head scratcher, chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said. Job growth was booming last month, gas prices were down, sentiment measures were up, and warmer-than-normal winter temperatures prevailed last month, which historically tends to boost retail sales.

If JPM is right, and if the U.S. economy effectively did not grow in the fourth quarter, this would make it the worst GDP print since Q1 of 2014, and tied for the third worst quarter since 2009, Zero Hedge commented.

Moreover, JPMorgan also is cutting its expectations for the first quarter of 2016. We are also lowering some our outlook for Q1 GDP growth from 2.25% to 2.0%, its analysts wrote. While the inventory situation should turn to being roughly neutral for growth, the quarterly arithmetic on consumer spending got a little more challenging after this mornings retail sales figure, which implies flat real consumer spending in December. We now see real consumer spending in Q1 at 2.5%, versus 3.0% previously.

Recession chances now at 28.2%: Although JPMorgans growth figures remain in positive territory, the potential for further downgrades is possible, while a new poll finds that recession odds are on the rise.

The chances of a recession in the United States are at their highest levels since the fall of 2011, according to the CNBC Fed Survey, the news company reported. The survey also showed recession fears rising for the sixth straight time among respondents, and are now sitting at 28.8%.

Complicating this picture of Americas slowing growth are ongoing concerns about China as well as worries about slumping oil prices, which could roil the junk-bond market further as well as the big banks, and the likelihood of another negative corporate earnings season. The prospect of four straight quarters of earnings declines is staring investors in the face on top of the worst multiweek selloff for stocks in years, and the worst start of the year ever, noted MarketWatch.

Barrons experts see low rates ahead: The upshot of all this is that the Fed likely will be forced to backtrack on it interest-rate hiking program. The new edition of Barrons Roundtable recently weighed in on the current environment and thinks the Federal Reserve, which finally lifted interest rates in December for the first time in seven years, wont hike four more times during 2016, notwithstanding its stated intentions, Barrons summarized. Thats because market conditions simply wont allow it. Indeed, Fed Chair Janet Yellen might even be forced to ease again after lifting rates one more time.

John Rubino of DollarCollapse.com sees three possibilities for the Fed: 1) a new but modest round of QE; 2) an expansion of the existing QE program; or 3) a more ambitious and inflationary salvo that Rubino calls QE for the people, featuring negative interest rates, debt jubilees, and the helicopter money that Ben Bernanke long ago promised to use in case of full-blown deflation along with a nice selection of capital controls to keep unruly savers, investors and other enemies of society in line.

Under any of these scenarios, in which the Fed views its printing press as the solution to all economic problems, gold and silver bullion plus rare coins remain must-own assets for every portfolio.

In a theme that seems to be recurring this year, gold was one of the lone bright spots on Wall Street as stocks stumbled deeper into bear territory and key economic indicators are all but screaming a recession in the U.S.

Gold rose by almost 2% on Friday, breaking the $1,090 barrier and trading near $1,089 early afternoon. We have had a good start to the year, with prices trying to consolidate into a higher range between $1,080 and $1,100, ActivTrades chief analyst Carlo Alberto de Casa said.

Chinas stock losses as well as oils continued decline below $30 sent fresh shock waves though U.S. markets and bolstered golds appeal. A recovery in bullion is prompted by the equity weakness overnight in China, and its been reinforced by the declines today, HSBC gold analyst James Steel told Bloomberg.

U.S. stocks were in the red Friday, with the Dow losing more than 500 points at the depths of its decline, while the S&P 500 broke below its Aug. 24 low, which several market strategists said would be tantamount to a major sell signal, MarketWatch noted.

So far in 2016, gold has acted as a fear asset as money has been flowing out of stocks, crude oil and copper, confirmed Taki Tsaklanos of Investing Haven.

U.S. economic momentum is slowing so quickly that the Atlanta Federal Reserve has once again slashed its fourth-quarter GDP estimate from 0.8% to 0.6%.

Retail, manufacturing data tumble: U.S. stocks also were pressured by some dismal U.S. data that suggest the economy is falling into a recession-level malaise. Although Christmas is supposed to be the gift that keeps on giving for retailers, the monthly figures jolted analysts. Sales at U.S. retailers declined in December to wrap the weakest year since 2009, raising concern about the momentum in consumer spending heading into 2016, Bloomberg reported.

There isnt anything encouraging in this report, Jefferies economist Thomas Simons said of the 0.1% drop.

And just as jarring was a key report on the manufacturing sector, the Empire Fed survey, which printed a disastrous -19.37 the largest miss on record, Zero Hedge noted, recalling that the last time Empire Fed crashed to these levels was theimmediate aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy and the global financial crisis and the peak of the recession in 2001.

Adding to the grim picture was news that U.S. industrial production plunged 1.8% year-over-year the fastest pace of collapse since May 2008 and a level that has never not produced a recession; U.S. producer prices fell in December, confirming that the Fed is falling short of its 2% inflation target; and Walmart announced that its closing 269 stores and laying off as many as 16,000 workers.

Fed already balking at more hikes: So, whats the gist of all these recessionary indicators and plunging stock indexes? Four weeks and one market meltdown later, the Feds decision (to raise interest rates in December) no longer looks quite so clever, Londons Guardian newspaper argued. Indeed, if things continue as they have since the turn of 2016, the increase in U.S. interest rates will go down in the annals as one of the great economic blunders.

Indeed, the slaughter in stock markets already seems to have the Fed backtracking on its announced tightening plans. St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard suggested Thursday that very substantial plunges in oil prices could influence the central banks hiking timetable, which its top officials have said could occur four times this year.

But maybe not, now. On Friday, New York Fed head William Dudley apparently indicated that if the U.S. economy weakens enough, the bank would consider not raising rates but imposing negative interest rates, in which banks charge fees on deposits to encourage monetary velocity. Negative rates would be wildly gold-bullish.

And Global Macro Investor publisher Raoul Pal went so far as to predict the Fed will be reversing course entirely because of deepening economic woes. If you look at S&P earnings, for example, they have not been at these kinds of levels ever outside of a recession, he told CNBC on Wednesday. There are so many indicators that were in a recession. You see global growth and its suggesting that the market should go lower and its based on the fact that the global economy is getting worse.

Because of this, Pal predicted the Fed will be loosening policy rather than continuing to tighten. I dont think itll be QE next time; I think itll be something else. Negative rates, some sort of targeted fiscal stimulus by the Fed, Pal said.

Although no one can be happy about the plunge in stocks and the deeper implications of the slowdowns in China and the U.S., those holding gold can take some measure of solace in the notion that the yellow metal is responding positively to current market turmoil, and if the Fed is forced to reverse course, the sky could be the limit for bullion prices as the implications of a Fed mea culpa sink in.

Billionaire investor George Soros grabbed headlines last week when he warned that China has a major adjustment problem. I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the crisis we had in 2008.

Not everyone thinks the current financial landscape is as bad as Soros was indicating, but given that hes worth about $27 billion and ran a hedge fund that returned an average of 20% from 1969 to 2011, one discounts his diagnosis at his or her own risk.

However, Soros is not a lone voice crying in the wilderness. Some very serious money managers and investment banks are issuing warnings of their own, particularly about stocks. Although the Chinese stock crisis has stabilized somewhat in the past week, plunging oil prices are among the distress signals indicating all is not right with the global economy.

Lets start with the bond worlds top investment guru, Jeff Gundlach, whose DoubleLine Capital firm beat 94% of its peer funds last year:

1. Gold key to capital preservation: During a recent presentation Gundlach, who last year was criticizing the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates amid a nascent U.S. economic slowdown, expressed his concerns about 2016.

   Falling commodity prices are symptoms of Chinas struggling economy, he warned, and the sub-$30 oil prices that have jolted the junk-bond market will eventually spill over into the stock market and could even stoke geopolitical instability in regions like the Middle East.

   This is a capital-preservation market, not a money-making environment,he said. 2016 is not looking all that great, potentially. We could be looking at a really ugly situation during the first quarter of 2016. Its particularly more likely to happen if the Fed keeps banging this drum of raising interest rates against falling inflation.

   Gundlach, however, does see at least one bright spot in gold. He thinks the metal is showing signs of a bottom and sees the price reaching $1,400 an ounce.

2. 75% decline in S&P 500: Now lets turn to a new forecast by Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards, whose bearish stance shouldnt surprise anyone who follows his analysis. Still, even for Edwards, this is a pessimistic outlook: He sees the S&P 500 dropping below its March 2009 bear-market low of 666 in a 75% decline that would take the index to 550.

   Meanwhile, SocGen researcher Andrew Lapthorne said that now is not the time for bottom fishing in stocks. When we see equities starting to lose value, the immediate reaction is, Well things must be cheap. But because weve had such an outrageous increase in valuations, were a long, long way from seeing assets become cheap again, he said.

   As for Chinas problems, Edwards said the effects will be far-reaching. Investors are coming to terms with what a Chinese renminbi devaluation means for Western markets, he wrote in a note. It means global deflation and recession.

   As China exports its deflation, the Western manufacturing sector will choke under this imported deflationary tourniquet. Indeed, U.S. manufacturing seems to be suffering particularly badly already.

   Edwards is predicting a meltdown at least on the level of the 2008 crisis. The Fed and its promiscuous fraternity of central banks have created the conditions for another debacle every bit as large as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, he wrote. I believe the events we now see unfolding will drive us back into global recession.

3. Cataclysmic year ahead, RBS says: Could Edwards be wrong? Of course. But his bearishness is almost matched by that of the 20^th-largest bank in the world, the Royal Bank of Scotland.

   Sell everything except high-quality bonds, its credit team advised, and its next statement sounded very similar to Gundlachs take. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.

   In predicting a cataclysmic year, the bank is bracing for 10% to 20% declines in global stock markets and oil prices below $20 a barrel. Theres no getting around Chinas slowdown, said one of its researchers.

   China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball, said Andrew Roberts. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the Goldilocks love-in of the last two years.

   The bank also warned about repercussions from the Feds current tightening policy, accusing the U.S. central bank of playing with fire by raising rates in the current setting, in which U.S. manufacturing is in contraction. There has already been severe monetary tightening in the U.S. from the rising dollar.

4. Cash and gold if bear market erupts: And across the pond from Scotland, J.P. Morgan Chase has issued a sell recommendation to its clients for the first time in seven years.

   Our view is that the risk-reward for equities has worsened materially. In contrast to the past seven years, when we advocated using the dips as buying opportunities, we believe the regime has transitioned to one of selling any rally, strategist Mislav Matejka wrote.

   One reason: Expectations for the most recent earnings season, with reported results soon coming due, are not high. We fear that the incoming fourth-quarter reporting season wont be able to provide much reassurance for stocks, he said.

   Given that history shows that the first five trading days of any given year are sometimes a valid indicator for the rest of the years performance for stocks, and given that nearly half of U.S. stocks are already in a bear market, perhaps J.P. Morgans diagnosis is worth prudent consideration.

   Meanwhile, another top J.P. Morgan analyst, Marko Kolanovic, specifically endorsed gold as a possible safe harbor. In case an equity bear market materializes this year, investors should benefit from increasing allocation to cash or gold, he wrote. Cash has zero correlation to all risky assets, while gold has recently exhibited strong negative correlation to risky assets (e.g. -40% to equities).

5. Rail cargo levels look recessionary: The crashing Baltic Dry shipping-activity index, now at record lows, is often cited as a primary indicator that Chinas slowdown is deeply affecting global trade. And in this age of intermodal commercial transportation, one doesnt have to look too far to see trade sputtering in the U.S.

   Railroad cargo in the U.S. dropped the most in six years in 2015, and things arent looking good for the new year, Bloomberg reported this week.

   As a result, Bank of America has sent out a note suggesting that the repercussions from slowing railroad volumes point to an overall slack in the U.S. economy. We believe rail data may be signaling a warning for the broader economy, its analysts wrote. Carloads have declined more than 5% in each of the past 11 weeks on a year-over-year basis. While one-off volume declines occur occasionally, they are generally followed by a recovery shortly thereafter. The current period of substantial and sustained weakness, including last weeks -10.1% decline, has not occurred since 2009.

   In a survey of 30 years of railroad data, BofA analysts found that similar periods of weakness have occurred in only five otherinstances since 1985: (1) the majority of 1988, (2) the first half of 1991, (3) severalweeks in early 1996, (4) late 2000 and early 2001, and (5) late 2008 and the majority of2009 all either overlapped with a recession,or preceded a recession by a few quarters.

Taken individually, perhaps each one of these five forecasts could be rationalized and marginalized into potential nonissues. But taken together, its hard to ignore the fact that so many voices are warning that the problems in the global economy are too large to dismiss. Now more than ever, investors need to protect their wealth through prudent portfolio diversification, including defensive measures like substantial allocations to cash and tangible assets such precious metals (gold and silver) and rare coins.