The Group of Seven gathering wrapped up last week with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abes warning about the dangers of a new Lehman-style collapse being downplayed by his colleagues. Now this week come renewed concerns from French banking giant Societe Generale about some looming black swans on the horizon.

8 of past 10 Junes have been rough: And in the shorter term, brace yourself for a potentially volatile month ahead. June historically can be the worst for financial markets. Eight of the last ten June’s has been down, Martin Currie fund manager Michael Browne told CNBC. It is the worst month of the year in the last decade, not by a little bit but by an absolute street.

And UBS just outlined some major events coming fast and furious in June that could unsettle markets. The Swiss banks list includes three major central-bank meetings (the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan), along with key votes in Europe: the United Kingdoms June 23 Brexit referendum on whether to leave the European Union, as well as Spain’s June 26 general elections.

Euro uncertainty is top risk: On the macro level, SocGen warns that risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside. It compiled its own list of so-called black swan events unexpected or surprise occurrences with the power to affect the world. Its top black swans are:

1. Double-drag from European policy uncertainty: 40%
2. China hard landing: 30%
3. Sharp re-pricing of Fed expectations: 25%
4. Sharply weaker global growth: 20%

Commenting on the risks in Europe, its analysts wrote, With a very busy political agenda lined up for the coming quarters, the risk of an event delivering an unexpected outcome remains high, be it the OMT (outright monetary transactions) judgment from the German Constitutional Court on June 21, the U.K. Brexit referendum on June 23, Spanish election on June 26, Italian referendum in October and heading into 2017, elections in France, Germany, Netherlands and possibly Italy.

Bubble building in Chinese real estate: China’s economic problems, which shocked global markets in the past year and sent gold prices soaring, haven’t gone away either. The potential for policy errors in China is substantial, and all the more so since a new bubble appears to be building in the property market, the bank wrote. The authorities are clearly keen to start recognizing and tackling the mountain of non-performing loans. The approach will be one of trial and error, with the downside risks implied in the name.

The main concern for U.S. markets continues to be the likelihood of an interest-rate increase from the Fed. SocGen sees the central bank standing pat on rates until December, but its pronouncements along the way can rattle investors.

If the Fed sends too hawkish a message, the risk is that the re-pricing could turn disorderly. On the flip side, too dovish a Fed could see bond markets unnerved by higher inflation readings and an ever tighter labor market, SocGen said.

Although it thinks the risks of a global recession have receded somewhat, the triggers remain in place. A prolonged negative market response is the most likely mechanism to take a slowdown to outright recession, it warned.

With so many uncertainties looming in the next 30 days and beyond, investors should consider adding precious metals to their portfolios as a time-tested financial insurance policy. The ride ahead could be bumpy without it.

The week before the Memorial Day holiday weekend was brutal for gold, but with trading resuming Tuesday, bargain hunters stepped in to snap up some of the yellow metal.

Any why not buy now? Bloomberg reports that golds relative strength index shows that the metal is now entering oversold levels. Gold-linked exchange-trade funds are holding up so far. ETF investors see the current price weakness as being merely temporary and are taking advantage of price falls as a good opportunity to buy, Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note. We also believe that the current dip is merely a correction rather than a prolonged downswing.

And in contrast, an analysis of price-to-sales ratios shows that stocks are even more expensive than they were during the tech bubble in 2000.

Fed move could be priced in: Up about 1%, gold was trading near $1,216 by Tuesday afternoon. Silver struggled in comparison and was trading just under $16 in the afternoon session.

With gold having shed about 6% in the month of May, investors know that as long as the metal holds the $1,200 level, the near-term picture is solid. With gold up, it suggests the Fed fears are already marked into the market, RBC Wealth Management exec George Gero said Tuesday of expectations that the Federal Reserve might soon raise interest rates.

Some poor U.S. economic data also gave gold a boost and dented stocks, with the Dow Jones turning negative for the month of May. A consumer confidence poll published by The Conference Board showed a plunge to 10-month lows. Meanwhile, two manufacturing gauges confirmed that the industrial sector remains in a veritable recession: The Chicago PMI barometer fell back into contraction mode, while the Dallas Federal Reserves survey logged its 17^th straight month in negative territory.

Poll confirms Brexit fears rising: And Fed watchers no doubt have been watching recent polls showing that the tide could be turning toward a Brexit, or United Kingdom voters choosing to leave the European Union in a June 23 national referendum. A Guardian newspaper poll both online and via telephone found that a majority of Brits (52% versus 48%) favor a Brexit.

With the referendums outcome extremely uncertain, the U.S. Fed likely will be very loathe to raise interest rates at its June meeting, and that rate-hike threat has been perhaps the biggest reason for the metals pullback from $1,300.

Crucial jobs report due Friday: Investors also will be looking to Fridays nonfarm-payrolls report from the U.S. Labor Department for more clues on what the Fed might do with interest rates at its June meeting. A low number might almost ensure that the central bank stands pat, as it has set jobs creation as one of the rationales for its easy-money policies. Several economists already are predicting a disappointing set of numbers in the report.

A negative jobs report could give gold prices a leg up from recent lows, making the current level near $1,220 a bargain entry price for investors looking to get into precious metals or fortify their positions even further.

Another news event that investors should be aware of is Fed chief Janet Yellens speech set for June 6 in Philadelphia, at which she could give further clues on the central banks near-term policy. At this point, though, it appears that July would be the likeliest rate-hike month if one occurs soon. June is too close to the Brexit vote, while the September and November meetings are uncomfortably close to the U.S. presidential election.

The market for silver got a little brighter this week with the release of two strong real-estate reports: New-home sales jumped in April, while pending-home sales hit their highest level in a decade.

Silver famously enjoys a dual nature as a monetary metal and a commodity. Because of silver’s strong industrial applications, which run from solar power to appliances and insulation, the housing data were seen as bullish for the metal.

Traders are all looking at the pending home sales, which were terrific, and you had good new-home sales, RBC Wealth Management exec George Gero told Bloomberg. That’s been helping silver. Basically, they’re looking at it as an industrial metal, not as a precious metal.

The housing reports follow news from the Royal Canadian Mint, which saw its silver Maple Leaf coins hit an all-time sales record in the first quarter, as well as bullish supply-and-demand prognoses from Thomson Reuters GFMS and the Silver Institute.

We’ve also seen some major firms and investment banks increase their silver-price targets, including CPM Group, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Deutsche Bank.

But the latest price target touted by a mining official this week takes the cake. First Majestic Silver Corp. CEO Keith Neumeyer is now predicting three-digit silver.

For the near term, Neumeyer said, The bottom is in. Were in the beginning of a new bull phase in a very cyclical market. Gold prices are being very supportive here. Silver prices have moved higher obviously. I think we’ll end in the $20 range in silver and probably around $1,500 gold by the end of the year.

For the longer haul, his three-digit silver forecast is for $140 by 2019! That would be almost triple the roughly $50 peak last seen in 2011. The highest projection among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is $57 an ounce in 2019, the news agency noted.

Neumeyer’s $20 target looks reasonably realistic for the coming months, but his $140 forecast disputed by several analysts interviewed by Bloomberg is certainly rich food for thought.

The leaders of the Group of Seven nations met this week, and Japans prime minister had a stark warning for them: The world is facing a financial crisis as big as the 2008 Lehman Bros. collapse.

Falling commodity prices, led by crude oil, are the canary in the coalmine, Premier Shinzo Abe told his colleagues. Abe presented documents showing that commodity prices had fallen by 55% between 2014 and January 2016, similar to the margin by which they fell in 2008-09, Bloomberg reported.

The 2008 Lehman Bros. bankruptcy helped trigger the global financial crisis. Emerging markets particularly China, which is up to its neck in debt are seen as the main potential weak link this time around.

JPMorgan threatens U.S. stability: Of course, many other triggers exist. The U.S., which is supposedly one of the bright lights in the global economy, is itself overdue for a recession. A planned Federal Reserve interest-rate hike could strengthen the dollar further and wreak more havoc on emerging markets. Nevertheless, Fed chief Janet Yellen told a Harvard audience that the Fed might have to hike soon to have fresh ammo in case of a shock to the economy.

And just last month, regulators rejected the living wills of five major U.S. banks, singling out JPMorgan for special concern. A heavily redacted letter sent by the Federal Reserve and the FDIC to JPMorgan warned the megabank that flaws in its emergency plan pose serious adverse effects to the financial stability of the United States.

Japan which has implemented massive quantitative-easing programs and, more recently, negative interest rates in order to revive its stagnant economy was contemplating increasing the nationwide sales tax (from 8% to 10%), but Abe said he is delaying that plan because of his fears of a looming Lehman-style event.

Serious risks acknowledged: We agreed on the perception that we are facing serious risks, that the world economy is facing serious risks, Abe said in summarizing the meeting, while top aide Hiroshige Seko noted that G7 leaders voiced the view that emerging economies are in a severe situation, although there were views that the current economic situation is not a crisis.

Those clashing views resulted in the G7 not adopting Abes concerns in their post-summit communique. Instead of using Abes wording (We recognize the risk of the global economy exceeding the normal economic cycle and falling into a crisis), the final statement says that G7 nations have strengthened the resilience of our economies in order to avoid falling into another crisis.

Self-fulfilling sentiment feared: The G7 still sees growth on a positive track. The global recovery continues, but growth remains moderate and uneven, and since we last met downside risks to the global outlook have increased, its statement said. Weak demand and unaddressed structural problems are the key factors weighing on actual and potential growth.

The G7 leaders are either correct in their summation, or are in denial about the risks Abe warned about, or are afraid of talking down the global economy.

The G7 is obviously aware of the announcement effect the official communique has, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group economist Glenn Maguire said. In such a situation, warning of negative risks and sentiment can become self-fulfilling.

We have now gotten to the point where the worlds leaders are too scared to admit the truth over fears it will merely accelerate its inevitable arrival, Zero Hedge noted.

Gold emerged intact from Lehman wreckage: Almost no one except for a handful of market sages saw the 2008-09 financial crisis coming, most notably then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. If Abe is correct in his concerns, then now is the time to exercise an abundance of caution and prepare with safe-haven assets such as gold and silver bullion and rare coins.

After all, what thrived when all else failed in the last crisis? Gold. Those of us who lived through the 2008 financial debacle understand the importance of having a proactive plan to help overall portfolios limit their downside risk to pure guesses by the Fed. The collapse in the markets triggered a rush to gold, and intense demand and limited supplies energized an already-established bull market that saw the price peak at all-time nominal highs in 2011.

By Douglas LePre, Senior Portfolio Manager at Blanchard and Company, Inc.

In the many years that I’ve been in this market, one of my favorite areas of interest has always been type silver coins, regardless as to whether they are proof or mint state.

One of the many factors associated with my love of silver coinage is the various ways in which they tone as they age. Oxidation or toning as its referred to can be either amazingly colorful and beautiful or really dark and hard to appreciate. In my opinion toning always adds a layer of intrigue to any coin, and in some instances, quite a bit of value.

In just the last seven to 10 years, toned coins have become increasingly more popular with collectors and investors alike. I think they bring another layer to the thrill of the hunt.

Silver, gold, nickel and copper all tone at their own pace because toning takes place as a result of many different factors. Basically, coins tone as the base metal in a coin reacts with its surrounding environment. Temperature, humidity and even the means of storage can all play a role in how a coin tones.

Different gases in the air can also lead to different types of toning. One of them sulfur occurs naturally and will combine with the moisture in the air to accelerate toning. Most coins that were preserved prior to the introduction of acid-free paper or clear PVC were stored in paper and cardboard holders, wrapped in white tissue paper, sealed in brown or manila envelopes or stored in antique coin albums each of which contributed to the toning process.

Listed below are some general descriptions of how different coins tone and what collectors might expect to see from the variety of metals used in the minting process:

Copper: Orange to red or reddish-brown, and full brown to almost black.
Nickel: Silverish to a smoky gray
Silver: Blast white to light grey to black. Also greens, magenta, orange, gold and blue. Sometimes rainbow-style colors may appear, which can add significant value.
Gold: Bright yellow to orange. Sometimes a reddish color.

Sometimes its hard to see a coins beauty when its toned very darkly from dark blue to almost black. However, in other instances a coin can possess the full spectrum of a rainbow, and even still there are coins that simply possess a grayish patina that gives them a crusty original look.

Whatever the look or cause, toned coins are generally either something collectors love or hate.

There are many collectors who prefer white coins to toned examples simply because the un-toned version can cost less! Coins with rainbow toning or coins that are vibrantly toned usually carry a price tag that can be as high as two to three times that of a pure white example in the same grade.

While most toning happens naturally to coins, collectors should also be aware that some toning unfortunately can also be simulated artificially by those trying to make a quick buck. Just search the Internet to find a variety of procedures online for creating a toned appearance on coins.

Why would someone try to artificially tone a coin? Its either an attempt to improve a coins eye appeal so it can be sold for a higher price, or more often, the artificial toning is being used to hide imperfections the coin already possesses.

Regardless as to the motivation, once a coins surface has been tampered with the value of it instantly diminishes considerably. No matter how beautiful it may look and some artificially toned pieces look gorgeous if its artificially toned collectors should avoid it at all costs.

It usually takes a trained eye to distinguish whether a coin has been artificially altered or not, so collectors in search of beautifully toned coins should only purchase examples graded by the leading certification companies (PCGS or NGC) to ensure theyre purchasing the authentic article.

Collecting toned coins is a great way to expand the enjoyment that coin collecting has to offer. I find these special works of art fascinating, gorgeous, and in some instances, worth the price. I suggest that everyone take the time to explore the world of toned coins, it really does create a new layer of beauty to an already amazing medium.

The pullback in the gold bullion market was likely not on the minds of those bidding last week for an extremely rare jewel of 19^th-century American numismatics: a $20 Stella from 1879.

But this wasn’t just any Stella. Dubbed the Virgil Brand-Amon Carter-Ed Trompeter-Bob Simpson Quintuple Stella, the coin is the second-finest of just five known to exist one of which resides in the National Numismatic Collection at the Smithsonian Institution.

And as of this week, this Stella is a member of the rarified class of numismatic coins that have commanded seven figures in 2016 bringing in an incredible $1.6 million! When including a 17.5% buyers premium, the total price paid was $1.88 million.

Classified as a Judd-1643, the coin was certified as PR64 DCAM by PCGS and has seen significant price appreciation over the years.

Star motif replaced the eagle: Stella is the Latin word for star, and to elite coin collectors everywhere, the Stella has always been one of the most elusive and sought-after coins in U.S. numismatic history. Minted in 1879 and 1880, the Stella patterns were the product of a U.S. ambassadors plan for an American currency that would approximate the value of common European coinage of the time and facilitate Americas entry into the Latin Monetary Union. John A. Kasson proposed two metric gold coins and one goloid silver dollar. The two gold coins would be a $4 Stella and a $20 Quintuple Stella, each containing 10% silver. The silver dollar would contain 4% gold.

The Mint then went to work on creating pattern coins for Congress inspection. Because the bald eagle already adorned all domestic coins, the star was chosen as the motif for the United States go-to coin for international trade.

The $4 Stella exists in two versions: the Flowing Hair depiction of Miss Liberty, created by Mint Engraver Charles E. Barber; and the Coiled Hair design, created by Barbers assistant engraver, George T. Morgan. In the Flowing Hair version, Lady Liberty sports cascading locks and a headband etched with Liberty, in contrast to the restrained bun atop the Coiled Hairs design. The quintuple Stella reproduced the $20 Liberty Head design of the time on the obverse but added the legend “30G1.5S3.5C35GRAMS” in place of the encircling stars.

Some found their way to D.C. bordellos: Despite the Stella’s beautiful design, it never received the official authorization of Congress. The Stella has now joined an exclusive club of highly coveted collectible patterns that includes the 1856 Flying Eagle Cents, Gobrecht Dollars, and Wire Edge Indian Head Eagles.

Though these pattern pieces all proofs never entered circulation, several hundred were sold to congressmen at cost, eventually fueling a 19th-century sex scandal of sorts when numerous Stellas were spotted as jewelry pieces adorning the necks of madams operating bordellos in the District of Columbia. Many Stella survivors show the wear and tear of having been used as jewelry or pocket pieces.

But the Stella that sold for $1.6 million this week is not one of those damaged specimens its the cream of the crop and another real-time marketplace example proving that the best rare coins will almost always generate mega-prices for their lucky owners.

Do you think that rising interest rates are necessarily bad for gold? Think again. Listed below are five analyses that suggest gold prices can actually increase if the Federal Reserve lifts its federal funds rate this year.

Gross misinterpretation of the Feds April minutes have sent many investors into a tizzy, with stocks flirting once again with negative performance returns for 2016 before bouncing back this week.

But a review of recent and past analyses of golds performance during rising-rate environments suggests that the yellow metal can indeed increase in value along with rates. We saw the metal display unexpected resilience most recently this year, after the Fed raised rates in December and gold took off on a 20% run higher.

Falling behind the inflation curve: The conventional wisdom, of course, is that Fed tightening is bad for gold, mainly because higher U.S. rates can strengthen the dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding commodities, wrote Julian Jessop of Capital Economics, who is predicting $1,350 gold this year. Prices have indeed faltered this week in the wake of the hawkish FOMC minutes. However, there is surely more to say than this; after all, gold and silver prices actually rallied in the weeks and months after the Fed first raised rates last December.

The upshot is that gold can still rally especially if U.S. wage and price pressures continue to build. Indeed, even our forecasts assume that the Fed will continue raising rates only gradually and to a still-low level by past standards, which may fuel concerns that it is falling behind the curve on inflation.

Gold can rise after a lag: And Jessops analysis echoes July 2015 research from HSBC showing that gold advanced after the Fed lifted rates on four prior occasions to its December rate hike.

History shows that gold prices also fall leading into a rate hike and generally rise, though sometimes with a lag, after the first rate hike. Investors are apt to unload gold in anticipation of tightening monetary policies. This negative pressure is sustained until the Fed announces a rate hike, which then eases the negative sentiment towards the yellow metal. This explains the subsequent rallies in gold that occurred shortly after the Fed announced the first rate hike in the last four tightening cycles.

Negative correlation inconclusive: And going further back in time, The Secular Investor blogger studied golds behavior during rate increases (1972-74; 1977-80; 1980-81; 1983-84; 1986-89; 1993-95; the late 1990s; and 2004-06) and verified that hikes do not definitively serve as a coffin nail for bullion prices.

His findings? How can any serious person conclude that gold will, without any doubt, trade lower in the next interest rate cycle? he wrote. Statistically, we just proved that it was the case in only 2 of the 7 instances.

1980s high hit amid rocketing rates: And Ben Kramer-Miller of The Cheat Sheet also likes golds odds during rate-hike periods. A rising Fed funds rate has, more often than not, coincided with rising gold prices, he noted. This is exemplified by golds bull market in the 1970s. From 1971 through 1974, the Fed funds rate went from roughly 5% to 10%, during which time the price of gold rose from $35 per ounce to roughly $200 per ounce. The Fed funds rate fell back to 5%by 1975 as the price of gold fell by nearly 50%. The Fed funds rate soared from 1977, peaking at more than 20% in 1980, and during that time frame, gold reached a peak of $850 per ounce. If we look at the modern-day bull market, we similarly see strength in the gold price as interest rates rose from 2004 through 2007, and we saw gold hit its major $1,000 per ounce peak just as the Fed funds rate began to plummet.

Higher rates bearish for stocks, bonds: Finally, Adam Hamilton of Zeal Research has performed an exacting analysis of golds correlation with Fed tightening and concluded: Golds mighty secular bull of the 1970s, which greatly dwarfed the 2000s one, happened during a time of high and rising interest rates!And then golds subsequent multi-decade secular bear in the 1980s and 1990s unfolded during a long span of interest rates relentlessly falling on balance.Gold rallying with rising rates and slumping with falling rates?Thats not in the script.

Rising and higher interest rates are actually bullish for gold for one simple reason.And that is they are actually very bearish for stocks and bonds.Gold is an alternative asset that shines the brightest when the conventional asset classes are suffering.And nothing pummels stock and bond markets like rising interest rates.That is the sole reason the Fed has been so darned slow in normalizing interest rates!

April minutes no hike guarantee: Therefore, gold investors might have nothing to fear but fear itself if the Fed carries through with its threatened rate hike this year. And that remains a big IF. Investors may be misjudging how hawkish the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting really were, one Bloomberg analyst speculated at the start of a word-parsing exercise of the latest Fed minutes.

Indeed, contrarian economist Marc Faber is just one of numerous analysts who think the Fed is bluffing about a June rate hike. My view is that in June they will not move, that they will not increase rates. And that the market will begin to perceive that the Fed wants to support asset markets, which they have stated on numerous occasions before, and that gold, which from now on may correct about 5% or so, will start to move up again.

The bearish move in gold prices this week hasnt stopped one of the worlds biggest banks from raising its price targets.

Citi Research is predicting the yellow metal will average $1,280 in the current quarter, $1,300 in the July-September period, and $1,250 in the final three months of the year. Its full 2016 average price target is now $1,255 up from a late January estimate of $1,070.

The forecast is slightly counter-intuitive because it projects strength during the summer months, when prices are normally weaker, and a dip in the fourth quarter, normally a robust period for gold demand.

An opportune moment for buyers: Nonetheless, now is the time to invest in bullion, the bank said. While prices have fallen 3% (month to date) in May, we believe this may in fact prove to be an opportune moment to buy the dip, strategists wrote in a note issued Tuesday, titled Let the Sunshine in as Commodities Enter New Age of Aquarius.

In fact, the bank has become bullish on a large section of the commodities complex, especially oil. Commodities markets appear to have turned the corner and, led by the petroleum market, are accelerating their price recovery from the lows of the last year, they wrote.

Brexit could put breaks on Fed: While acknowledging the Federal Reserves hawkish tone in its April minutes, Citi nonetheless doesnt think the central bank will raise interest rates in June.

The risk of Brexit (U.K. exit from the European Union) is likely to complicate matters for U.S. policymakers, and we do not expect the Fed to move until after the June referendum, the note said. With the presidential election in November, the Fed likely can pull off only one rate hike this year, it added, effectively limiting the likelihood of a correction in gold prices for the next two quarters.

The new forecast contrasts with a note Monday in which Citi warned that gold could fall to $1,050 or even below $1,000 a level it hasnt seen since September 2009 if the ICE Dollar Index (DXY) returns to 100 or higher.

Of course, ongoing and future dollar strength is predicated upon one or more Fed rate hikes. Sure, the Fed could boost rates by 25 basis points at some point this year in order to give itself a cushion to cut again later, but it can only go so far. One and done at most, and that means the overall long-term picture for gold remains bullish.