Avoid These 4 Mistakes When Buying Coins As An Investment

Posted on 1 Comment

Individuals are turning to precious metal coin investments as a way to diversify their portfolios in today’s uncertain world. Gold and silver have posted double-digit returns in 2016 and are beating overall stock market performance. The metals markets have unique properties that have allowed individuals to build and store wealth for centuries.

In today’s online buying world, it does make a difference regarding who you buy from – and not all sellers have your best interests at heart. When it comes to buying coins as an investment avoid these four common mistakes.

Mistake #1: Don’t Buy Novelty Coins

Novelty coins are often sold on late-night infomercials or on a plethora of Internet sites. These can include commemorative medallions or coins with unusual shapes or kitschy appeal. At Blanchard, we believe that firms that sell novelty coins at high markups damage our industry reputation and prey on in the inexperience of most consumers. As a matter of policy, we dont sell these products because we don’t believe in their investment value. Anyone telling you differently is giving you bad advice and should be avoided.

Mistake #2 Don’t Buy a Broad Array of Coins

Stay focused on a few bullion products as you build your hard asset portfolio.Choose quality over quantity.At Blanchard, we only sell a small subset of bullion products available on the market. Why? We are in the business of helping serious investors and rare coin collectors build long-term wealth. Serious investors dont need a large variety of products to build a solid portfolio. Anything more than what we offer adds complexity and confusion when you go to sell your holdings.

Mistake #3 Don’t Overpay For Coins – Where You Shop Matters

We do not like the flea market sites that sell thousands of products. Most of the products at these sites are overpriced and it is easy for consumers to overpay for commodity bullion. At Blanchard, we stake our business on being honest, open and forthright with every client we serve, and we take great pride in our reputation for integrity. We have your best interests at heart. We partner with our clients to help them build a suitable hard asset bullion portfolio that fits with your risk appetite, and your long-term investment goals.

Mistake #4 Fail To Get Precious Metals Investment Advice

It is all too easy to “click and buy” in today’s Internet age. But, when it comes to building a solid coin portfolio that can truly offer you diversification and wealth building properties, we believe that most of our clients benefit by talking to one of our Portfolio Managers before they make any purchase.

The precious metals market is complicated and in constant flux. We follow it closely on a day-to-day basis. Getting a second opinion before you buy can dramatically improve your purchasing power and help you avoid making a bad purchase that you may regret.

Our advisors can also help educate you on topics such as setting up precious metals IRAs, inheritance issues, how to store and insure your coins, diversification and much more. If you simply have a question and aren’t ready to buy yet please give us a call – we are happy to help.

The Blanchard Difference

We are the premiere tangible assets advisor in the United States for serious investors and serious collectors. Blanchard is a family-owned company that has been in business for over 40 years. It is our intention to offer very competitive prices for our bullion products. If you find a cheaper price on the Internet, please let us know and we will aspire to match or beat that price. Your 100% satisfaction is paramount to us. Our Portfolio Managers are always available to help at 1-866-764-9135.

Does Jobs Data Mean The Economy Is Coming Up Roses?

Posted on

Last week’s release of the November unemployment rate on the surface may appear that the economy is coming up roses.

The news: The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% – the lowest reading in more than nine years.

Digging deeper into the details of the report, there are some trends emerging that warn of potential black clouds looming on the horizon for the economy.

Here are 4 key trends seen inside the details of the latest report:

  1. The unemployment rate fell primarily because people left the workforce.
  2. The trend in job growth is slowing.
  3. Wage growth slipped in November.
  4. Inflation is eating up a larger portion of consumer’s take home pay.

Here’s what you really need to know. The latest report revealed that about 200,000 people left the workforce, or simply gave up looking for jobs, which contributed to the sharp drop in the overall unemployment rate.

The hiring trend is slowing. Job growth averaged 180,000 per month this year. However, notably, over the last three months, it has averaged 176,000 jobs, compared with an average of 223,000 between June and August.

Also, according to the November employment report, retailers hired fewer seasonal workers in October and November 2016 than they did the last few years.

The slowdown in wages is a worrisome economic story. How much consumers take home each month matters for spending power. The good news of 178,000 new jobs created was offset by the average hourly earnings number which showed a drop of .1% month over month. Average hourly earnings fell 3 cents in the month, marking the first decline since December of last year.

Rising inflation, including higher gasoline prices are eating up a larger portion of their take-home pay.

What Does This Mean For Precious Metals?

Gold prices leapt to a higher close on Friday in the wake of the U.S. employment news. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates at its December meeting. But at this late point in the economic cycle, the odds suggest that the central bank will be unable to normalize its interest rate before the next recession hits. That leaves open the door to negative interest rates here in the U.S. just like they have in Europe and Japan. That is gold bullish over the longer-term.

Gold suffered a setback in a risk-off trade immediately following the election. The stock market may well have gotten ahead of itself by pricing in a lot of ‘good news’ for the economy that will have to come to fruition in 2017.

The recent pullback in gold prices offers long-term gold and silver investors an attractive buying opportunity.

Both the stock market and the current economic expansion phase are long in the tooth on a historical basis and cycles are poised to turn in 2017.

Protect Your Portfolio Now

Use this time to consult with one of the Blanchard portfolio managers to assess if your current asset allocation has properly protected your assets. Call us today at 1-866-764-9135.

About Blanchard

We are the premier tangible asset advisor in the United States for serious investors and collectors. We have a long history of providing individuals investors with consultation and investment guidance to help protect and build their hard-earning wealth. We believe that gold and silver bullion ownership is appropriate for all investors as a proven portfolio hedge. Metals are a non-correlated asset to stocks, which means when stocks fall metals increase in value.

Gold and Silver Coins: A Safe Haven Then and Now

Posted on

In the Final Days of World War II

It was April 1945 a month filled with historic events that began with the U.S. invasion of Okinawa. In Europe, the Allied forces captured Hanover Germany on April 10. The Nazi regime was toppling. On April 13, the Soviet troops captured Vienna, Austria. On April 18, the last of the German troops trapped on the Ruhr River surrendered. It was on May 7, when Germany surrendered unconditionally. V-E Day is declared victory in Europe on May 8.

The Gold and Silver Stash

American soldiers moving through eastern Germany came upon a small town called Plauen in late April. There was a post office in the town. A post office employee spoke of a safe inside the building. Unable to locate the key, U.S. engineers broke into the safe with explosives.

Those American soldiers discovered a hoard of gold and silver stashed by the Nazis in that post office that had served as a secret vault. The U.S. soldiers found 900 kilos of gold primarily in the form of coins and 70 kilos of silver, along with Swiss francs, Norwegian kroner and Dutch guilders.

Documents show that the stash was directly linked to SS chief Heinrich Himmler. Historians believe that the SS chief hid this valuable treasure in the small town as an escape fund for S.S. men who might seek to elude Allied justice after the end of the war. It is believed that the Reichsbank used the secret vault in the Plauen post office during the war to hide gold and money as Allied bombing raids obliterated buildings in Berlin.

The U.S. soldiers quickly moved the safe and its contents to Frankfurt for safekeeping as the town of Plauen would be under Russian control once the war ended, according to the famed Yalta agreement.

Today, the exact whereabouts of this gold find is unknown, although historians speculate that it was shipped to the U.S. as part of war reparations and could be housed today in Fort Knox or the New York Federal Reserve.

This somber tale of an exciting gold find is a reminder of the importance of physical gold and silver coins. Throughout history, gold and silver coins have represented a safe-haven of security. A vehicle to build and store wealth in a highly transportable form that you can have in your possession at all times.

Individual investors buy and hold gold and silver coins for many reasons. Safety and security of a portion of one’s assets is one compelling argument for diversification into physical gold. Gold has the power to store and grow wealth.

Getting Started

Blanchard and Company recommends that its clients allocate 10-15 percent of their investment portfolios to gold.We do recommend insuring your stored gold, which does cost a nominal amount of money. But having physical possession of your asset and having a piece of mind that no one can get to it but you makes it worth the relatively small cost.

Keeping gold in a home safe or in a safe deposit box is easy for most people as many investors already own or pay for these types of security services. Riders on insurance policies are usually inexpensive compared to the price of the policy.

Buy From the Best

It goes without saying that investors looking to establish a position in physical gold should always buy from a reputable tangible asset firm that has been in business for a long time. When the price of gold increases, fly-by-night companies can open to take advantage of people like they do in many other industries (such as construction and home repair companies after damaging storms).

Investors should do some research and find a firm that has a well-known and well-established reputation, like ours. We have a long history of providing individual investors with financial counsel and physical metals delivery. At Blanchard and Company we stand behind the authenticity and purity of the precious metals we sell.

Call us today at 1-866-827-4314 for a free and confidential consultation with a Blanchard portfolio manager about your individual investment goals.

 

Black Friday Alert: Hint, Your Wife Likes the Shiny Stuff

Posted on

Shoppers start your engines. This year’s Black Friday sales event is forecast to be bigger than ever, with shoppers expected to spend a record $3.05 billion.

Consumers Are Already In a Spending Mood

The final weeks of the presidential election season didn’t stop consumers from spending this year, with a surprise 0.8% increase in the October Retail Sales number. Sales soared as Americans bought everything from cars to clothes to construction materials and health care products. Retail sales have picked up strongly in recent months as amid strong consumer confidence, a firm labor market and a pick-up in wage growth.

The holiday spending season is important to retailers as economists estimate that as much as 25% of all personal spending occurs during the holiday shopping season. Beyond Black Friday, the entire season is expected to pull down big sales numbers. Total holiday sales inNovember and December, are forecast to climb 3.6 percentto$655.8 billion, according to National Retail Federation data.

Jewelry and Gold Price Trends

Gold prices tend to move up prior to the holidays, in part due to an increase in gold jewelry buying for gifts. But, this year a pullback has offered gold buyers a better price entry point.

The strong price gains in gold in 2016 (at one point over 20%) have put a crimp on cost-conscious gold jewelry buyers. Gold jewelry sales fell in the third quarter but still totaled 493 tons, according to the World Gold Council. That’s a lot of necklaces and bracelets.

Big Markets around the Globe Buy Gold Jewelry This Time of Year

Looking ahead, the World Gold Council projects a recovery in the jewelry sector in the fourth quarter. Strong seasonal buying trends are seen this time of year, supported by the festival and wedding season in India, the main holiday season in Western markets, and Chinese New Year.

The first half of 2016 saw the strongest level of US jewelry demand for seven years as the market continued its gradual recovery in the wake of the 20079 financial crisis, according to the World Gold Council.

Wondering What To Get Your Wife, Daughter or Mom?

Here are some key findings from a World Gold Council survey of surveyed 2,000 US females aged between 1865:

Fine jewelry is more likely to be received as a gift, often bought by a spouse or partner, more likely to be a planned purchase, and is more likely to be a high value transaction.

Gold resonates particularly well with those consumers looking to buy a piece of jewelry that they feel is associated with tradition or reminds them of a special moment in their life. A key strength of gold for these consumers is that it keeps an inherent emotional and financial value over time and can be passed to the next generation, the World Gold Council found.

Gift Ideas for Your Husband, Father or Son

Do you have a history buff in your family? Gold coins are a collectible, but also an investment. What a better gift for the man in your life than a rare coin. Choose one to match an important date in their or your lives. Consider commemorative coins, which are widely popular and reflect the rich cultures of numerous civilizations.

Ancient Greeks and Romans used commemorative coins for a variety of record-keeping purposes, everything from honoring important events to relaying the daily news.

Commemorative coins cultural influence continues today as they play a fundamental and distinctive role in the U.S. rare coins industry. In addition to aesthetic and monetary value, each coin is deeply embedded in our nations history. These reasons make commemorative coins a highly promising investment option.

Black Friday is just getting going. Pick your gifts wisely. Consider gifts that can help to bring your family closer through beauty, historical significance and can offer the opportunity to build and protect your wealth at the same time.

Unlike bullion coins that are bought in bulk, rare coins must be carefully chosen on a one-by-one basis, and this requires a highly trained eye to spot opportunities. Dont go it alone. Blanchard and company can help you find what you need with the highest levels of speed, confidence and personalized service. Call for a consultation or just to learn more today 1-800-764-9135.

Could 2017 Be The Year Of Inflation?

Posted on

In recent years, inflation in official government figures has been virtually non-existent. In fact, the Federal Reserve and other central bankers around the globe have been valiantly trying to stimulate inflation to no avail.

The perfect storm may be brewing for 2017 and money velocity — the speed at which money changes hands throughout the economy — may be finally about to kick into high gear.

Markets Are Already Signaling Potential Inflation Ahead

In the wake of the surprise election of President Trump, the yield on the U.S. Treasury note surged from 1.77% before the election to 2.27% just a few days after the results were in this represents a startling rise in interest rates in a very short period of time. Bond-holders are dumping Treasury notes (the price moves inverse to the yield) as they anticipate inflation on the horizon.

Where Could The Inflation Come From?

One of the signature proposals by President Trump includes a $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan to rebuild the country’s roads, bridges and even airports. This plan is intended to create jobs and stimulate growth. Wage growth is good except too much of a good thing can quickly turn bad. Economists are already warning about the potential for inflationary pressures to rise quickly.

The increase in inflation could arise from several areas, not only the infrastructure plans. Another key proposal from the President includes repealing parts or all of the regulations imposed on the banking sector in the wake of the global financial crisis. Bank lending is expected to pick up as regulations are eased, which could help to stimulate inflation and money velocity.

How Does Gold Fit Into This Puzzle?

Gold slid lower in the days after the election in a “risk-off” type of financial trade. Stocks rallied in euphoria that pro-growth policies could lie ahead, which removed short-term demand for gold.

The gold price quickly found support in the $1,215 per ounce zone as emerging market buyers jumped in to buy physical demand at the lower price point, notably from China.

The lower prices in gold were viewed as a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Western investors face a bevy of uncertainty ahead, including how the new Administration’s policies will truly impact the economy. Rising inflation remains a key risk, along with the potential for heightened geopolitical tensions. The President-elect has questioned at times the NATO allianceand also threatened to slap tariffs on China and potentially start a global trade war.

Gold has a solid track record as an inflation hedge, and an “insurance policy” against geo-political and economic uncertainties. The Chinese have rushed into the market this week at the lower prices points as they perceive gold around $1,225 an ounce as a bargain.

U.S. investors have the opportunity to build their hard asset allocation now at a better price point than three months ago. The 2016 uptrend in gold remains intact. It makes sense to use the price dip as a buying opportunity to diversify your portfolio against the uncertainty that lies ahead.

Call your Blanchard portfolio manager today to discuss the current outlook and options that may be right for you at 1-800-764-9135.

A Lasting Memory of a Historic Expo

Posted on

The glittering, triumphant Panama-Pacific International Exposition in 1915 was a monumental event. Officially thrown to celebrate the completion of the Panama Canal, the expo was also a chance for a rebuilt San Francisco to display its recovery from the devastating 1906 earthquake, one of Americas worst natural disasters.

 

Constructed over a 635-acre site, the expo showcased a number of marvels: a science museum called the Exploratorium, the Palace of Fine Arts, a five-acre working model of the Panama Canal that took two years to construct, a Ford assembly line that produced a new car every 10 minutes, transcontinental phone calls, and a recreation of the Dayton Flood. The original Sun-Maid Girl even took to the skies in a 10-minute hydroplane flight during which she showered the admiring crowd with raisins.

Perhaps the crowning piece was the Tower of Jewels, a 43-story tower that was then the tallest structure in the city. Over 100,000 pieces of crystal and polished glass hung on the tower, shimmering like gems in the sunshine. Because of the towers rainbow hues, the expo grounds came to be called The Jewel City. In all, construction cost over $25 million.

Over the nearly 10 months the expo was open, more than 18 million visitors from around the world came to see the fair. They walked down the broad promenades, took in the scientific and educational presentations, traveled to other countries in the international pavilions, and enjoyed exciting displays of racing, sports, art, and music. The cornucopia of sights was so vast that even over several visits, you couldn’t see it all.

When it was over, the Exposition Company faced the Herculean task of clearing out the site. The company sold every building, piece of equipment, and fixture that it could. Some smaller buildings were transported by boat to new locations. The Tower of Jewels was taken apart and sold piece by piece. Most of the fair buildings were built of plaster and chicken wire and were demolished once they had deteriorated. Today replicas of a few of the buildings, including the Palace of Fine Arts, remain.

Lasting Memory of a Historic Expo

The expos most lasting physical mementos are available today in a form you can own: commemorative coins. Congress authorized the San Francisco Mint to strike a series of five commemorative coins for the fair: a half dollar, gold dollar, a $2.50 coin (quarter eagle), an octagonal $50, and a round $50. The $2.50 coins were the first commemorative ever created in that denomination.

Charles Barber, the U.S. Mints chief engraver, created the $2.50 coins obverse design, featuring Columbia riding a hippocampus across the waters of the canal. Columbia, a female personification of the United States, has appeared in American poetry, paper currency, coinage, and statuary. The $2.50 coins incarnation of Columbia holds a caduceus, a symbol of medicine, to represent medicines success against yellow fever. The U.S. government and Army’s eradication of yellow fever in Panama allowed for the completion of the Panama Canal. The hippocampus is a mythological creature with the upper body of a horse and the lower body of a fish. PANAMA-PACIFIC EXPOSITION and 1915 appear on the obverse.

George Morgan, designer of the famous Morgan Dollar, created the reverse design: an eagle atop a Greek column. The eagle may refer to the necessity of the Panama Canal remaining open during World War I. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, E PLURIBUS UNUM, and 2 DOL appear on the reverse.

The unsold coins were melted, leaving only 6,749 extant. A Pan-Pac quarter eagle would make an excellent start to a commemorative collection or an addition to one already started. Blanchard is pleased to offer you this coin in Mint State 64 condition with a Certified Acceptance Corporation seal.

 

 

What’s Next for Gold?

Posted on

Investors have had several trading days to reorient themselves to the reality of a Trump presidency. Here’s where they now stand in the markets:

 

  • Stocks are up sharply, at least as far as the benchmark indexes are concerned. Most of the optimism among equity investors is fueled by the prospect of increased fiscal stimulus and federal government spending as Trump has proposed.
  • Bond yields have also spiked as traders anticipate higher inflation (also due to the potential fiscal stimulus pumping more money into the economy.)
  • Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December remain largely in place, favoring a quarter-point increase.
  • Gold prices are lower than they were before Election Day. Many of the market concerns about a Trump presidency appear to have evaporated and investors have renewed their appetite for risk.

Gold seems to be the biggest casualty in post-election trading. Prices are down over 5% from their election night peaks, although they remain up around 18% from the start of this year.

At times like these, it’s good to remember that the gold market can be quite volatile in the short term. Traders may look to score easy profits on the day-to-day price fluctuations in the precious metals markets. But investors should largely ignore these daily prices swings and use gold as part of a longer-term wealth preservation strategy.

The bigger economic picture remains supportive of gold prices for the purposes of preserving wealth over the long-term. Here are some reasons why:

Inflation will dent total returns–Stocks may continue to post strong post-election gains, but once inflation is factored into performance real returns may be much lower. This is an important consideration as inflation expectations grow. As a strong store of value, gold helps investors preserve the value of their wealth when inflation rises.

Geopolitical tensions remain unsettledNo matter which candidate emerged as the victor on Election Day, they both would have to face the persistent conflicts in the Middle East. With so many parties involved in the region, the risks of wider flare-ups breaking out remain high. These higher risks will help gold retain some of its attractiveness among anxious global investors.

Sustainable growth will continue to challengeThe U.S. may enjoy a boost in domestic economic activity if a government spending package does materialize, (which is still an open question.) But the problem of achieving long-term sustainable growth will continue to dog not only the U.S. but also many other advance economies as well. If growth still lags over the long term, investors may abandon riskier assets such as stocks.

Once investors fully absorb the newness of Trumps election victory, business-as-usual will likely return to the markets. However, uncertainty about the effectiveness of Trumps proposals and whether they’ll make it through Congress will probably keep the markets guessing, at least until they can ascertain how he will actually govern.

Over the long term, there remain qualified reasons for owning gold in your portfolio. A precious metals allocation still makes sense in order to maintain alignment with the goals of your wealth management plan.

Will President Trump Be Good For Gold?

Posted on

Donald Trump stunned the nation with his unexpected victory to become the 45th president of the United States. The news sent shock waves through international markets, which had largely priced in a Clinton victory and stocks initially collapsed to sharply lower levels.

In a massive reversal of sentiment on Wednesday, U.S. stocks closed sharply higher in a relief rally.

Markets hate surprises and the election of President Trump was a big one. Investors took solace in the fact that it was a decisive result and that there would be a smooth transition of power ahead. The stock market strengthened even more following Hillary Clinton’s concession speech on Wednesday, knowing there would not be a contested election.

In the days ahead, investors, Wall Street, and business owners will be attempting to decipher what a Trump presidency will really mean for the economy and the markets. There is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding what lies ahead for the economy under a Trump Presidency. Businesses and households may well delay or reduce spending, which could be an immediate drag on economic growth.

Gold will continue thrive in the current economic and political environment. Under President Trump, gold could rally up to $1,500 an ounce from its current $1,300 level.

This week’s vote means the Republicans will control the White House as well as the Senate and the House, which creates the opportunity to break the gridlock and implement policy changes. Mr. Trumps economic policy proposals include three major areas: large tax cuts, protectionist trade measures and immigration restrictions. Here is a snapshot on how a few of his proposals could affect gold.

Spending: Mr. Trump may attempt to push through his proposals which include increased spending on infrastructure, the military and veterans. These measures could stimulate the economy. What would this mean for gold? These policies would be inflationary and add to the deficit, both which support the current rising trend in gold and precious metals prices.

Taxes: Mr. Trump has proposed a tax cut package that will cut income taxes at the top-end tax rates for individuals, and also slashing the corporate tax rate significantly. Unfunded tax cuts would add to the deficit and strengthen gold.

Trade: Mr. Trump has threatened to pull out of or renegotiate NAFTA and several other trade alliances and deals. He has warned that he will label China a currency manipulator. Trump’s stated policies of protectionism would be negative for economic growth and divisive for the global economy. Increased global tensions and slower economic growth could result, which would support gold.

The U.S. dollar: Mr. Trump’s policies are expected to negatively impact the U.S. dollar, which trades inversely to gold. If the dollar declines, gold tends to rise. His comments on renegotiating U.S. debt held by foreigners may limit the attractiveness of bonds to foreign investors, and pressure the dollar lower.

There are many forces at play and a number of scenarios that could unfold. We expect that market volatility will likely increase as uncertainty on how these could play out weigh on sentiment in the weeks ahead. The stock market remains vulnerable on the downside.

As Mr. Trump prepares for his State of the Union address this January, the nation is bracing for change. The unexpected outcome of this election ushers in the potential for significant changes and a period of high economic uncertainty. Gold and precious metals will continue to thrive in this environment. Gold offer investors a safe-haven investment and a high-quality liquid investment that has acted as a store of value and a wealth building tool throughout history.

Talk to the experts: Blanchardhas helped more than 450,000 investors with expert consultation in the acquisition of bullion.

Surprising Election Result Fuels Market Uncertainty

Posted on

The day that was supposed to settle so many outstanding questions and anxieties about the future has arrived, and with it only more uncertainty. On this morning after Election Day, no one really knows what a Trump presidency will mean for the country, the economy or the financial markets. How will he govern? Can he handle the responsibilities of leadership on the global stage? Will he follow through on the promises he made throughout the campaign?

For many people associated with the financial markets, these questions only raise doubts about the future. If he is able to follow through on his proposals to cut taxes and increase government spending, the federal budget deficit is expected to grow. Redrawing trade agreements toward more protectionist policies will fall harder on the largest U.S. corporations who do much of their business beyond the national borders. This will of course weigh on stock values.

Prior to the election, a Trump presidency was projected to be good for gold. That may be a likely outcome, given all of the uncertainty that will accompany his arrival in the White House. As the leader of the worlds largest economy and greatest military force, Trump may challenge the long-established order of global alliances and cooperation among countries. But how much this order will actually change is clearly unknown at this point.

The immediate reaction in the global financial markets was shockin early Wednesday morning trading across Asian markets, equity market futures had plummeted and gold prices moved higher as the election results were announced. For many market analysts, it seems like Brexit all over again. That event may provide a good parallel for investorsmarkets will experience a snap reaction as investors absorb the news and re-align their expectations about the future, but eventually may revert to pre-election levels once emotion is washed out of the market.

There is a perception that geopolitical risks may escalate under a Trump presidency. These pervasive doubts and risks will work to keep investor anxieties high, which naturally benefits safe haven asset classes such as gold.

As we have stated many times over the past year, it is time to look at your overall portfolio and make sure that you have the right allocation of gold in order to protect your wealth during times of uncertainty.

The Blanchard Economic Report

Posted on

As any small business owner knows first-hand, the U.S. economic picture sees many challenges. While officially the U.S. economy has been expansion phase since 2009, the growth levels have not returned to the normal levels seen before the Great Recession and Financial Crisis hit in 2008.

The current environment remains extremely bullish for gold and other precious metals. Gold remains one of the best performing asset classes in 2016, up over 21%. Despite the strong gains, many on Wall Street believe this bull cycle in gold is just beginning with forecasts for higher prices after the election and in 2017 and beyond.

Here is a quick snapshot of the economic environment now.

1. Economic Growth: Since the recession ended in mid-2009 the U.S. economy has grown at about a 2% annual rate, making the current expansion the weakest on records back to 1949.

While the latest third quarter gross domestic product data surprised with a 2.9% reading a number of “special factors” such as a surge in soybean exports and a jump in inventory building helped boost the number. Economists say those special factors are transitory and unlike to repeat going forward.

For the year, overall growth is expected at around a 1.5% pace in 2016, which is growth in positive territory but not enough to generate wage growth or noteworthy inflation. Many businesses still don’t have the ability to raise prices on goods and services. Changing demographics, including Baby Boomers who spend less, along with massive debt overhang are two of the factors expected to weigh on growth in the years ahead. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects GDP to grow at around 2% annually through 2026.

Key takeaway: Slow growth is here to stay. That is bullish for gold as central bank officials will need to maintain historically easy monetary policy.

2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy: Wall Street and the financial markets are expecting a well-telegraphed interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its December meeting. There have been no interest rate hikes yet in 2016 and if the Fed pulls the trigger in December, it will still leave the federal funds rate in an extremely easy money position with rates only moving up to a 0.50-0.75% level.

Key takeaway: Interest rates have never been this low for this long in the United States. A return to a more “normal” interest rate environment with the funds rate around 3.0% or higher is unlikely even in 2017. Lower rates for longer – that is gold bullish.

3. Inflation: Official numbers that the Federal Reserve monitors show inflation at low levels. The official personal consumption expenditure (PCE) remains at 1.7% through September. However, these official inflation readings are failing to capture significant price increases that U.S. consumers face each day including significantly higher rent and housing prices, higher medical insurance and overall medical care costs.

There is lots of money still sloshing around in the system. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet remains bloated in the wake of the money-printing quantitative easing programs started in 2008. Consider this: it took the Fed about 100 years to swell the size of its balance sheet to $800 billion just before the global financial crisis. Then, it took only six years, from 2008 to 2014, to more than quintuple its balance sheet to its present level of over $4 trillion. At some point, if money velocity picks up, this money has the power to unleash debilitating inflation. This is gold bullish

4. Negative Interest rates: Nearly 500 million people currently live in countries that now have a negative interest rate environment, including Europe, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland. Many countries now show a negative interest rate on their government debt. Governments are experimenting with untested negative rates in a desperate attempt to stimulate economic growth. At the end of the day, many of the best minds on Wall Street are warning of unintended collateral damage from negative interest rates, which includes weakening of the banking system itself and its key mechanism for profitability. Key takeaway: This is extremely gold bullish.

5. Geopolitical uncertainties: Today in many corners of the globe there are a number of “hot spots” that can turn into a crisis at any time. In the larger picture, there is a power struggle going on between the West and the rising East. China, Russia and other large emerging market economies are demanding an equal role on the world stage as their economic power grows. Gold has proven to be a time honored safe-haven in times of political, economic strife and even war. The current situation is gold bullish.

There are many more on-going factors that provide a positive outlook for the gold market and other precious metals ahead. Investors in today’s world are looking for the safety and security of hard assets like gold. Throughout history, gold has acted as a currency, a safe-haven, a vehicle to store and growth wealth and a hedge against inflation. That remains true more than ever today.

Blanchard and Company recommends that its clients allocate 10-15 percent of their investment portfolios to physical gold and precious metals. Are your assets properly hedged and protected? Give us a call today at 1-866-764-9135 for an individualized portfolio assessment.