The Gold Bull Market Has Room to Run
Posted onGolds allure has been strong as of late. Prices for the precious metal are up 20% over the last year. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks and bonds have eked out only meager single-digit gains during the same period.
There are many signs indicating that the bull market for gold has plenty of room to run. The recent climb in gold prices was driven in part by economic uncertainty around the world, and terror threats in global hotspots.
There are, however, also good economic fundamentals behind golds strong performance. Demand for gold right now is as healthy as it has been for many years. Its a lesson straight from the pages of an Economics 101 textbook: Prices rise when demand increases.
Demand for gold surged by 21% in the first quarter of 2016, according to a World Gold Council report in May. That was the second-strongest quarter of demand growth for gold on record.
Much of this robust demand is coming from the investment markets. The World Gold Council also reported that investor demand for gold in Q1 of 2016 reached 617.6 tonnes nearly as much as the previous three quarters combined.
Over half of that demand is coming from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Inflows to gold ETFs reached a seven-year high in the first quarter. The last time investor interest in gold hit these levels was at the tail end of the global financial crisis and recession in 2009.
What factors are driving the demand for gold and creating favorable conditions for the gold bull market to continue?
The lingering uncertainty of Brexit: It is hard to say with any certainty how the United Kingdom and the European Union will fare in a post-Brexit world. Most economists have said leaving the EU will likely cause a slowdown in the UK economy over the short term. Only the severity of the looming recession is up for debate.
But the long-term consequences of the UK vote to leave the EU will be sorted out over the next few years. Much will depend on Britains ability to negotiate with its EU partners as the Brexit process continues. Thats leaving many investors with a sense of trepidation about investing in global markets.
Gold has benefited from ongoing currency fluctuations in the wake of Brexit. Many analysts in the foreign-exchange markets believe those swings will continue. That gives gold the potential to ride these favorable waves for some time to come.
Unrest on the global stage: Last months Brexit surprise was the headline event that bumped up gold prices. But other recent global events also played a part, including terror attacks in Orlando, Fla., and Nice, France, and a failed coup in Turkey (a major player in the gold market).
Global turmoil and threats of terrorism heighten investor concerns about the future. The increased perception of danger and uncertainty drives a flight to safety away from currency and equity markets and into the relative safe harbor of gold.
In light of recent events, it seems these extreme acts of violence will become part of the new norm. These heightened risks to security will continue to draw investors to gold.
Lack of confidence in global central banks: The Federal Reserve played a major role in rescuing the U.S. economy during the 2008 financial crisis. But saving the day came at a heavy cost: Bond yields fell to historically low levels, bond-market risk increased with the run-up in prices, and fixed-income investors found few options for cash flow at a positive real rate of return.
Now, global central banks are following the Feds playbook for jump-starting their own sluggish economies. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are doing brisk business in the bond market. As a consequence, yields in global bond markets are falling too.
Rates for 10-year German and Japanese government bond are negative. So are yields on 30-year Swiss government bonds.
These negative-interest-rate policies at global central banks havent had their intended effect yet. Meanwhile, global investors are running out of options for growth, so gold may keep its shiny luster while these central banks continue to fight their uphill battles.
The time remains right for gold.
Market momentum is with gold investors right now. The conditions that make gold attractive as an asset class slowing economic growth and geopolitical uncertainty are likely to be with us for the next few months, if not the next few years.
The recent price surge shouldnt deter investors from considering an increase or addition to their gold allocation. Theres still room for the gold bull market to run.
Gold Finds Support at $1,300
Posted onGold futures for August delivery declined on Friday by 0.67% to cap the second consecutive week of losses for the precious metal. As gold closed down on the day for Friday, the final price traded on the CME was $1,322.10, which is undeniably indicative of support above the $1,300 price-level.
Michael Armbruster, the co-founder at Altavest noted how it appears gold is finding support just above the $1,300 level just as the stock markets rally looks like it is getting tired. When the equity market eventually starts to pullback, he advised clients to look for gold to ignite again to the upside.
Until then, many analysts attribute the weekly decline to profit-taking and the closing out of bullish positions, especially after such an extended period of solid gains. Another possible, and arguably more likely, explanation for the recent decline in gold stems from easing global equity market fears. Throughout periods of low volatility, the demand for safe haven and risk-averse assets (like gold) diminishes, so declining prices are somewhat tacit.
Looking across the board, stocks are at record highs and volatility is nearing a record low, so if there is one takeaway from the overall market, its that there is simply no current fear amongst investors. And gold owners should see this as positive, since gold prices are, oddly, remaining strong despite a monumental decline in volatility in the wake of last months Brexit decision.
Furthermore, the July gold sell-off should not come as a complete surprise not only because of current low volatility, but also because of past events. Historically, gold has ritualistically sold- off for a few weeks throughout almost every July since the financial crisis of 2008. For July of 2014 and 2015, gold futures lost 4.97% and 8.83%, respectively.
Diminished liquidity as a result of increased legislature preventing banks from speculating on commodities, such as gold, likely contributes to the summer sell-offs, but the lack of current market fear and volatility seals the declining price deal.
Although gold prices have closed lower for two straight weeks, gold is still up roughly 25% year-to-date, which puts virtually every other asset class (like stocks and bonds) to shame.
In terms of recent market-moving events, the European Central Bank released an announcement last week regarding interest rates that was pretty vague and ambiguous as to when the next rate adjustment will occur. The tone and content of the message indicated that future rate hikes are by no means out of the realm of possibilities, so this could also have also contributed to golds decline.
With the historical aspect of July gold trading and current low volatility in equity markets, the subtle weekly decline for gold seems explicable. Going into the week of July 25th, the only potential gold-moving event is a Bank of Japan announcement on Thursday, but there are many more economic events to kick off the month of August that are likely to induce volatility and increase the desire for gold.
Want to learn more about investing in precious metals? We’ve got answers here.
Jobs Reports and Gold Explained
Posted onEvery month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases an employment situation report (commonly referred to as a jobs report) that tends to cause violent moves either up or down in equity markets around the world. Although this cluster of data mainly provides insight into the labor market, the implications are wide-ranging.
To break it down in a simple and logical manner, the monthly jobs reports gives market participants a vague idea of how the U.S. economy is performing and, obviously, provides insight into labor and wage trends. Investors, however, are not the only ones keeping a close eye on this employment data the Federal Reserve monitors it as well. Because savvy market participants know this, jobs reports lead directly to speculation in the marketplace about when/if the Federal Reserve will raise or lower interest rates in an attempt to control earning inflation and other economic staples.
To even the above-average and well-versed investor, all of this talk about wage inflation trends and interest rates can be understandably bewildering. Nevertheless, when its broken down into a few manageable pieces, the effects jobs reports have on virtually every market in the world, especially the gold market, become much easier to comprehend.
Specifically regarding the gold market with no superfluous analysis, the correlation between jobs reports and the price of gold is as follows:
Strong jobs report = possible higher interest rates = gold goes down.
Weak jobs report = possible lower or unchanged interest rates = gold goes up.
The reasoning behind gold going up or down is a tad more complex than it appears in the equation above, in part because the price movement depends on what a strong or weak jobs report really means. If the U.S. economy adds fewer jobs than expected, which would constitute a weak jobs report, then the Federal Reserve would theoretically be less likely to aggressively hike interest rates, because, according to the jobs report data, the economy is fragile and would not do well with higher fed. fund rates.
Conversely, if the U.S. economy adds more jobs than expected, it would indicate economic robustness. An interest rate hike would not be of detriment to the economy and, in fact, might be necessary to reach/control Federal Reserve inflation targets.
This is where the jobs report and gold discussion really starts to get interesting. Conventionally, high interest rates are not favorable to the price of gold, whereas low interest rates are seen as very favorable. The reasoning behind this is relatively simple. When it gets more expensive to borrow money because the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark borrowing rate, its nonsensical to pay more in interest to buy gold, which inherently pays nothing compared to interest-bearing instruments.
There is, however, a massive caveat to all of this analysis about gold and jobs reports. Over the short term and especially intra-day, jobs reports and interest rates do indeed affect the price of gold; but over the long term, the price of gold is influenced more by supply and demand, and other economic/world events, than by employment data.
Additionally, it is worth noting that gold could theoretically rally on a strong jobs report and sell off on a weak one (the opposite of what is expected), because the aforementioned conventional wisdom regarding jobs reports and gold is by no means a certainty. With that said, a negative correlation between jobs reports and gold certainly exists over the short term, but on a longer time horizon, the correlation seems spurious, and the future effect remains unknown, much like in any market.
In spite of this, it is still important to be informed about what a strong or weak jobs report will likely mean for a gold investment. By knowing this, investors, or anyone looking to purchase gold, can have a leg up on the rest of the market, and capitalize on the entry opportunities that arise from a strong jobs report.
Panama-Pacific gold coins among the most popular classic U.S. commemoratives
Posted onThe five-coin commemorative series minted in San Francisco for the 1915 Panama-Pacific Exposition remains one of the most beloved and distinctive sets in all of American numismatics.
The most-coveted members of the set are the two $50 gold pieces designed by Robert Aitken: one round, the other octagonal. Each depicts the goddess Minerva on the obverse and an erect owl on the reverse. However, the octagonal version takes the design a step further by encircling the both goddess and the owl with eight dolphins, which symbolize the ocean in homage to the opening of the Panama Canal that year.
Both $50 coins are gorgeous, but the eye-catching nature of the eight-sided specimen makes for a sight one cant soon forget.
At a recent sale in Florida, a round and an octagonal version each brought in big money. The round example certified at MS64 by NGC commanded $88,125, while its octagonal counterpart, graded at MS62 by NGC, sold for $58,750.
The higher price paid for the round version is a result of its higher grade as well as its rarity. Although a mintage of 1,500 for each design was ordered, only 645 octagonals were sold, while the round versions sales totaled 483, making it the scarcer coin. The rest were melted. One reason these coins werent more popular at the time was their price tag: $100, or twice the face value.
As of July 14, Blanchard and Company doesnt have $50 Pan-Pac commemoratives in stock, but it does have two of the other gold components of the five-coin set.
The first is the $2.50 piece designed by Charles E. Barber and George T. Morgan, certified at MS64 PCGS with a green CAC sticker. The obverse depicts the goddess Columbia wielding a caduceus and riding the mythological hippocampus, while the reverse shows an alert eagle with raised wings. Only 6,749 of these beauties were minted.
Also available is the gold dollar designed by Charles Keck, with this specimen sporting a high grade of MS66 from NGC. The obverse features the profile of a canal laborer facing left, while two dolphins encircle the ONE DOLLAR denomination on the reverse. Just 15,000 were produced for the exposition.
If youre looking to build a Pan-Pac set or collection of the classic U.S. gold commemoratives, youve got to have these pieces. The fifth member of this storied Pan-Pac set is the half dollar designed by Barber and Morgan. The obverse shows Columbia with outstretched arms scattering flowers supplied by a cherub, while the sun blazes in the background. An eagle with outstretched wings resting on a U.S. shield adorns the reverse. Stay tuned for its potential availability.
Cleaning your coin can kill your profit potential
Posted onBlanchard and Company Douglas LePre recently discussed the importance of toning in coins for numismatic collectors and investors.
The natural oxidation that occurs on coins, especially silver, can enhance their appearance and maximize their historical character with this naturally occurring patina. (Related to toning is the concept of the shipwreck effect, in which coins recovered from sunken vessels show signs of long-term immersion in saltwater.)
Some coin owners even go to the trouble of trying to add artificial toning to their pieces in an attempt to make a quick buck, Doug notes.
Conversely, some neophyte collectors who are unaware of the importance of toning actually make the huge mistake of cleaning their coins. And when one submits his or her coins for official grading by one of the major certification services like NGC and PCGS, the doctoring likely won’t go unnoticed.
Cleaning coins is a big no-no in numismatics and should never be attempted without first consulting an expert. Three recent news items in Coin World drive home this point.
An 1892-S Morgan Dollar that PCGS had designated as Altered Surfaces and Uncirculated Details sold earlier this year for $16,450. That sum is well below what other comparable Morgans have garnered in recent sales.
On the gold front, an 1857-S Liberty Double Eagle also received an Altered Surfaces and Uncirculated Details designation from PCGS. It sold for $4,230, a price that Coin World noted was higher than an About Uncirculated 58 example, but lower than a problem-free Mint State coin. And 1886 proof version of a Coronet Double Eagle, also with the Altered Surfaces tag, got $18,800 at a sale a price deemed affordable by Coin World but perhaps not optimal. (The flip side of such doctoring practices is that they make certain coins more easily obtainable for collectors on a budget, but that doesn’t do the sellers much good.)
The lesson here is: Don’t clean your coins. If you do, you’re at risk of reducing or even destroying the value of your investment by eliminating some of the very attributes that are sought by coin enthusiasts.
Let a phrase from the ancient Greek doctor Hippocrates (of Hippocratic Oath fame) serve as a guide for collectors: First, do no harm.
Silver Institute confirms metals investment-demand boom in 2016
Posted onThe World Gold Councils equivalent in the silver sector, The Silver Institute, just issued a bullish assessment of the white metals performance in the first half of 2016.
From Jan. 4 through July 11, silver has gained more than 44%, the institute noted, citing London Bullion Market Association price data.
Investment demand for silver has been increasing on almost every front. ETF holdings hit a record high of more than 662 million ounces, while net longs in the futures and options markets also are at all-time levels.
And in the physical market, coin sales are booming again in 2016, up 29% for the first quarter of this year, growing at at double digit paces in all the major regions of the world. The only down spot the institute found was a dropoff in the consumption of silver bars in the first half.
The institutes findings on silver have been borne out by data from the major sovereign mints around the world. Silver American Eagle sales from the U.S. Mint remain on a record sales pace, though demand has tailed off somewhat in recent weeks.
As of July 14, more than 26.945 million silver Eagles have been sold. Thats 10% more than were purchased at the same time in 2015, meaning that the Mint can still break the all-time sales record of 47 million set last year.
Meanwhile, Australias Perth Mint, with its silver Koala and Kangaroo coins, also enjoyed a blockbuster first half. Its sold more than 1 million ounces of silver coins for nine of the 10 past months, and its first-half sale totals of 7.636 million ounces easily topped last years figure of 2.81 million ounces.
Although the Royal Canadian Mints latest report hasnt yet been released, sales of its flagship silver Maple Leaf coins followed up on 2015s record year by setting a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2016.
Figures also are pending for the Austrian Mints 2016 sales of its silver Philharmonics, but its combined silver sales in 2015 hit 7.3 million ounces.
Although silver is potentially vulnerable to a pullback after its blistering run so far this year, its future looks bright thanks to its dual nature as a monetary metal and an industrial commodity.
I firmly believe we are on the cusp of an explosion in the silver price that will ultimately see silver trade at many multiples of the current $20 price, industry veteran John Embry recently observed. And another analyst even thinks that Americans and Canadians will likely face silver shortages in the future as investment demand continues to surge higher as the price skyrockets. The time to load up on silver is now, while the price is comfortable below its all-time high near $50.
4 reasons besides Brexit to buy gold and silver
Posted onWith stocks struggling to build on record gains, gold and silver reclaimed some lost ground Wednesday and remain close to two-year highs. Concerns over Brexit contagion are keeping the metals supported, but several other factors have surfaced this week that bode will for bullion prices this year.
Silver continues to attract plenty of spotlight thanks to its roughly 50% increase in 2016, which has outperformed golds almost 30% run. And the bulk of silvers current increase has occurred between June 1 and July 4, during which time the metal rose by 32% to top the psychologically important $21 level. Since the Brexit referendum on June 23, silver is up 17% versus golds 8% gain.
The gold-silver ratio has now fallen to about 66-to-1, down from the 83-to-1 difference hit in February. Should gold recover yet again and head for the $1,400 level as a number of analysts are now suggesting, then a falling [ratio] to 60 would suggest silver might be heading for the $23 level and up, wrote metals analyst Lawrie Williams.
Some see triple-digit silver: But even at 66-to-1, silver remains arguably undervalued compared with gold. We are mining today 9 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold, noted First Majestic CEO Keith Neumeyer, who sees the potential for triple-digit silver. Silver is way more rare than people actually think it is and the market is slowly waking up to that fact. I think the ratio should be trading at more of its natural ratio closer to 9 or 10.
Whether or not we eventually see triple-digit silver is unknown, but some other analysts and investment firms remain bullish. The real star of the show has been silver, Capital Economics wrote on July 1. We continue to expect silver to outperform gold over the next couple of years.
So does Michael Purves of Weeden & Co., who sees bullish potential in the gold-silver ratio as well. The extremes in this ratio reached during the gold and silver lows earlier this year have set the table for a substantial decline in the gold/silver ratio, which should result in disproportionate gains in silver, he wrote.
Regardless of which metal ultimately takes the prize this year, some new developments this past week could keep the bull run in both going. Chinas sagging economy and Brexit aftershocks are obvious bullish drivers for gold and silver, but here are four more:
Helicopter money is the new central-bank meme
Ex-Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke a proponent of helicopter money, which is just another name for massive deficit spending by governments in the form of infrastructure outlays and direct handouts to households visited Japan this week to discuss potential stimulus plans. Now current Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gave the tactic her blessing in an interview.
Were always assessing tools that we could use, she said. In the U.S. weve done quantitative easing and I think thats proven to be useful. So its my view that [helicopter money] would be sort of the next step if we ever found ourselves in a situation where we wanted to be more accommodative.
With central banks in the United Kingdom, Europe, Japan, and China all easing and devaluing their currencies, the U.S. Fed also is in no position to lift rates amid continuing post-Brexit uncertainty and historically weak U.S. growth levels.
U.S. presidential election heating up
The big political news of the past couple of weeks signals that the U.S. presidential election is now getting under way in earnest. Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will not be prosecuted for her email mismanagement, and her rival Bernie Sanders has now officially endorsed her, to the dismay of his rabid supporters. Meanwhile, Republican contender Donald Trump is surging in the polls, at least in key swing states, making the race too close to call.
And unfortunately, in a nation already harshly divided by controversial police shootings and the mass killings of five Dallas officers, the looming party conventions in Cleveland and Philadelphia could ratchet up those tensions even further. The FAA, for example, has already declared 34.5-mile no-fly zones over both convention sites. An already very hot summer could get even hotter if activists ranging from Black Lives Matter to disenchanted Sanders supporters disrupt either of the conventions.
Major investment banks are now warning that uncertainty from the elections is threatening to spill over into markets. UBS, for example, found that wealthy U.S. investors are holding record amounts of cash out of fear for their retirement accounts ahead of the Nov. 8 election. As campaign vitriol heats up even further, the volatility quotient is expected to rise. And as a result, the Fed is even more unlikely to raise interest rates ahead of the outcome.
South Sea China becoming geopolitical powder keg
Chinas military buildup in the South China Seas disputed Spratly Islands archipelago was dealt a blow by The Hague, which overruled Beijings claims to the contested waters. Nonetheless, China has vowed to continue flexing its muscles there with an air-defense zone, which puts it at odds with the Philippines and other nations with dibs on the area. The area increasingly is threatening to become a new military flashpoint between China and the U.S.
Renewed tensions there come on the heels of a NATO summit in Warsaw, Poland, and new warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin that the world is on the brink of a new war.
Worlds biggest gold buyers to keep buying
And in a long-term strategy to undercut the U.S. dollars dominance, both China and Russia remain key buyers of gold via their central banks. And most other central banks around the world are buying to diversify their currency holdings amid global devaluations. Central banks around the world have increased their gold reserves by 2.7% from a year earlier to about 32,800 tons, the Nikkei Asian Review reported, citing a World Gold Council study.
And because of zero and negative interest rates proliferating around the world, these mega-buyers of bullion will have all the more impetus to keep loading up. With rates having turned negative in most of Europe and Japan and likely to remain so for some time on Brexit woes, the opportunity cost of holding gold has all but disappeared, wrote Simona Gambarini of Capital Economics. In particular, we expect central banks from developing economies to be the main source of demand from the official sector in the future.
Stocks at record highs look vulnerable, Goldman warns in urging gold, cash
Posted onFueled by last weeks successful U.S. jobs report, stocks have roared ahead this week, led by the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, both of which hit brand-new record highs. Given the surge in risk-on assets, the pullback in gold prices was no surprise.
Still, the metal continues to show resiliency, trading well above the $1,300 level. Not too long ago, gold prices would have withered on prospects of higher stock prices, but not this time around; investors are thinking that the spate of monetary easing is likely to persist for some time to come, keeping both gold and equities fairly well supported, INTL FCStone analysts noted.
Key earnings season under way
Now that stocks have broken through to new highs, the questions investors must ask themselves include: Are the gains justified by the underlying economic fundamentals? And where do stocks go from here?
As the INTL FCStone analysts observed, low and negative interest rates continue to prop up the equities markets. But what about corporate earnings? Second-quarter results are only starting to be revealed, but for about the past year, U.S. corporations have been mired in an earnings recession. Although Alcoa just reported strong results, profits from S&P 500 companies are expected to drop by 5% for this quarter.
The depth and breadth of the current earnings slump is quite rare outside of an economic recession, said Russell Investments strategist Paul Eitelman. Indeed, the flattening of the yield curve continues to suggest conditions indicative of a slowing economy, if not a recession, according to experts such as Bill Gross of Janus.
A simple look at a chart of S&P 500 earnings versus the indexs overall performance shows a clear disconnect. Its pretty easy to conclude that either earnings dont matter anymore or stocks are in a bubble, observed Financial Sense analysts.
P/E ratios are ballooning
Even so-called safe and defensive stocks (such as utilities and others big dividend payers) are starting to look frothy, concluded JPMorgan analysts. This style is now up 74% relative to the market since the beginning of this cycle in 09, pushing its valuation to reach a new record high, said strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. Additionally, low volatility has become even more correlated to momentum, a vulnerable trade that has become increasingly crowded. This suggests low volatility may be in a bubble and subject to negative tail risk.
And price-to-earnings ratios for the overall S&P are suggesting bubble territory. The P/E ratios on both trailing and forward basis, at 18.2 times and 16.9 times earnings respectively, are well above five- and 10-year averages, MarketWatch reported, citing data from FactSet. Meanwhile, Nobel-winning economist Robert Shillers cyclically adjusted metric, called CAPE, is at its highest level since 2007.
In contrast, although gold has returned about 25% this year, its still well below the nominal high above $1,900 set in 2011. And at around $20.25, silver, which has outperformed the yellow metal this year, also is significantly below its record price of about $50. Therefore, the precious metals arguably have significant upside even if they undergo near-term corrections or consolidations.
U.S. bonds continue to attract investors because they offer positive yield, however low, in a world increasingly set by negative-yielding sovereign bonds. Gold remains an attractive alternative. Theres an 80% chance of making 10% in gold; the probability of a 10% gain on Treasuries is 20% at best”, noted DoubleLine Capitals Jeff Gundlach.
Goldman sees stock, bond selloffs
Because it sees the stock and bond markets as overly inflated and ripe for corrections, analysts from Wall Streets high-profile gold-bearish firm, Goldman Sachs, continue to surprise investors with their bullish forecasts for the metal.
The Brexit fallout has driven yield-chasing investors into U.S. assets such as stock and bonds and that joint rally has raised concerns about its viability, given that risk-on and risk-off assets shouldnt be moving in the same direction at once.
Therefore, Goldman analysts see the potential for blowback.
Markets have become very dovish relative to what central banks might deliver and against the current macro backdrop, they wrote. Bonds could sell off sharply as a result of central bank disappointment, positive inflation and data surprises and/or illiquidity, which would likely drive weakness in equities and other risky assets, at least initially.
Meanwhile, equities could sell off owing to negative growth surprises and with yields at all-time lows, bonds are unlikely to be good hedges. This leads to a lack of diversification and higher portfolio risk at a time when return potential is already limited.
Firm assumes defensive stance
As a result of these risks, Goldman is recommending traditional safety plays in not only gold but also cash. We remain defensive in our asset allocation and believe the positioning-driven recovery of risky assets, in particular for equities, post-Brexit is likely to fade, its analysts wrote.
Other analysts agree, noting that the roughly $12 trillion flood of negative-yielding bonds are upending market fundamentals by building up investment bubbles.
Ultimately, there will be a day of reckoning, MFS Investment Management chief economist Erik Weisman warned. When that will be remains very much to be seen.
Weisman said. Theres no doubt that there are and will continue to be unintended consequences, and the further we move away from something conventional into unconventional, the ratio of unintended consequences to intended consequences will rise.
In the end, the record levels reached this week in the major stock indexes can be attributed to unprecedented and ongoing central-bank easing and accommodation. What goes up eventually must fall down, and precious metals are there as the ultimate safety net for investors.
Citi shrugs off Brexit fears to turn bullish on gold, commodities
Posted onJust a few weeks after the United Kingdoms historic June 23 referendum, getting an accurate read on just how far the Brexits aftershocks will be felt remains a difficult task. However, one major investment bank thinks this monumental threat to the European Union is just another reason to buy commodities, especially oil and gold.
Make no mistake: Pain in being felt across the eurozone, with Barclays declaring Great Britain on the cusp of a recession that will begin in the second half of 2016 despite the Bank of England about to cut interest rates for the first time in seven years.
And the International Monetary Fund is partly citing Brexit in slashing Italys growth forecasts and warning of two decades of economic stagnation for Europes third-largest economy.
IMF sees negligible effects in U.S.
However, the IMF also thinks that Brexit could have negligible effects on the U.S. economy, which although mired in historically low GDP output in recent years remains one of the prettiest horses in the global glue factory. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, too, just minimized Brexits potential domestic impact in public comments.
Whether now is the time to minimize concerns over Brexit is unclear, but certainly the resulting global central-bank money printing to alleviate concerns and boost growth is one reason why Citigroup likes commodities.
Citi is especially bullish commodities for 2017, analysts wrote. The oil market is treading water for now, but the oil price overshot to the downside earlier this year and this is clearly setting the stage for a bullish end to the decade.
Citi economists see the damage to global growth from Brexit to be limited in extent and duration in 2016, while stronger growth from China and the U.S. should lift global growth for the rest of the year, they wrote.
Team lifts average price forecast
Some at the firm like black gold better than real gold, but that preference hasnt stopped Citi from raising its price forecasts for bullion. Its now lifted its 2016 target to an average price of $1,265 for the year, up 9% from 2015, partly because its expecting the Federal Reserve to launch no more than one rate hike this year and perhaps none in 2017.
Its more bullish, outlying scenarios call for gold to run as high as $1,400 to $1,425 in the second half of this year.
Now is not the time to fully discount Brexits possible after-effects, but Citis bullish take shows that gold doesnt necessarily need the fear of an EU disintegration and subsequent contagion to keep rising into 2017.
Brexit blowback means gold is key insurance, Blanchard CEO says in new podcast
Posted onBlanchard and Company’s recent analysis of the United Kingdoms June 23 Brexit referendum piqued the interest of senior MarketWatch columnist Chuck Jaffe, who invited Blanchard CEO David Beahm to appear on his MoneyLife podcast.
Jaffe apparently was intrigued by Blanchard’s comparison of the Brexit crisis to the Lehman Bros. collapse of 2008and the potential for this major stressor on the European Union to light a fire under gold prices.
The Lehman crisis definitely brings back bad memories for a lot of investors, Beahm told Jaffe in the July 8 program (starting around minute 42:00). What we feel at Blanchard is that there are a lot of glass balls that are up in the air. And this Brexit caught everybody off guard from the media reporting on the ground in the UK everybody thought that this was going to be something that was not going to happen. And it happened.
In addition to immediate and longer-term problems for the UK’s economy, Brexit could spread breakaway sentiment in other European nations unhappy with their EU memberships. Immediately thereafter, you started hearing other countries wanting to do the same referendum vote to exit the EU as well, Beahm said. And you start looking at down the road, if you have more than a couple more countries exit the EU, maybe the EU ceases to exist, maybe the euro ceases to exist. And when you start thinking that, that this may be a Lehman event that caught people off guard, that lasts for several years that investors need to prepare their portfolios for.
And both today and during the Lehman crisis, gold responded as a lifeboat for investors. Just like in 2008, gold acted just like it should have, Beahm said. It added added liquidity to the marketplace; people were able to liquidate it and get cash. And then once it settled down at $700, it went all the way up to $1,900. So we’ve seen gold over the last 30 days or so go up over $100, and we think its poised to continue that trend for the several more years, especially as some of these glass balls keep falling.
Beahm and Jaffe also discussed a range of other topics, including how much gold to allocate to a portfolio; diversification principles; investing in physical gold versus gold ETFs; and’silvers out-performance of gold so far in 2016.
Overall, the near- and longer-term picture for precious metals looks strong, Beahm noted, citing not only Brexit but also ongoing easy-money policies from central banks as well as the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election featuring presumed candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. I really don’t think we have any times of certainty anytime soon, and because of that, we feel that gold and silver are definitely assets that investors should have in their portfolio, just because of the storm that could be on the horizon, that’s headed this way, and as an insurance policy, its just prudent at this point, Beahm said.
We don’t know what exactly the long-term effects of Brexit will be, not to mention the other geopolitical and economic crises brewing across the globe. Therefore, investors need to worry about the return of their money, not necessarily the return on their money right now, in this environment, Beahm advised.