Retail Sales, ADP Report, Confidence Survey Reveals Economy Remains Sluggish

Gold climbed and stocks slumped as private ADP jobs report revealed accelerating job losses, a confidence survey showed a downturn in sentiment and new retail sales data disappointed. Gold hit a 10-day high following the news and stocks turned lower.

Digging Deeper into the Economic Outlook

Payroll processing firm ADP reported that job losses averaged 13,500 per week for the four weeks ending November 8, which pushed stocks lower as “risk-off” trading sentiment increased. The ADP report reveals bigger questions about how weak the U.S. labor market truly is.

Wall Street economists remain in catch up mode following the government shutdown on Oct. 1 that lasted to mid-November. Government statistics agencies are still compiling reports from several months ago, leaving investors and economists with an incomplete picture on the economy today.

Consumer Spending Grows, But Less Than Expected

Retail sales rose by 0.2% in September, the Commerce Department said. That fell short of Wall Street’s forecasts for a 0.3% rise. Americans pulled back on purchases in a number of categories that were affected by tariffs, including cars, electronics and clothing.

Also, the Conference Board just released its latest consumer confidence survey for November, which fell to 88.7 from 95.5 in October, again below consensus expectations for a 93.2 reading.

Another shutdown delayed report revealed that the producer price index showed goods and services moved higher in September. PPI rose 0.3% in September, following a 0.1% increase in August.

Putting It All Together

All in all, the new economic data reveals that heading into the holiday season, Americans see a job market losing steam, still-rising inflation, and falling consumer confidence, which is leading some people to rein in their spending.

Gold Is Rangebound in Pre-Holiday Trade

Since touching a record high above $4,300 an ounce in October, gold trade has turned consolidative and sideways. For the past two months, gold has traded in range between roughly $4,200 on the upside and $4,020/$4,000 on the downside. Dips have been short-lived as buyers entered the market to accumulate gold under the $4,020 level.

The long-term trend for gold points higher and the major fundamental drivers for uptrend remain intact. Central banks remain large buyers of physical gold, investors and funds are diversifying into precious metals to hedge against rising government debt levels, falling U.S. dollar values, still-high inflation and to protect portfolios against stock market volatility. Major Wall Street firms project a fresh climb to a new record high at $5,000 in 2026.

The Importance of Managing Risk In Your Portfolio

Given today’s heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, it’s time to consider an increase in allocation to physical gold and silver as a core portfolio risk-management tool. A higher strategic allocation to precious metals can help you preserve purchasing power, reduce portfolio volatility, and act as a vehicle to grow your wealth even when assets like stocks and bonds fall.

Beyond wealth preservation, the investment case for gold and silver extends to proven portfolio diversification benefits. Physical metals consistently deliver low correlation to major paper asset classes such as stocks and bonds. During market drawdowns triggered by geopolitical disruptions or stock market declines, gold in particular has historically demonstrated positive performance. Silver, with its hybrid industrial and monetary characteristics, offers both a defensive hedge and exposure to long-term manufacturing trends in renewable energy and electronics.

How to Safely Add Precious Metals to Your Portfolio

Consider increasing your allocation to gold and silver with physical bars and coins held with reputable custodians or in direct personal custody, rather than unbacked or highly leveraged paper substitutes.

How large should your precious metals allocation be? We can help tailor a position size appropriate for your personalized liquidity needs, risk tolerance, and existing exposure to real assets. If you have questions on how to best position your portfolio for safety and growth, please call Blanchard today. We stand ready to assist you in these uncertain times.