Which Way Will Gold Break Out Of Its Range? Fidelity Says Gold Could Hit $4,000

The lazy hot days of summer are upon us. Gold has settled into a sideways holding pattern, after climbing over 25% in the first half of the year. With hamburgers sizzling on the backyard barbeque grill, making portfolio moves might not be on the top of your to-do list. Consider this: taking action today to add physical gold to your portfolio gives you the opportunity to trade fewer dollars for more gold before the next up leg begins.

Fidelity joined Goldman Sachs with a forecast for gold to reach $4,000 an ounce. Fidelity pointed to expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar and more central bank gold buying as factors driving gold to new record highs ahead.

Fidelity fund managers noted that some funds had doubled their 5% allocation to gold, in line with moves that affluent gold investors are increasing their allocations to the precious metal also.

While the U.S. stock market has been unnerved by the sweeping shifts to global trade policy in recent weeks, warnings are rising that a sharp pullback in stocks or even a crash could lie ahead.

“I expect an 80% crash when this is over. I just don’t think this is it. This is a trap,” Mark Spitznagel is the founder and chief investment officer of hedge fund Universa Investments, told MarketWatch.

CNBC host Jim Cramer warns of ‘Black Monday’ market crash over Trump tariffs rivaling record 1987 collapse –New York Post

Cantor Fitzgerald warns of a market pullback as S&P 500 flashes overbought signal—Seeking Alpha

2 big warning signs a correction in stocks may be looming, according to Goldman Sachs—Business Insider

From Wall Street to Main Street Stressors Are Showing

As corporate America reports its latest batch of earnings, cracks are already showing in profits due to protectionist tariff impact. General Motors reported a $1.1 billion profit hit from the tariffs. GM said it earned $2.53 per share, down from $3.06 a year ago.

Dow Inc. reported that the chemical company reported its first quarterly loss in five years as tariff uncertainties pressured the business.

PayPal Holdings stock fell the most in six months after executives reported slower growth in payment volume that the company said was a result of U.S. tariff policy.

Shifting to Main Street, new reports show that even Americans with high incomes are falling behind on credit card and car payments. Delinquencies on credit card and auto loan debts from upper income Americans climbed nearly 20% in the past two years, VantageScore said.

As financial stress and growing debt extends to even top earners, that leaves the U.S. economy more vulnerable in the months ahead.

What’s more, the U.S. economy is already slowing. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at 1.9% in the first quarter of 2025, down from 2.9% in the final three months of 2024. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast predicts that growth will slow to around 1% in the second quarter.

Bottom Line

Corporate profits are weakening. The stock market is vulnerable to a correction. Protectionist U.S. tariff rates are now at their highest levels since the 1930’s. The economy is slowing.

Gold is trading quietly, sideways right now. Don’t let the warm summer breeze lull you into complacency. Take action to protect your wealth with an increased allocation to physical gold now. In a few weeks or months, today’s gold price will seem like a bargain. Don’t kick yourself for not buying more today. Get started and explore your physical gold options here.

Photo from Unsplash