The bears have been carping over the fact that Chinas March addition to its central-bank gold reserves is the smallest increase since Beijing began announcing updates last year.

The fact that Chinas officially reported gold holdings rose by only 0.5%, from 57.50 million ounces to 57.79 million ounces (or nearly 1,800 tons), therefore signals that demand there is slowing, the media would have us believe.

But anyone with an eye on the larger long-term trend can see through the smoke and mirrors of the gold bashers in the mainstream media.

China lies, says expert: West Shore Funds strategist Jim Rickards has summed up Chinas gold-buying practices on numerous occasions, most recently on Bloomberg TV.

The thing you have to understand about China is theyre the largest gold producer, so they have 450 tons (per year) of indigenous output, he said. So they dont have to import all the gold they want, and (yet) they are importing enormous amounts of gold.

The bottom line for Rickards? China lies about their gold holdings. You can look at Hong Kong exports and mining output as far greater than what the Chinese government says they have. So theres a lot going on thats not revealed.

Aiming for 3,000 more tons: In fact, Rickards argues that China is on course to buy an astronomical amount of gold in coming years. Chinas out to buy another 3,000 tons to reach parity with the U.S., Rickards speculated. It would be 10% of all the official gold in the world. But thats why they dont talk about it. If you were out to buy 3,000 tons, you wouldnt want anyone to know it because the price would go up. The United States has 8,000 tons; China has (between) 4,000 and 5,000 tons, Rickards added, implying that Chinas true bullion holdings are much higher than its officially reported tonnage. They need another 3,000 tons to have parity so when the system collapses theyll have a good seat at the table. Think of it as a poker game: You want a good pile of chips when you sit down at the table.

Some analysts believe the next financial crisis could lead to a reset of the global financial system, in which the dollar would cede ground to Chinas yuan currency (with its implied gold backing) and/or an increasing role for the IMF monetary unit known as the SDR, or Special Drawing Rights. Thus, a huge amount of gold reduces dollar exposure while also bolstering the Chinese yuan as an alternative.

Aggressively scouting for overseas mines: A recent Wall Street Journal article titled China goes prospecting for worlds gold mines bears out Rickards argument about Beijings subtle gold-acquisition strategy.

Chinese gold miners are aggressively scouting for overseas acquisitions, encouraged by historically low gold prices that could help them scoop up assets cheaply, the article noted. If cash-rich Chinese gold miners embark on an asset-buying spree, China could reduce its dependency on other international producers for supplies and increase its heft in global gold markets.

The CEO of Sprott Asset Management confirmed the trend in a comment for the story. China has five to six gold companies. I have been in touch with all of them, and they all have plans for increasing assets overseas, said Peter Grosskopf.

3^rd Chinese bank wins London role: Meanwhile, even as it builds up its massive Shanghai Gold Exchange by offering yuan-denominated contracts and inviting foreign bank to participate, its also jockeying for an increasing role in the Wests markets.

The Intercontinental Exchange, one of the largest exchange operators in the world, has just announced that a third Chinese bank the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has been approved for a role is helping set the global benchmark gold price in London, otherwise known as the LBMA Gold Price.

We welcome ICBCs participation in the LBMA Gold Price. ICBC brings the total to 13 direct participants, a quarter of which are Chinese firms, said ICE President Finbarr Hutcheson. The continued growth and interest of firms to become direct participants demonstrates the global significance of the LBMA Gold Price benchmark and the importance of the auction as the key point of liquidity for physical spot gold.

I am very pleased to welcome the third Chinese bank to join as a direct participant in the auction process, added the London Bullion Market Association s chief executive, Ruth Crowell. This takes the total number of participants to 13, seven more than when the LBMA Gold Price was launched on the 20 March 2015. This demonstrates the international appeal and liquidity of the auction.

Buying an awful lot of gold: Thus, Chinas role in setting prices continues to grow. From going straight to the source of overseas gold mines through its state-owned firms, while gaining a foothold among Londons gold market makers, Beijing isnt turning its back on the yellow metal, no matter what you may have been told by the mainstream media.

Kenneth Hoffman, Bloombergs expert on precious metals, also doesnt buy into the anti-gold propaganda. Right now gold has everything at its back, he recently noted. Whats been holding gold in there and then really maddening the bears is there has been a bid for gold out of China. The Chinese love gold, theyve been buying it like crazy, and theyve been constantly in the market. Particularly every time gold has had a leg back, the Chinese always step in and buy an awful lot.

Now that gold has experienced its best single-quarter performance in three decades, the question remains: How long can bullion keep gaining?

In a new report titled Gold outshines the market in Q1 2016, the World Gold Council is bullish on the second quarter. We may be entering a new bull market for gold, it wrote.

Five factors helped drive gold to a 17% advance in the first quarter that beat all other major asset classes, the WGC notes:

1. concern about economic growth and financial stability in emerging markets;
2. a pause in the dollars rise;
3. the increasing use of negative interest rates;
4. strong investment demand; and
5. momentum.

Those factors should remain in place, the WGC said. And with U.S. Mint gold-coin sales, surging near-record inflows into gold ETFs, and a huge increase net-long futures positions on the Comex, the council is predicting increasing investment from both the retail and the institutional (particularly central-bank) sectors.

If gold can sustain its momentum for a second straight quarter, it should have the wind at its back and make the case for a renewed bull market in 2016. The metals roughly 52-month bearish trend since the price peaked in September 2011 has lasted about as long as previous bear markets in gold, the council noted.

But even more importantly, history also shows that two consecutive quarters of strong returns have typically resulted in a more sustained rally. So far, we have had one very strong quarter. But inflows into gold look, to us, set to remain robust in second quarter, as the current macroeconomic environment remains supportive for both investment and central bank demand. The WGC also noted the potential for the next financial crisis to spill over into interconnected global markets, thus increasing golds appeal going forward, as well as the preponderance of negative rates in major economies to drive investors into alternative investments.

Therefore, based on the World Gold Councils analysis of golds first-quarter resurgence, the answer to the question of whether gold could seal the deal on two winning quarters in a row is a resounding yes. Time will tell.

Perhaps it was the Federal Reserves downgrade of first-quarter GDP to an anemic 0.1%. Or maybe it was news that Fed chief Janet Yellen was holding an unscheduled meeting with President Barack Obama. Or maybe it was investor jitters ahead of the most pessimistic corporate earnings season in years.

Whatever the driver, gold rose to its highest level in about three weeks Monday, nearly touching $1,260, while silver also surged, making a run toward the psychologically key $16 level.

Certainly, fading expectations of a hawkish Fed have helped keep gold buoyed. No one is expecting rates to return to historical norms anytime soon. Former Fed chief Ben Bernanke himself just published a blog post advocating the logic of helicopter money as a potential stimulative tool. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund came out once again in support of negative interest rates, and its expected to downgrade its forecasts for global growth this Tuesday.

Add to these drivers the fact that a widely watched Fear Barometer produced by Credit Suisse just hit a new high, and its no wonder that RBC Capital has joined the ranks of firms now upgrading gold-price targets for the coming months.

Thank partly to expectations of just a single Fed rate hike this year, RBC has lifted its 2016 average gold price by a whopping 9%, to $1,250 up from $1,150. Likewise, its 2017 average price has now increased by 8%, from $1,200 to $1,300. Its longer-term target also rose by 4% to $1,300, up from $1,250.

And although its silver target for 2016 is unchanged, its 2017 price is now $16.50, while its 2018 forecast now calls for $17.50.

A more dovish posture from the Fed, declining real rates and improving fundamental demand for physical gold have lead to our more positive outlook for gold, RBC analysts wrote. For the balance of 2016 we expect gold to trade in a broad $1,200/oz. to $1,300/oz. range with the gold price improving over the course of the year. There are a number of positive demand catalysts, including steady fundamental demand from China and India, systematic central bank purchases, and U.S. inflows into the physical gold ETFs. This later trend is reminiscent of the fundamental investment demand observed from 2005 to 2007.

The surge of renewed interest in gold-linked ETFs has marked a sea change for the yellow metal in 2016, precious-metals analyst Steve St. Angelo confirmed in a recent post.

After years of net outflows from gold ETFs, this changed in a big way in Q1 2016, he noted, when inflows surged to 363 metric tons for the second highest quarterly build of Gold ETFs & Funds in history, right after 2009.

The reason for the inflows? Investors are becoming increasingly worried about the stock markets and are looking for safety elsewhere, St. Angelo wrote.

But investors seeking a safe haven in gold should not confuse gold ETFs as bona-fide substitutes for physical gold ownership that centers on bullion bars, coins, and numismatic rarities.

Digital wealth can be wiped out: Gold expert Jim Rickards is making just that point in a round of media appearances to support his new book titled The New Case for Gold.

For Rickards, the rise in computer hacking as practiced by lone wolves and well as state-supported agents is the newest and best reason to own physical gold.

I run into billionaires and say, What do you have? And they say, I have stock and bonds, and I say, No, you dont. You have electrons, Rickards told Bloomberg TV. Its all digital wealth. This can all be wiped out by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and Syria and North Korea, Iran, other countries.

Bangladesh robbed of $100 million: As an example of the vulnerability of this digital wealth, Rickards cited the recent cybertheft of about $100 million from the nation of Bangladesh, which was storing some of its wealth at the Federal Reserve, arguably the most secure bank in the world. If a sovereign nation cant depend on the Fed to safeguard its money, then how can rank-and-file citizens expect their digital wealth to be protected?

ETF gold often isnt really there: And tackling the subject of ETFs in particular, Rickards argued, You dont want ETFs. Paper gold is paper. An ETF is not gold. When you buy an ETF, its like buying a share of stock on the New York Stock Exchange. It can be digitally hacked. They shut down the Stock Exchange. People say that would never happen. The New York Stock Exchange was closed for five months from July to December 1914. It closed in Hurricane Sandy. It closed after 9/11. It closes every weekend. [A gold ETF is] a share you have to buy it and sell it. But you dont own the gold and youre not going to get the gold. You have a Comex gold futures [contract]. If all the longs took for delivery, [the ETF operators] would terminate the contract; they would basically cash-settle it because they only have about 1% of the gold relative to the open interest.

So all these paper-gold contracts, they give you price exposure when you dont need it, and theyre going to terminate you when you want it the most, thats when theyre going to terminate you and youre not going to get the gold.

If youre investing in gold for the long term and to shield your wealth from extreme events, then your core holding should be in physical bullion, not gold ETFs alone. Gold ETFs excel as trading vehicles that can track the moving price of the commodity, but as an insurance policy, they fall short in delivering absolute peace of mind. Physical bullion first, and everything else comes after!

In terms of headline-grabbing seven-figure sales, the rare coin market has been relatively quiet since the third sale of the D. Brent Pogue Collection in February, which saw a 1793 Chain Cent almost top the $1 million mark.

Even Blanchard and Company senior portfolio director Douglas LePre didn’t see much to buy at the American Numismatic Associations National Money Show in March. And another coin dealer lamented the lack of available top-quality inventory in an April article titled “Why can’t I find coins to buy at a coin show?”

However, some coin sales are making noise. At a recent show in Baltimore, at least three coins topped the six-figure mark.

A 1795 Draped Bust Dollar certified at MS63+ PCGS grabbed $117,500. And an 1808 Capped Bust $2.50 gold piece certified at MS61 PCGS brought in $223,250. And finally, a 1799 Capped Bust $10 gold coin, graded at MS66 PCGS with green CAC sticker, made a serious run at the half-million mark by hitting $493,500.

However, the best way to get an inside line to the most coveted, rarest, and most highly graded coins is not by attending shows, but rather establishing a relationship with Blanchard and Company‘s knowledgeable investment professionals. Thanks to our close collaboration with renowned numismatist and CAC founder John Albanese, Blanchard can offer its clients the top coins they’re looking for with a simple phone call alerting them of new inventory. Call us today to establish a productive and profitable relationship with Blanchard’s experts for all your numismatic needs.

Gold once again defied the bears by bouncing back Tuesday on new signs that the U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of a recession.

An early slide in oil prices also helped pressure stocks and sparked fresh flights into gold, especially after Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen confirmed last week that earnings expectations have declined.

Investors are taking off riskier assets in the S&P 500 and other equities, and looking to come back into safety like gold, RJO Futures strategist Phil Streible told Bloomberg. Gold looks like a nice place to park some money.

Up more than 1%, gold was trading near $1,228 by early afternoon, while silver also had gained about 1.3% to hit $15.06.

Trade deficit helps kill GDP: The catalyst for renewed recession fears in the U.S. was the trade deficit for February, which rose to six-month highs, hitting $47.1 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

As a result of that widening deficit, U.S. GDP estimates took another hit. The Atlanta Federal Reserve slashed its growth forecast from 0.7% to 0.4%, citing the deficit as well as yesterday morning’s light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the manufacturing report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Thus, growth is inching closer toward negativity. A separate CNBC/Moody’s Analytics measure put growth at just a slightly better 0.5%, but the network conceded that given the average, and substantial, revisions to government GDP data, that 0.5% could easily turn into a negative number.

Recession never appears obvious: To those who would say there is no evidence of a current recession, Lance Roberts of RealInvestmentAdvice.com made the observation that on numerous prior occasions in U.S. history, growth looked positive just before the official downturn occurred.

Robert cited these figures:

January, 1980: 1.43%
July, 1981: 4.39%
July, 1990: 1.73%
March, 2001: 2.30%
December, 2007: 1.87%

Each of the dates above show the growth rate of the economy immediately prior to the onset of a recession, he wrote. You will remember that during the entirety of 2007, the majority of the media, analyst and economic community were proclaiming continued economic growth into the foreseeable future as there was no sign of recession.

Risks increasing, IMF says: Although International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde denied Tuesday that the world is on the verge of another financial crisis, she took the opportunity to lament the global slowdown in growth.

We have growth; we are not in a crisis, she said in Germany. The not-so-good news is that the recovery remains too slow, too fragile, and risks to its durability are increasing.

The outlook is clouded by weak growth, no new jobs, no high inflation, still high debt all those things that should be low and that are high, she added.

Lagarde seemed to indicate that more potential money printing is the answer, praising the effectiveness of negative interest rates in some struggling economies. We see the recent introduction of negative interest rates by the ECB and Bank of Japan though not without side effects that warrant vigilance as net positives in current circumstances, she said.

Gold to $1,350, says analyst: Negative rates, particularly if they spread to even more countries, are great news for hard assets like gold and silver bullion and rare coins. Real assets such as land, property, commodities especially precious metals and collectibles would be favored, noted Satyajit Das.

Given the global growth malaise, its hard to imagine interest rates rising significantly anywhere soon. George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors recently addressed the pullback in the yellow metal, saying now is the time to stick with gold. Its quite possible that its heading to $1,350, he said.

Im not necessarily convinced that were necessarily going to get another pullback to $1,200 or below, he said of gold. Weve already had a little pullback from what, the $1,270 area was the best we hit in the first quarter. Weve had a decent pullback from that. Frankly, I dont think I would risk waiting (to buy). The dollar is looking a little stronger now, but its not looking like the monolith that it had been for the last four or five years and that had been putting pressure on gold. Similarly with equities; I know theyre back and positive territory for the first quarter, but theyre still looking very volatile compared to where they were. Nobody is talking about 10%-15% growth in equities either. So I think thats a pretty favorable climate for gold.

Russia solidified its status as the biggest buyer of gold among the worlds central banks with a 356,000-oz. purchase of bullion in February, according to the business daily Vedomosti.

And Moscows massive bet on the yellow metal has paid off: Golds biggest quarterly surge since 1986 has all but erased losses the Bank of Russia suffered by mounting a rescue of the ruble more than a year ago, Bloomberg reported. Policy makers have instead used 13 months of gold purchases to take reserves over $380 billion for the first time since January 2015.

Russias purchases are all part of an ongoing trend in which central banks have amassed the second-highest annual total of gold bullion since the end of the gold standard, the Financial Times reported.

The newspaper was summarizing the findings of the latest annual Gold Survey from precious-metals analytical firm GFMS, which calculated that net purchases by central banks in 2015 hit 483 metric tons. Russia alone was responsible for 206 tons as it looks to diversify away from the U.S. dollar due to tensions with the West.

Meanwhile, China added 104 tons of its own in the second half of 2015. Russia and China are real standouts, GFMS analyst Ross Strachan noted.

The tide turned around 2010 thats when the roughly two-decade trend of central banks selling gold reversed and those same institutions became net buyers as a means of protecting themselves against rampant money printing by the Federal Reserve and other top banks.

The central-bank buying trend shows no sign of abating and should continue to offer support to the gold price.