Gold trades higher, stocks sink after Fed meeting

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2024 Ushers In New Cycle From Fed Fed

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the 5.25-5.50% range on Wednesday, as expected. The big news out of today’s Fed meeting? The central bankers confirmed widespread expectations that interest rate cuts would be seen in 2024. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said rate cuts were likely “at some point this year.”Gold traded higher after the Fed meeting. Meanwhile, stocks fell across the board, in a sea of red as the major stock averages, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Index and the Russel 2000 all showed losses on the day. U.S. Treasury bond prices also fell.Stocks skidded even lower during the Fed’s post-meeting press conference as Powell warned: “We still have ways to go on achieving a soft landing” referring to uncertainty about the economy ahead. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 were both down more than 1%.Timing of Rate Cuts are UncertainHowever, with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank made no promises on the exact timing of interest rate cuts. “The committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” the Fed’s statement said.The most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflation remains higher than the Fed would like, at a 3.4% annual rate.A key concern for Fed policymakers is that inflation could settle in and stabilize at a rate above the Fed’s desired 2% target rate. While inflation has come down from its 9%+ peak, getting the consumer price increases down to the 2% mark could be challenging, as economists have warned for months.Gold Attracts Fresh Safe Haven BuyingInvestors turned to gold Wednesday afternoon, as fresh safe-haven buying boosted the precious metal higher, while stocks and bonds fell. Physical demand for gold has been strong in recent months as gold climbed from its October low at $1,822.70 to above the $2,000 level currently.Fed interest rate cuts are expected to continue to boost gold prices higher throughout the year. Indeed, many Wall Street firms forecast gold will hit all time gold for 2024.A new cycle for the Fed begins, which brings the value of gold into strong focus. For thousands of years, gold has served as a store of value, a tangible asset to preserve and grow wealth – and that role has taken on new importance in our economy today as inflation continues to erode the value of paper money. Is it time for you to trade some of your paper money for gold? Call your Blanchard portfolio manager today if you have questions about where the economy is headed and what it could mean for your wealth. We’re here to help.

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The 2024 U.S. Economic Outlook and What It Means for Gold

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Looking back, 2023 may well be remembered for the recession that never happened. But, looking forward into 2024, what is the economic forecast for the coming year and what could it mean for gold?Economic outlook 2024

Many hope that 2024 will be the year of the “soft landing” for the U.S. economy. Just like Goldilocks and her porridge a soft landing would mean the Federal Reserve handles inflation and interest rates “just right”—and the economy emerges not too hot and not too cold. The Fed is walking a tightrope and needs to thread a needle to succeed. Let’s explore some of the dynamics at play.

The Consumer Makes the U.S. Economy Go Round

When you buy a home, the mantra in real estate is location, location, location. When it comes to the U.S. economy, the consumer is the primary engine for growth. After all, consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Yet…

Americans Take on More Debt

While the economy continued to grow and Americans kept buying in 2023, they did so using borrowed money. In the back half of 2023, the U.S. personal savings rate fell from 4.9% to 3.8% by end of the year.

So, as Americans saved less, they continued spending, and racked up more credit card debt, which climbed above $1 trillion—all all-time record high in 2023. While the spending keeps the economy growing for now, Americans are seeing their unpaid bills pile up, and they will eventually face a reckoning.

Inflation Is Lower: But the Fed’s 2% Target May Remain Elusive

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) closed out 2023 with a 3.4% annual increase, which marks progress from the Dec. 2022 CPI reading at 6.5%. The road to target 2% inflation has been a long and bumpy ride for the Fed, and the journey isn’t over yet. The so-called “last mile” of the inflation fight could be the hardest—returning to the 2% level—especially with interest rate cuts in the forecast for this year.

Slowing Growth

Wells Fargo has removed a recession forecast from its 2024 outlook, but nonetheless, economists there estimate the probability of a U.S. recession remains at roughly 40%.

J.P. Morgan economists forecast that U.S. growth will slow to 0.5% by the second quarter of 2024, which will force the Fed’s hands to begin cutting interest rates. The reasons? The impact of monetary policy (high interest rates) will take a bigger toll, and the post-pandemic tailwinds will fade, they say.

Interest Rate Cuts Ahead

The slowing U.S. growth will force the Fed’s hands to lower interest rates, even though inflation still remains above target. The central bank will begin to slash interest rates to help prevent a potential recession.

By how much and when? Wells Fargo projects that the Fed will cut its target range by 125 basis points by the end of 2024 and by a total of 225 bps by the end of 2025. The firm expects the first rate cut of the easing cycle will occur at the May 1 Fed meeting.

The 2024 Washington Wildcard

Last but not least, looming on the horizon later this year, is the 2024 November presidential election. A contentious battle for the White House is already heating up, and Americans can expect an advertising blitz from both parties. In the midst of this, the divided government could result in a shutdown. Other key policy risks lie the U.S. deficit, which continues to expand and government spending, which will keep markets uncertain and demand for gold high.

Gold Poised for More Record Prices in 2024

Gold was one of the top performing asset classes in 2023, climbing 14.6% on the year. Gold’s performance beat other commodities, bonds, cash, and emerging stocks. The key drivers for the strong gold performance last year included persistent central bank buying, robust retail demand, and increased geopolitical risk which drove fresh safe-haven buying of the metal.

Looking into 2024, gold is expected to benefit from falling U.S. interest rates, slowing U.S. growth and a weaker U.S. dollar. Economic and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to keep demand for gold high in the year ahead, as investors trust in the precious metal’s ability to act as a reliable store of value and protect wealth. Its low correlation to other asset classes like the stock market means gold can act as insurance during down stock markets and other geopolitical events and crises.

How high can gold climb? J.P. Morgan forecasts new record highs for gold, with prices reaching $2,300 an ounce by 2025. Other firms agree that fresh gains are ahead for gold. UBS strategists predict that gold prices could close out 2024 as much as 10% above late January price levels on the back of potential interest rate cuts. “Ongoing macro and elevated geopolitical risks continue to justify holding exposure to gold for hedging and diversification purposes, in our view,” UBS said.

Are your finances prepared for what may lie ahead? Call Blanchard today for a personalized portfolio review and take action to protect and grow your assets in the year ahead.

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Coin Investment Psychology Explained

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While investment may be all about making a profit, there’s a lot more to it than numbers. In fact, some would argue that the psychology of investing is even more pivotal to success than figures. This piece will explore basic coin investment psychology and arm you with the best tips for making lucrative investments. Read on to learn about:

  • The concept of investor psychology.
  • The emotional factors that commonly affect investment decisions.
  • The best place to buy bullion for investment online.

To delve deeper into our topic, watch this interesting video about the role of human psychology in investing:

What is the psychology of investment all about?

Investor psychology is a branch of behavioral finance that studies the emotional and cognitive factors that influence the decision-making process of investors. It supports that market decisions are not always rational. Instead, they are often driven by a complex interplay of sentiments and psychological heuristics.

The science of investor psychology examines how human emotions like fear, greed, and overconfidence, coupled with cognitive biases, impact investment choices. It also explores phenomena such as herd behavior and loss aversion, shedding light on how these subconscious inclinations can lead to market bubbles or crashes.

By understanding and addressing the psychological aspects of investment, individuals can make more informed, less impulsive decisions, and potentially enhance their financial well-being in an unpredictable financial landscape.

Emotional investment: psychology factors influencing your behavior as an investor

When it comes to the psychology of investing, knowledge is power. Understanding prevalent emotional drivers that shape decision-making empowers individuals to make strategic and successful investment choices. Without further ado, here are the most common psychological factors that influence investors’ behavior.

1. Herd mentality is one of the phenomena studied by investment psychology

Herd mentality, also known as sheep mentality, is the human inclination to follow the crowd. A common behavioral phenomenon, it has been extensively explored by investment psychologists. Their work has shed a lot of light on how and why individuals tend to base their choices on the actions and opinions of the masses.

Applied to the world of finance, herd mentality, driven by mass emotions of fear or euphoria, can lead to the formation of market bubbles and precipitate dramatic crashes. Some prime cases in point include the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the 2007-2008 housing bubble. Investors who understand the dynamics of herding are less likely to succumb to the irrational exuberance of a market bubble or the collective panic of a market crash.

💡 Expert Tip: Herd mentality is a tale as old as time. While it’s unlikely to stop occurring any time soon, you can use knowing about it to your advantage! According to some of the best councils about investment psychology from great financiers, to avoid falling victim to herd mentality, you should always conduct your independent research.

2. One important psychology investment model talks about the fear of regret

Regret theory, a central model in psychology and investing, delves into the profound impact of the fear of regret on investment decisions. The model recognizes that investors often make choices not only based on the expected financial outcomes but also considering how they will feel about their decisions in the future.

The fear of regret stems from the apprehension that an investment choice might lead to negative emotions like remorse or self-blame. Most commonly, it leads people to opt for safer, more conventional investments, even if the potential for higher returns exists elsewhere.

Investment psychology explores strategies to mitigate the fear of regret, promoting rational decision-making and a better balance between risk and reward.

💡 Expert Tip: The key to investing in the assets you want without regretting it later is diversification. Spreading your investments across different assets can reduce the impact of a single investment’s potential poor performance, so there is no need to be afraid!

3. Loss aversion is a big theory in the psychology of investing

As far as investment theory psychology is concerned, loss aversion is one of the most prominent paradigms. Closely related to the aforementioned fear of regret theory, the concept of loss aversion posits that people feel the pain of losses more intensely than the pleasure of gains. In practical terms, it means that investors are often inclined to be overly cautious to avoid losses, even when the potential for gains is significant.

Loss aversion can lead to suboptimal choices, preventing people from reaching their full investment potential. Investment psychology extensively studies this phenomenon to understand its implications and develop strategies to manage it effectively.

💡 Expert Tip: Focus on your long-term investment strategy. Adapt your perspective to see losses as minor bumps along the way that ultimately will not prevent you from reaching your destination.

You don’t need to worry about loss aversion when you invest in classic silver coins like this one:

1 oz American Silver Eagle

  • Country of origin: United States
  • Metal: Silver
  • Fineness: .999

Check our most current price here.

1 oz American Silver Eagle

Do you prefer more weighty silver investments? Then how about one of these high-quality bars?

1 Kilo Silver Bar

  • Country of origin: Varies
  • Metal: Silver
  • Fineness: .999 or .9999

Kilo Silver Bar

4. A major element in investing psychology is confirmation bias

Confirmation bias has been the downfall of many investors. This bias refers to the tendency to seek and remember only the information that aligns with our pre-existing beliefs. In the context of investing, confirmation bias can lead to a skewed perspective and poor investment decisions.

Recognizing the presence and impact of confirmation bias is essential for investors. To make successful and profitable investment decisions, it is important to maintain an objective approach, taking into account recent and accurate financial data.

💡 Expert Tip: Before investing, always examine your fundamental convictions. Ask yourself whether you are basing your decisions on the psychology of previous investment successes or if you are looking at a fresh situation objectively.

5. The psychology of investment studies mental accounting behaviors

Mental accounting is basically compartmentalizing. People do it all the time to facilitate various aspects of their lives, from managing home organization or work-life balance.

As you’d have it, investing is no exception. Many people have the automatic instinct to compartmentalize investments in their heads. Dividing assets into good and bad based on previous experience and other factors can help investors mentally navigate the financial landscape.

However, mental accounting can seriously affect investor psychology and investment decisions. This can happen in many different ways, including hesitating to sell poorly performing assets because they’re in the “Good” box thanks to past gains. It is important to remember mental accounting isn’t always helpful and can hinder profitability.

💡 Expert Tip: Use specialized financial software to view your overall financial picture before you invest. This will help you avoid the trap of compartmentalizing and ensure that your investment decisions align with your broader financial goals and strategy.

6. Rusbult’s close relationship model can be applied to investment psychology

Does the phrase “Rusbult investment model psychology” ring a bell? Caryl E. Rusbult was a social psychologist who talked about the three factors that influence the stability of romantic relationships in what is known as the “close relationship model”. These factors are commitment, satisfaction, and alternative options.

Surprisingly, this underlying principle can be a valuable framework for understanding the emotional factors that influence investments. Individuals may become deeply committed to a specific investment, even when it no longer serves their best interests. Similarly, a satisfied investor may become complacent with their current investments. Another who believes they have no alternative choices may be willing to buy risky assets. See where this is going?

💡 Expert Tip: Maintain an unemotional approach when it comes to investments. Regularly viewing your portfolio with a critical eye and setting clear financial goals will help you do that.

Do you have a hard time keeping your cool when you see beautiful gold coins like this one? We get it!

1 oz Austrian Gold Philharmonic Coin

  • Country of origin: United States
  • Metal: Gold
  • Fineness: .900
                    1 oz Austrian Gold Philharmonic Coin

 

 

 

 

 

If you’ve got the psychology investing down to a T, see more coins here.

Do you prefer gold bars to coins? This Swiss piece is a remarkable one:

1 oz Pamp Suisse Gold Bar

    • Country of origin: Switzerland
    • Metal: Gold
  • Fineness: .9999

1 oz Pamp Suisse Gold Bar

7. Prospect theory affects investor psychology and investment decisions

How does the psychology of the typical person affect investment returns? Prospect theory takes a good swing at answering that. A seminal concept in the field of investment psychology, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when it comes to gains and risk-seeking when faced with losses. They prefer certain gains over uncertain ones, even if the latter could offer higher expected value. In contrast, when facing losses, individuals tend to become risk-seeking, often taking gambles to avoid a sure loss, even if the gamble is riskier.

As would be expected, this leads to suboptimal investment behavior. It makes investors hold onto losing assets hoping for a recovery, or conversely, selling assets prematurely to secure gains.

💡 Expert Tip: If you suspect you could be influenced by prospect theory, seek external advice. Before buying or selling assets, talk to a professional who can offer objective investment guidance.

8. Investment psychology explained: delving into overconfidence bias

Let’s face it: we all know an overconfident, cocky person who thinks they know it all. While this can be annoying, it usually doesn’t pose a big problem. Unless it comes to investing, that is.

In investing psychology chart explanations, the overconfidence bias is described as a psychological phenomenon that stems from an individual’s tendency to overestimate their own knowledge, skills, and judgment. It can lead to unwarranted risk-taking and a failure to recognize potential pitfalls, ultimately impacting investment decision-making.

💡 Expert Tip: The only antidote to overconfidence is education. Read some of the top investing books of all time and learn everything you need to know about investments!

9. Emotional investment psychology explores anchoring behaviors

Another cognitive bias that can influence investment choices is anchoring behaviors. In investment psychology, this refers to when investors assume that the market price is the correct price. They fixate on some information as a reference point that they use to “anchor” their decisions. This, of course, can lead to biased judgment.

Understanding anchoring is vital for investors, as it highlights the need to critically assess financial information and avoid being unduly influenced by arbitrary references.

💡 Expert Tip: Do your research prior to investing to ensure you’re not anchored to past prices or misinformation. This can be especially useful if buying items at auction!

10. An investment model psychology talks about is plasticity

Last, but certainly not least, is the powerful concept of plasticity. This basically means the capacity of investors to adapt, learn, and change their financial behaviors, responding to changing market conditions. This cognitive flexibility is integral to investor psychology and investment decisions that are rational. It enables individuals to adjust strategies in response to market shifts and learn from past experiences, fostering improved financial outcomes.

The concept of plasticity is important because it suggests that investors can overcome biases and make better choices by actively working on improving their investment skills.

💡 Expert Tip: Have faith in the concept of plasticity! By trusting in your capacity to evolve and refine your strategies over time, you can become a more adept investor.

Got the skills and just need a great investment to match? This meticulously crafted platinum coin could be it:

1 oz American Platinum Eagle

  • Country of origin: United States
  • Metal: Platinum
  • Fineness: .9995

1 oz American Platinum Eagle

Time to apply your knowledge of investing psychology!

Emotional and cognitive factors can have a significant impact on investment decisions. Mastering the world of investing is not just about financial expertise. It also demands a keen awareness of the emotional undercurrents driving market decisions.

To start your investment journey, head to Blanchard. There, you will find a wide selection of precious metals coins and bars at the most competitive prices!

Something on your mind? If you still have doubts about investing in bullion after reading this piece on the psychology of investment, check out our “Why invest?” section here.

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Existing Home Sales Sink Over 18%: What This Means For Gold

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With 30-year fixed mortgage rates topping the 7% mark, it’s no surprise the housing market has ground to a halt. Existing home sales plunged 19.3% through the first eleven months of 2023, versus the same period last year, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Housing

Slowing home sales hurts more than just buyers and sellers, however. The housing market slowdown has a ripple effect throughout the entire economy, impacting consumer spending and even the labor market. And this, in turn, has positive implications for gold in 2024.

Low Inventory, High Prices, High Mortgage Rates

Wannabe home buyers have seen one of the most challenging housing markets in years, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes triggered a sharp jump in mortgage rates in 2023.

The Fed rate hikes created a scenario where would-be home sellers decided to stay put and not even put their homes on the market. Many current homeowners refinanced mortgages in recent years and have ultra-low mortgage rates, which they weren’t eager to trade in for a sharply higher mortgage rate if they moved.

So, home buyers across the country face a low inventory of available homes for sale. There were 1.13 million homes on the market by the end of November, the National Association of REALTORS® said. Before the pandemic, there were roughly twice as many homes on the market.

In turn, the low inventory situation pushed home prices higher. The higher home prices, combined with the higher mortgage rates ultimately priced many potential home buyers out of the market in 2023.

Housing’s Impact on the Economy

The housing sector has a surprisingly large impact on the overall U.S. economy and also has implications for the direction of the gold market in 2024.

Consider this: when someone buys a new home, they also typically must furnish that home with new sofas, dining tables, curtains, maybe even new appliances, patio furniture and a snow blower or lawn mower. The spillover impact is larger than you might expect.

During the first year after closing on a house, a typical buyer of a newly built single-family detached home spends, on average, $9,250 more than a similar non-moving homeowner, according to the National Association of Home Builders. A 2021 NAR study estimated that the housing market generated a median of about $113,000 in economic impact per home sale.

What about the job market? Here’s what the Wall Street Journal said on Dec. 19: “Less spending on housing means less need for workers in industries that are closely tied to the real-estate market, including at retailers for furniture and electronics, and at home-improvement stores. Employment is down across those industries this year.”

The bottom line? When home sales plunge, like we saw in the first eleven months of 2023, it’s a drag on the economy and consumer spending.

What Does This Mean for Gold?

The U.S. economy is estimated to slow down in 2024, with some firms even forecasting a mild recession. The Conference Board currently projects an overall gross domestic product (GDP) rate of 0.9% in 2024, down from 2.4% in 2023. However, other firms including bond giant PIMCO, Deutsche Bank, Vanguard, PNC and LPL Financial all expect a mild recession to emerge in the U.S. in 2024.

A slowing economy will open the door to higher gold prices ahead. As the economy slows down or falls into recession in 2024, the Fed will be forced to slash interest rates to remove the tighter monetary conditions. That will open the door for a run to new all-time highs in gold.

Indeed, JP Morgan expects a series of interest rate cuts between the second half 2024 and the first half of 2025 which they say could lift gold to $2,300 an ounce. Bank of America is even more positive on gold: they predict if the Fed slashes interest rates in 2024, that gold could climb to an impressive $2,400 an ounce in the New Year.

Gold set a new all-time high in 2023. Investors can expect new record highs again in 2024. Is your portfolio set up to benefit from the rising trend in gold? If not, explore options like gold coins, fractional coins or gold bullion bars today.

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Can I Buy Gold and Silver for My IRA?

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Saving for retirement through an individual retirement account (IRA) has many benefits, which are widely known. What is not as commonly known is that you can invest in physical assets like gold or silver bullion inside an IRA account.1 oz American Gold Buffalo

Investing in physical gold within an IRA account has many benefits including diversification. As an investment, gold is considered a portfolio diversifier and offers you the opportunity to preserve and grow your wealth, especially when other asset classes aren’t performing well.

If I want to invest in gold or silver in my IRA, can I store the bullion in my home?

No. You will need to open a self-directed IRA account with an IRS-approved custodian bank to add gold to an IRA. Blanchard has a longstanding relationship with GoldStar Trust Company, but we’ll gladly help you get started with any IRS-approved custodial institution you choose.

With a self-directed IRA, you can invest in a wide variety of precious metals including gold, silver, platinum or palladium. However, the IRS has specific criteria your precious metals must meet.

What is IRA-eligible gold and silver, platinum and palladium according to the IRS?

These are the minimum “fineness requirements” for precious metals that are set by the IRS in order to be IRA-eligible gold, silver, platinum and palladium. These include:

  • Gold: .995 fine (Gold American Eagle is the only exception)
  • Silver: .999 fine
  • Platinum: .9995 fine
  • Palladium: .9995 fine

Wondering how to get started?

Follow these three steps to open a precious metal IRA

Step 1: Open Your Account. You can easily roll over an existing IRA or 401(k) or open a new precious metals IRA.

Step 2: Transfer Funds. You can choose an investment amount you would like to rollover and transfer funds from your existing IRA, 401(k), or TSP account. The transfer or rollover process is tax and penalty free.

Step 3: Choose Your Metals and Fund Your Account. Examples of IRA approved gold and silver include the following:

  • 1 oz. American Gold Buffalo
  • 1 oz. Australian Gold Kangaroo Coin
  • 1 oz. Austrian Silver Philharmonic Coin
  • 10 oz. Silver Bullion Bars
  • 100 oz. Silver Bars
  • 1 oz. Canadian Gold Maple Leaf Coin
  • 1 oz. Austrian Gold Philharmonic Coin
  • 1 oz. Gold Bar
  • 1 oz. American Platinum Eagle

How much can you contribute to a self-directed IRA?

The IRS contribution limits for a self-directed IRA are the same as a traditional IRA and you will enjoy the same tax advantages. For 2024, the limit on annual contributions to an IRA increased to $7,000.

Build a secure future with a self-directed IRA

Before you add your hard earned savings to a typical IRA that invests in mutual funds, exchange traded funds, bond funds or cash, consider this. Those are all paper assets. Confidence in the stock market is on the decline. History demonstrates that gold is uncorrelated with the S&P 500. That simply means when the S&P 500 plunges, gold typically moves sharply higher. That makes gold an excellent portfolio risk diversification tool and an ideal investment for a self-directed IRA. Adding gold to your IRA portfolio is a form of wealth protection in a tax-advantaged retirement account.

Get started today

It is a relatively easy process to transfer some or all of your current IRA to a retirement plan custodian that specializes in tangible asset investments. Using an IRA to buy physical gold retains the tax advantages and offers you the potential for capital appreciation and inflation and purchasing power protection over time. If you are looking for an opportunity to add an additional layer of diversification into your investment strategy, a self-directed IRA could be right for you.

Questions? We are here to help. Call Blanchard at 1-800-880-4653. Or learn more about adding precious metals to your IRA here.

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Only Four 1830 Templeton Reid $5 Gold Coins Are in Private Hands

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In the late 1820s, gold was discovered in the Georgia woods near a mountain town called Dahlonega. Soon after, the Georgia Gold Rush was in full swing as thousands of Americans descended upon the area in search of riches.Templeton Reid $5 gold coin obverse and reverse loose

The Georgia Gold Rush lasted for over a decade, from 1829 to the early 1840’s. In 1831, it was estimated there were as many as 10,000 miners prospecting between the Etowah and Chestatee Rivers alone.

Some fortunate mining prospectors did strike it rich with millions of dollars of gold found in the area. Yet, the Philadelphia Mint was deemed too far away by some for safe travel and the lack of a nearby U.S. Mint at that time opened the door for entrepreneurs to strike private gold coins.

So, in July 1830, a man named Templeton Reid, who had worked as a blacksmith, gunsmith, silversmith and a jeweler, seized the opportunity and decided to set up his own private mint in Milledgeville, Georgia. Reid produced gold coins in three denominations: $2.50, $5, and $10.

Today, the legendary Templeton Reid $5 gold coin is one of the great early American rarities among private and territorial gold issues. Only six Templeton Reid $5 gold coins are known to survive and two of those are safely ensconced in the National Numismatic Collection at the Smithsonian Institution.

Only four Templeton Reid $5 gold coins are in private hands. These exceedingly rare early American treasures rarely surface for sale.

While the original mintage for the Templeton Reid $5 gold coin was estimated at 300, most of these coins met their fate in the melting pot. The public lost confidence in Reid’s coins after a letter was published in the August 16, 1830 edition of the Georgia Courier stating that one of his $10 coins only contained $9.38 in gold.

It is thought that Reid was an honest man and although his weights were accurate, the assays were not, so his coins were slightly below the intended value. Soon after, however, Reid closed down his mint in October, 1830.

Reid’s total mintage for all three gold coin denominations was estimated at only 1,600. Most of Reid’s coins were melted down and very few survivors are known today. When a Templeton Reid $5 gold coin surfaces for sale it is truly a once in a lifetime event in the numismatic community.

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Inflation and Gold: Looking Back into 2023 and Ahead to 2024

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Despite persistent forecasts for a U.S. recession, 2023 may well be remembered as the year a recession never happened. Yet, the jury is still out on whether or not the Federal Reserve can engineer a so-called “soft landing” in 2024 – or bring down inflation to the central bank’s 2% target without triggering a recession. Throughout it all in 2023, gold served investors well as a safe-haven and a hedge against inflation as we saw the precious metal push to a new all-time record high above the $2,100 an ounce level.Gold bars

A quick look back: how inflation started

During the Covid pandemic, a mix of economic factors including global supply chain pressures, labor and material shortages and loose monetary and fiscal policy conspired to drive inflation sharply higher.

Starting in March 2022, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates from 0.25-0.50% to its current 5.25-5.50% level in an effort to battle inflation down. While it took time, the impact from higher interest rates have helped slow down inflation.

Inflation: by the numbers

While many Americans may still feel that prices of goods and services are still too high, the pace of inflation has slowed during 2023.

Since January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from an annualized 6.4% rate to 3.1% in November. As inflation fell, gold increased in value. While inflation is one of the drivers for gold, other factors also support the precious metal including its role as a global safe-haven asset during times of war and military strife. The breakout of the Israel-Hamas war triggered fresh buying into gold in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Gold Chart

While progress has been made on inflation, it is too early for the Fed to declare victory. Inflation still stands above the Fed’s 2% target. Many economists warn the “last mile” to the 2% target rate may be the hardest to achieve.

For now, the higher interest rates haven’t triggered an economic recession but the U.S. economy isn’t out of the woods yet. A number of Wall Street firms, including bond giant PIMCO, Deutsche Bank, Vanguard, PNC and LPL Financial, all expect a mild recession to emerge in the U.S. in 2024. Many consumers are shouldering high debt burdens as American credit card debt recently hit a new all-time record high which will weigh down consumer spending in the New Year.

Inflation remains, but Fed may be forced to cut rates

As we roll into 2024, gold can benefit from both falling interest rates and inflation that remains too high.

While Americans will continue to keep an eye on everyday prices, slowing economic growth may force the Fed to cut interest rates—even if inflation still remains above its 2% target rate. Indeed, at its December meeting, the central bank already revealed that it has penciled in three rate cuts in 2024.

What does this mean for gold? Higher interest rates typically compete with gold, which pays no interest. So, when rates fall, gold generally climbs. The falling interest rate environment is a positive driver for gold, while above target inflation creates a floor under the precious metal.

Gold has proven value to investors in all parts of the business and investing cycle and, throughout 2023, acted as a strong ballast to diversified portfolios. As we head into a New Year, have you considered if you own enough?

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How to Get Started in Collecting Rare Coins on a Budget

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On a tight budget, the world of rare coin collecting can seem daunting, even to seasoned numismatic enthusiasts. This piece will unveil a treasure trove of strategies and clever tips to invest in a rare coin collection without breaking the bank. Our discussion will focus on:

  • The factors that determine a coin’s rarity.
  • The motivations that drive coin collectors.
  • Rare coin collecting money-saving tips.

Watch an expert’s advice on how to collect coins on a budget in this informative video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JheVso1yXYA

What are rare collectible coins?

Understanding what makes a coin rare involves discerning myriads of factors, including its historical significance, design, and market demand. Among the many aspects influencing a coin’s rarity, three main determinants stand out prominently:

  • Mintage: The concept of mintage plays a pivotal role in determining a coin’s rarity due to its direct correlation with supply. Mintage refers to the quantity of a specific coin produced during a certain period. When a coin has a limited production run, fewer specimens enter circulation or collector markets, intensifying its rarity.

Additionally, historical events, errors in production, or changes in economic conditions might influence low mintages, making certain coins even scarcer. Consequently, coins with low mintage figures become sought-after treasures within the numismatic community, commanding higher values.

  • Condition: A coin’s condition, i.e. its preservation over time, significantly impacts its scarcity. Coins in pristine condition, with minimal wear, scratches, or damage, are scarce due to the natural aging process. When it comes to graded coins, those maintaining higher grades, indicating exceptional preservation, scarcity, and original luster, become rarer and more sought-after by collectors. The rarity of coins in remarkable condition is further accentuated by the scarcity of such specimens in the market.
  • Age: A coin’s age is another factor that significantly influences its rarity. The passage of time inherently limits the availability of older coins, especially those from ancient or distant historical periods. Coins from antiquity or specific eras become rarer due to natural attrition, loss, or destruction, contributing to their scarcity.

For example, one can’t help but admire this beauty that we recently placed on Blanchard:

1795 $5 Draped Bust Small Eagle

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why collect rare coins?

Humans’ fascination with collecting rare coins spans centuries. Mostly driven by the desire to preserve historical artifacts and the excitement of obtaining unique and scarce specimens, people have always been drawn to rare coins. This appreciation of rarity continues to fuel the enduring fascination with collecting rare coins.

Some of the main motivations that drive contemporary coin collectors are the following:

  • Pleasure: One of the biggest reasons behind the pursuit of coin collecting is simply pleasure. Coin collecting is an enjoyable and deeply gratifying hobby. The joy derived from it lies in the thrill of the hunt as collectors seek elusive or unique coins. Furthermore, the sense of accomplishment and pride from building a curated collection fuels a feeling of personal satisfaction.
  • Wealth Preservation: Investment Investment is a compelling reason for contemporary coin collecting. Certain coins possess inherent value and the potential for appreciation over time. Investors view rare coins as tangible assets with the capacity to diversify their portfolios beyond traditional options.
  • Family Legacy: Rare coins are not only sought after for their scarcity but also serve as enduring heirlooms, passed down through generations. Old coins encapsulate stories of bygone eras, fostering a tangible link to ancestry. As such, they offer younger generations a glimpse into the past, igniting curiosity and a sense of connection with their heritage. The shared stories behind rare coins bridge generational divides, instilling a profound appreciation for familial legacy.

The pursuit of rare coins more often than not involves researching their origins, understanding their significance, and deciphering their stories, fostering a deeper understanding of history and artistry. Moreover, the process of collecting encourages critical thinking, research skills, and the development of a discerning eye, contributing to a well-rounded education.

Woman looking through glass

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Money-saving tips for rare coin collecting

Contrary to a prevalent misconception, acquiring rare coins within budgetary constraints is entirely feasible. How to get started in collecting rare coins on a budget? The secret lies in sticking to these ingenious tips:

1. Start collecting rare coins by purchasing lower-grade ones

A solid tip for foraying into rare and collectible coins on a budget is starting with lower-grade coins. Opting for coins rated on the lower end of the grading scale often presents an advantageous entry point for collectors.

These coins, while exhibiting more wear or imperfections, typically command lower prices compared to their higher-grade counterparts. Embracing coins with lower grades allows collectors to assemble a foundational collection without stretching their budget constraints.

Additionally, these lower-grade coins may still possess historical significance, unique designs, or belong to limited mintage series, providing an opportunity to delve into specific eras or themes within numismatics. As collectors advance and their budget permits, they can gradually upgrade their collection by acquiring higher-grade specimens.

2. Do research before building your rare coin collection

Conducting thorough research before commencing a rare coin collection proves to be a prudent money-saving strategy for enthusiasts on a budget. Delving into comprehensive research about the rarest coins to collect allows collectors to familiarize themselves with various aspects of coins they’re interested in, including historical contexts, mintage numbers, and market trends.

By acquiring this knowledge, collectors can make informed decisions and avoid overspending on overhyped or misrepresented pieces. Moreover, understanding the nuances of grading standards and recognizing reputable sources for purchasing coins ensures that collectors obtain genuine and fairly priced specimens.

Research also unveils underrated or undervalued coins, presenting opportunities to acquire noteworthy pieces within budgetary constraints.

To facilitate your research, Blanchard is readily available to assist. Our experts can provide personalized guidance on beginning, or adding to a coin collection, ensuring a well-informed and rewarding collecting experience.

3. Read books about rare coins collecting

While on the topic of research, books must, of course, be mentioned. Consulting a rare coin collection book may sound obvious, but it is instrumental for building budget-friendly collections. Books often highlight undervalued coins, offering valuable tips for identifying hidden treasures within budget constraints. To start, you can’t go wrong with The Guide Book of United States Coins, a.k.a. The Red Book.

Coin Book

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4. To successfully collect rare coins on a budget, be selective

It is easy to get carried away when choosing one’s rare coin collection for sale. However, successfully collecting rare coins within a budget necessitates a selective approach.

Being discerning allows collectors to focus on acquiring coins that align with their specific interests, goals, and budget constraints. By honing in on particular series, themes, or historical periods, collectors can avoid overspending on expansive or diverse collections.

Selectivity encourages patience, enabling enthusiasts to wait for opportune moments or favorable pricing for coins of higher significance or rarity within their preferred categories. This approach fosters a curated collection of exceptional coins, ensuring quality over quantity.

5. When it comes to collectible rare coins, start small

Many great numismatists started their collections with small, inexpensive coins. Indeed, that is a brilliant way of going about building one’s rare coin collection.

Starting with either smaller denominations or less costly coins enables individuals to build a foundational assortment without significant financial strain. This approach cultivates experience, providing an opportunity to understand preferences, grading standards, and market dynamics before venturing into higher-value acquisitions.

An excellent and economical rare coin to start one’s collection is the Morgan Dollar:

1878 – 1904 Morgan $1 BU

  • Metal: Silver
  • Year: 1878 – 1904

Get our most current price here.

Silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another worthy contender is the coin created to take its place, i.e. the Peace Dollar:

$1 Peace MS63 Certified

  • Metal: Silver
  • Year: Varies

Get our most current price here.

$1 Peace MS63 Certified

 

 

 

 

 

 

For help deciding which Peace silver dollar to add to your collection, ask a Blanchard expert.

 

6. Rare coin collecting is a marathon, not a sprint

Viewing building rare coin collections as a marathon rather than a sprint proves beneficial for budget-conscious collectors. Patience becomes a valuable asset as collections appreciate over time. Rare coins often increase in value gradually, rewarding collectors who hold onto their acquisitions.

Understanding this long-term growth potential allows enthusiasts to focus on strategic acquisitions aligned with their budget, rather than rushing into costly purchases. Additionally, over time, coins may gain historical significance or become rarer, increasing their value.

7. Rare collectible coins are all about quality

Prioritizing quality over quantity is paramount for building a rare classic coins collection on a budget. Opting for coins of superior quality, even if fewer in number, ensures lasting value and potential appreciation. Higher-quality coins tend to retain value and appeal, making them more desirable among collectors.

While initial costs of quality coins like this one may be higher, investing in coins with better condition, limited wear, and superior preservation often proves financially astute in the long run:

1885 Type III Gold $1 NGC PR65 CAC MS60

  • Metal: Gold
  • Year: 1885

View our most current price here.

8. Look for American rare coin collectibles at coin shows

Exploring rare coin collectibles at coin shows can be a savvy strategy for budget-conscious collectors. These events offer a diverse array of coins, providing opportunities to find unique and often undervalued pieces.

Coin shows facilitate direct interactions with dealers and sellers, allowing enthusiasts to negotiate prices or discover coins priced below market rates. Additionally, the variety of coins available at these shows, ranging from lesser-known series to rarities, presents a chance to unearth hidden gems that may not be easily accessible elsewhere.

Rarities like this beautiful coin can sometimes be found at coin shows:

1902 $2.50 Liberty PCGS MS65 CAC

  • Metal: Gold
  • Year: 1902

See our most current price here.

1902 $2.50 Liberty PCGS MS65 CAC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Click here to view more American rare coins and collectibles with CAC grading.

9. Joining a coin club is a great way to find rare coins to collect

Joining a coin club is an excellent avenue for budget-minded rare coin collectors to discover coveted pieces. These clubs foster a sense of community among enthusiasts, providing access to shared knowledge and trading opportunities for building a rare historical coin collection.

Members often offer coins for sale or trade at reasonable prices, allowing collectors to acquire rarities without hefty markups. Additionally, club meetings or events facilitate networking with experienced collectors who may offer guidance on finding undervalued or overlooked coins.

For example, an experienced numismatist might tell you that old commemoratives, like this one, are often a great investment:

1935-S San Diego 50c Commemorative PCGS MS65

  • Metal: Silver
  • Year: 1935

Have a look at our most current price here.

1935-S San Diego 50c Commemorative PCGS MS65

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read this piece to find out more about valuable commemorative rare coins and collectibles.

10. Use free apps and resources to build your rare coins collection

Leveraging free apps and online resources can prove invaluable for budget-conscious rare coin collectors. Utilizing free apps and online platforms provides access to a vast array of information, including market values, historical insights, and grading standards on a rare collectible coin, without incurring additional costs. This wealth of knowledge aids collectors in making informed decisions when acquiring rare coins.

Moreover, dedicated numismatic communities and forums on these platforms facilitate discussions, enabling enthusiasts to seek advice, exchange insights, and, on occasion, even discover potential acquisitions, like this great-value rare coin:

$1 Gold Type 3 Certified MS63

  • Metal: Gold
  • Year: 1857

Check our most current price here.

$1 Gold Type 3 Certified MS63

 

 

 

 

 

If you found this article engaging, you can delve further into the nuances of how to collect rare coins by consulting our rare coins guide.

Where to buy collectible rare coins

Embarking on rare coin collecting within a budget demands a strategic approach. Some of the keys to success include conducting extensive research, having patience, and prioritizing quality over quantity. To start building a valuable rare coin collection on a budget, simply use Blanchard. As the premier choice for precious metals investing, it is synonymous with quality coins at competitive prices.

Want to read more? Subscribe to the Blanchard Newsletter and get our tales from the vault, our favorite stories from around the world, and the latest tangible assets news delivered to your inbox weekly.

The 1903-S Barber Half Dollar: A Remarkable Coin

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First minted in 1892, the Barber Half Dollar remains a treasured collectible among numismatists due to its historical significance and iconic design. However, as seasoned collectors understand, not all Barbers are created equal. One notable stand-out is the 1903-S Barber Half Dollar. In this article, we delve into different facets of this coin, exploring 1903-S Barber Half Dollar value and more, including:Barber Half Dollar

  • The history of the Barber Half Dollar.
  • Characteristics of the 1903-S Barber Half Dollar coin.
  • Grading considerations for Barber Half Dollar collectors.

To find out more about Barber Liberty Head Half Dollar grading, watch this informative video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y3d4G8afmk

What is a Barber Half Dollar

The Barber Half Dollar was a coin minted in the United States from 1892 to 1915. It was named after its designer, Chief Engraver Charles E. Barber, one of the most famous U.S. coin designers of all time. Also known as Liberty Head Half Dollars, Half Dollar Barber coins were a result of the U.S. Mint’s initiative to introduce a new design for the half dollar denomination.

The Barber Half Dollar’s bold design marked a pivotal change from its predecessor, the Seated Liberty Half Dollar. On the obverse, Barber Half Dollars depict a bust right of Liberty wearing a Phrygian cap with a laurel wreath. She is encircled by 13 six-pointed stars. The coin’s reverse design features a heraldic eagle holding 13 arrows with his left claw and an olive branch with the right. In the eagle’s mouth is a scroll that reads “E PLURIBUS UNUM”.

The Barber Half Dollar held a pivotal role in early 20th-century America, especially among American settlers venturing westward. In a frontier where trade relied heavily on currency, it was very useful to have coins worth their actual weight in precious metal. Barber Half Dollars swiftly emerged as one of the most widely used coins for day-to-day transactions. Consequently, a majority of these coins remaining today are very worn down.

The scarcity of uncleaned Barber Half Dollars in AU condition or better, coupled with the fact Barber Half Dollars had a minting span of less than 25 years and relatively limited mintage numbers, enhances their allure among collectors.

What is a 1903-S Barber Half Dollar

As its name, alluding to its mint mark, implies, it was struck in 1903 by the San Francisco Mint. A well-struck coin with a mintage of 1,920,772, the 1903-S Barber Half Dollar doesn’t hold the distinction of the lowest mintage among Barber Halves. Nevertheless, its relative scarcity compared to more prevalent dates within the series elevates its allure among collectors.

Beyond its scarcity, collectors are drawn to this coin for its ability to narrate a tale of a bygone era. 1903-S Barber Half Dollars serve as tangible links to a very dynamic time in American history, a period brimming with transformative milestones that shaped the nation’s trajectory. Minted amidst events like the founding of Ford Motor Company, the United States’ acquisition of control of the Panama Canal Zone, the inaugural baseball World Series, and the Wright brothers’ pioneering flight, this coin encapsulates the essence of a pivotal epoch.

Today, securing a 1903-S Barber Half Dollar in superior condition can be challenging, augmenting its value among collectors pursuing pristine specimens.

History of the silver Barber Half Dollar

The story of the Barber silver Half Dollar began long before the first one of them was struck in 1892. The coin owes its existence to the Mint Act of September 26, 1890. This legislation allowed for the redesign of coins utilized for a minimum of 25 years, catalyzing Mint Director J.P. Kimball’s pursuit to revamp the nation’s coinage.

While Barber Halves are today appreciated for their intricate yet clean design, arriving at it was far from straightforward. Initially, the redesign process was envisioned as a competition among artists to submit innovative designs.

However, this plan quickly faltered due to a multitude of issues, including disputes over artists’ compensation and a lack of noteworthy submissions. With none of the proposed designs meeting expectations, Mint Director Edward O. Leech turned to the Mint’s Chief Engraver Charles Barber to lead the design efforts.

Even though Barber was renowned for his engraving prowess, many of his initial designs were met with rejection. The disagreements between Leech and Barber extended to every minute detail of the coin’s design from the depiction of Lady Liberty on the obverse to the number of olive branches held by the eagle on the reverse.

One particularly heated dispute had to do with the number of points on the stars depicted on the coin. Barber advocated for five-pointed stars over six, symbolizing a distinction from English coinage and aligning with American symbolism, ultimately convincing Leech to go with his version.

The painstaking design process endured for years. The finalization of the design came down to the wire, with the reverse remaining a contentious subject until November 1891 when Barber presented the last patterns, differentiated by the presence or absence of clouds above the eagle. Ultimately, Judd-1763 was chosen as the approved design by President Harrison and his cabinet.

In January 1892, after years of meticulous craftsmanship and disputes, the first Barber coins were struck at the Philadelphia Mint. However, the silver Barber Half Dollar’s unveiling and subsequent circulation received a mixed response, deemed rather dull by the majority of people. This lukewarm reception prompted Congress to approve another design change, culminating in the coin’s replacement in 1916 by the iconic Walking Liberty design crafted by Adolph A. Weinman.

Barber Half Dollar: key dates

It is important for Barber Halves collectors to consider the coins’ timeline, as it also helps put into perspective the value of Barber Half Dollars.

  •  1892: The inaugural batch of these coins emerged from the presses at the Philadelphia Mint on January 2, 1892.
  • 1901: Modifications to the obverse hub for die production for use in coins were introduced. This resulted in a difference that can be seen in the area of Liberty’s ear, with Type II featuring a fuller lobe.
  • 1903 and 1905: Significant changes in Mint marks are made. Namely, the New Orleans Mint, which predominantly featured a medium-sized O Mint mark, transitioned to a more open O in later years like 1903 and 1905.

There are several pivotal dates over the coin’s 25-year span that Barber Halves collectors need to consider. However, a basic set of the Barber Half Dollar series comprises 73 coins, categorized by date and Mint mark. Notable among these are the following key and semi-key coins: 1892-O, 1895-S, 1913, 1914, and 1915.

Collectors seeking a Barber Half Dollar for sale will find that acquiring one in good condition proves to be an intriguing and rewarding challenge.

Characteristics of the 1903-S Barber Half Dollar coin

Outlined below are the defining attributes of the 1903-S US Barber Half Dollar.

Barber Half Dollar weight

A 1903-S Barber Half Dollar weighs 12.50 grams in total. The exact Barber Half Dollar silver weight is 11.25 grams.

How much silver is in a Barber Half Dollar

The Barber Half Dollar silver content is 90%. The remaining 10% is copper.

Barber Half Dollar mintage

Barber Half Dollars mintages were significantly lower than other Half Dollars. They averaged at under 2 million annually. The 1903-S Barber Half Dollar had a mintage of 1,920,722. It bears the characteristic S Barber Half Dollar mint mark, indicating its San Francisco origin.

Grading Barber Half Dollars

Barber Half Dollar grading, as numismatist David Lawrence points out, is relatively easy. The main thing to be considered when grading the series, he argues, is strike. Specifically, many Barber Halves from the New Orleans Mint are weakly struck, lacking detail on Liberty’s forehead. A well-struck Barber Half Dollar typically exhibits sharper details, lending it enhanced aesthetic allure and subsequently greater value within the numismatic market.

The most valuable Barber Half Dollars

Barber Half Dollars in lower grades (AG to VG) can be found easily at affordable prices. The most valuable Barber Half Dollars, however, are the ones in higher grades. These can be very difficult to find. In fact, in mint state, 22 out of 73 dates have an R4 rarity rating.

Top-valued Barber Halves include the 1904 S Barber Half Dollar, estimated at nearly $30,300, the 1893 S Barber Half Dollar at over $20,000, and the 1895 S Barber Half Dollar at $12,000.

Another one of the key date Barber Half Dollars is the 1892-O Micro O variety Half Dollar, selling for tens of thousands of dollars. This coin has less than a dozen known specimens across all grades.

Remarkably, almost half of all proof Barber Half Dollars, despite their limited annual mintage, remain available today.

1903-S Barber Half Dollar value

1903-Silver Barber Half Dollar coin value largely depends on condition. More specifically, the price of a 1903-S Barber Half can range from $30-40 for a coin in good condition to several thousand dollars for pristine, uncirculated condition.

For rare Barber Half Dollars and more collectible coins, visit Blanchard’s silver shop.

Where to find Barber Half Dollars for sale

Barber Half Dollars are widely collected. Beautifully crafted coins with a limited run, Barber Halves can be a prized addition to any numismatist’s collection. The well-struck 1903-S Barber Half Dollar, with its historical significance, is a noteworthy piece for collectors.

For further insights and assistance in navigating the world of Barber Half Dollar coins and other rare pieces, do not hesitate to reach out to Blanchard. Our team of experts is readily available to provide comprehensive information and guidance on building and expanding your coin collection.

Want to read more? Subscribe to the Blanchard Newsletter and get our tales from the vault, our favorite stories from around the world, and the latest tangible assets news delivered to your inbox weekly.

5 Factors That Will Drive Gold in 2024

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Gold has been one of the best performing commodities in 2023, up over 12% as the precious metal set a new all-time record high in late November. Traders like to say: “the trend is your friend” and in this case the trend points higher for gold. Here’s a look at five factors that will impact gold in the year ahead.Gold and Silver coins

1. Geopolitical tensions boiling hot

From China-U.S. tensions to the Russian war in the Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza strip, military and political hot spots are seen around the globe. What will the January presidential election in Taiwan bring and what could it mean for China’s desire to annex the island nation? Will Asia become another military flashpoint next year? Investors flocked to gold as war broke out in the Middle East in a traditional flight to safety. Increased geopolitical tensions in 2024 could open the door to another big upswing in gold.

2. Election year politics: a major uncertainty on the horizon

Presidential elections are always a source of market volatility. In 2024, we could see a more dramatic market impact, given that U.S. polarization is on the rise. At this point it appears that a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump is likely. But, a lot could happen between now and next November. Financial markets do not like uncertainty and just like the election in 2020, this presidential contest could be a nail biter that comes down to the wire. The greater the political uncertainty, the more risk for stock market volatility in 2024. Gold will benefit as the precious metal represents a long-standing safe-haven asset and ballast to portfolios.

3. The economy: soft or hard landing?

The economy will be a key driver for gold in 2024 as forecasts for slowing growth and potential for a mild recession will increase investor interest in gold as a hedge and portfolio diversifier.

While the stock market began pricing in a “soft landing” in December, which would mean a return to a 2% inflation rate without a recession, that is by no means a done deal. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 3.1% in November, an improvement from levels seen earlier in the year, but still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target inflation rate.

Will there be a “hard landing” scare in early 2024 as GDP numbers weaken and inflation remains sticky? If yes, look for stocks to tumble and gold to climb. A number of Wall Street firms including bond giant PIMCO, Deutsche Bank, Vanguard, PNC and LPL Financial all expect a mild recession to emerge in the U.S. in 2024. Inflation and interest rates have been two major drivers of gold market performance over the past several years, and they will remain important in 2024.

4. Fed policy: rate cuts ahead

In December, the Federal Reserve started talking about interest rate cuts, suggesting the current monetary policy cycle has peaked with the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%. Gold surged after the mid-December Fed meeting, when central bank officials suggested that they see three interest rate cuts in 2024. As higher interest rates typically compete with gold, which pays no interest, falling interest rate environments are historically positive for gold.

When interest rates fall, gold climbs. Looking into 2024, the falling interest rate environment will be a positive driver for gold and is a key reason many strategists expect gold to see new all-time highs in the $2,300-$2,400 region in the New Year.

5. Central banks: expect the buying spree to continue

Global central banks were voracious buyers of gold throughout 2023. Gold purchases from central banks are 14% higher through the end of the third quarter, versus the same time last year, the World Gold Council said. Peering into 2024, 24% of all central banks intend to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, as they increasingly grow pessimistic about the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset, a recent WGC survey said. This continued strong demand stream for gold will propel prices ever higher.

The bottom line

No economist or market analyst can accurately forecast what lies around the corner. Yet, prudent investors can capitalize on the uncertainty and take action to protect, preserve and grow their wealth with a diversified portfolio that includes an allocation to gold. We’re here to help.

Want to read more? Subscribe to the Blanchard Newsletter and get our tales from the vault, our favorite stories from around the world, and the latest tangible assets news delivered to your inbox weekly.