Precious Metal Market Outlook & Bullion Trading Economic Trends

Exclusive Precious Metals Market Outlook and Recommendations

Index updated July 6, 2026

Blanchard's Bi-weekly Index

The Blanchard Bi-weekly Index is a roll-up of industry news and economic trends affecting the precious metals market and trading world.

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Market Movers

Precious Metals

The U.S.-Iran cease-fire is largely holding as the two sides continue negotiations. Oil prices dropped to pre-war levels and oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering quickly. Gold edged higher to start the week and is holding above the $4,000 following recent dip buying. The long-term uptrend for gold remains intact.

Stocks gained on tech jitters eased following strong earnings from Nvidia supplier FoxConn. The stronger than expected jump in quarterly sales was seen as a sign of sustained AI demand. Space X, Elon Musk’s rocket company, will join the Nasdaq-100 Index this week, which could create a short-term buying spree as index-tracking funds are expected to buy shares.

Gold is tracking its typical seasonal pattern, the summer doldrums, in recent weeks. The pattern typically sees softness in gold prices, which typically ends around July 6. Gold consolidated and corrected lower in June, and fresh buying has already begun to emerge below the $4,000 level. Looking ahead, the summer pattern typically ends right around now, paving the way for a strong fall and winter rally that historically peaks in February. Notably, the stock market is heading into its seasonally weakest period. August and September are historically the weakest back-to-back months for the S&P 500.

Key Takeaway:

Gold is starting a seasonally bullish period, while stocks are entering a seasonally weak period. Current markets offer long-term investors opportunities to take profits in overvalued stocks and allocate those funds to undervalued gold. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. UBS targets $5,200 over the next 12 months as markets reassess Fed policy and dollar pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley targets gold at $5,200 in the second half of 2026.

Economic Update

The Institute for Supply Management’s Services Purchasing Managers Index (ISM Services PMI) pulled back to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in September. The Employment sub-index rose to 51.2 from 47.9 and was the strongest since February.
June jobs report news revealed that only 57,000 new jobs were created last month, versus the 113,000 economists had expected to see at the mid-point of the year.
The national average price of gasoline fell 6.8 cents per gallon in the last week, averaging $3.71/g on July 6. The national average slid 41.3 cents per gallon from a month ago, yet still stands 62.7 cents per gallon higher than a year ago, according to GasBuddy data.

Key Takeaway:

The ISM Services PMI pulled back in June but still revealed growth of service-providing businesses. The U.S. economy likely grew modestly in the second quarter and is set for further expansion in the second half of the year. The U.S. economic growth outlook looks steadier as Iran war risks decline amid the cease-fire.

In the News

Gold Jumps After Soft US Job Numbers Ease Fed Rate Hike Fears – Bloomberg, July 2.

Gold climbed after weak US job numbers eased fears that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this year to tackle inflation.

Why Are Central Banks Buying So Much Gold? 90% Institutions Cite This Reason – Yahoo Finance, July 2.

According to the survey of 69 central banks, 90% of respondents cited gold’s performance during periods of crisis as a primary reason for holding on to the precious metal.

I am contemplating selling some of my bitcoin for gold, veteran trader Peter Brandt says – CoinDesk, July 6.

“I am contemplating selling some of my Bitcoin and going to Gold with the money. Looks to me that Gold is going to gain substantially on Bitcoin,” Brandt told his followers on X.