A day after a JP Morgan commodities expert declared the start of a new bull market in gold, a note from billionaire Paul Singer expressing the same sentiment has emerged. Meanwhile, golds resilience forced longtime bear Goldman Sachs to retool its price forecasts to the upside.
Were actually recommending to our clients to position here for a new and very long bull market for gold, and I think $1,400 is very much in the cards this year, JPMorgans Solita Marcelli told CNBC on Tuesday.
Closer to the beginning than the end: And adding to golds burgeoning bullish sentiment, Elliott Management chief Singer, a longtime gold bull, re-emphasized his position in an April 28 note to clients. It makes a great deal of sense to own gold. Other investors may be finally starting to agree, he said. Investors have increasingly started processing the fact that the worlds central bankers are completely focused on debasing their currencies.
If investors confidence in central bankers judgment continues to weaken, the effect on gold could be very powerful,he added. We believe the March quarters price action could represent something closer to the beginning of such a move than to the end.
Goldman ups targets by $100+: Though Singers love of gold is no surprise, the backtracking of Goldman Sachs is. The investment bank was forced to raise its price forecasts for the coming year, with its three-month target increasing by $100, from $1,100 to $1,200.
Its longer-term forecasts also rose. The firm lifted its six-month target by $130, to $1,180 from $1,050, and its 12-month prediction by $150, to $1,150 from $1,000.
The firm altered its price forecasts after slashing its outlook for further interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve. Still, it hedged its more optimistic stance by emphasizing what it called the metals limited upside because of its views on the Fed, the dollar, and China.
Next president to see recession: Zero Hedge also noted that Goldman has halted its recommendation to short (or bet against) gold, which resulted in a loss for the investment bank. Though we forecast that gold prices will decline from spot over the next 3-12 months (with c.5%-9% downside the changes to our economists rates forecasts act to reduce the degree of downside to our modelled gold price profile and thus change the risk-reward of our previously implemented short gold trade recommendation (published February 15), which we close as a result at a c.4.5% loss, Goldman analysts wrote.
Theres a good chance that Goldman will have to do some more backtracking in the months to come. Why? Because were currently in the fourth-longest economic expansion in more than 150 years. And given how weak growth has been Barack Obama, for instance, will be the first U.S. president in history to never see a quarter of 3% or higher GDP the odds are significantly better than 50-50 that we will have a recession within the next three years, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has predicted. In fact, it would be a record if the next president didnt preside over a recession.
Thus, despite its hawkish talk, the Fed in kneejerk fashion could be forced to backtrack, like Goldman, on its planned rate-hike pace. After all, its counter-intuitive to raise interest rates during economic slowdowns. A handful of Wall Street firms think the Fed is done, or almost done raising rates, after making its first increase in December, noted MarketWatch. Thus, this would be the shortest Fed rate-hike cycle in history, and that eventuality jibes more closely with the gold-price projections of JPMorgan and Elliot Management than that of Goldman Sachs.