Gold on Thursday sealed the deal on its best quarterly price performance since 1986.

Though Asian demand has played a significant role in the metals breakout performance this year, Western investors surprisingly provided the spark that gold needed as they sought safe-haven shelter from volatility on the stock market and concerns over Chinas slowdown.

Holdings in ETFs rose 21% to 1,761.3 metric tons in the period, the biggest gain in any quarter since the three months ended March 2009, Bloomberg reported. At the same time, trading volumes on the largest futures exchange, the Comex in New York, reached 14.1 million contracts, a record for a first quarter.

Now that first-quarter 2016 is history, some experts are weighing in on what the rest of the year holds. One of the major precious-metals consultancies, Metals Focus of London, thinks this quarters rally has legs.

30% gain from December 2015 low: Changing expectations towards the outlook for U.S. interest rates, concerns about monetary policy elsewhere, as well as turbulent equity and bond markets, have re-kindled institutional investor interest in the metal, said its director, Nikos Kavalis.

This impressive recovery will mark the end of the bear cycle that started in late 2011. Further gains later in the year are forecast to see gold peak at $1,350 by end-2016, almost 30% higher than its December 2015 low.

And count Investec Asset Management as a true believer in golds rebirth. We believe that this years upturn in gold has fundamental support and, whilst early, does appear to be the start of a longer-term rally for the sector, it wrote, citing limited scope for further Fed rate hikes, strong emerging-market demand, and equity-market turbulence.

Another metal consultancies are less bullish but nonetheless say gold likely has bottomed. Acknowledging bullions blistering start to 2016 based on a variety of global macroeconomic concerns, GFMS nonetheless foresees another pullback this year, largely based on the argument that current market turbulence will start to ease.

GFMS sees improving fundamentals: Though predicting that gold might drop below $1,200 this year, GFMS tempered that outlook by saying bullion will find support due to the improving market fundamentals, namely, supply and demand.

On the supply side, we forecast global mine production to drop in 2016, representing the first annual decline since 2008 and the largest in percentage terms in more than a decade. While we expect a modest recovery in scrap volumes, particularly from markets where the gold price is not expressed in dollar terms, this is unlikely to offset losses in global mine production, thus resulting in lower total supply.

By contrast, we expect physical gold demand to improve later in 2016, particularly for investment-grade jewellery, triggered by a rebound in pent-up demand from Asia. This is likely to be driven by concerns about the slowdown in China, heightened uncertainty in currency markets, particularly in emerging economies, and a growing desire to diversify personal wealth. Moreover, a clear uptrend in the gold price or, at least, signs of stabilisation are likely to see investors returning to the market and gold regaining its lustre. The forecast reduction in global mine output and a gradual recovery in demand will see the physical surplus narrow in 2016, providing support to the gold price and laying the foundation for better prospects.

Economic concerns to resurface: And CPM Group also sees gold maintaining strong support even if it does pull back, before rebounding toward 2017. CPM President Jeff Christian says easing fears about the global economy could take gold back down to $1,170 or even $1,130.

Our expectation is that the gold price comes down over the next two quarters second and third and by the end of year starts rising again as investor concerns of the economic outlook for 2017 starts to take hold again, he said.

Inflation is still by no means going gangbusters, but nascent signs that prices are starting to rise should have investors thinking about gold as a portfolio hedge.

Crude oil has rallied by about 50% since its February lows; the S&P/Case-Shiller housing-price index posted a 5.7% rise in January; and the Consumer Price Index for February showed that core inflation (minus food and energy costs) increased by 2.3% year-over-year for a post-Great Recession high. The 2% threshold is key because thats the Federal Reserves stated inflation target.

Several regional presidents of the central bank have been warning of rising prices, most recently John Williams of the San Francisco branch, and their caveats on inflation have become all the more imperative given Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellens overtly dovish speech before the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday.

The recent data reinforce my expectation that inflation is on track to move back to 2% over the next two years, Williams said in Singapore this week.

Oil could light inflationary fire: Some big investment firms also are issuing analyses urging clients not to underestimate inflation. It is naveto ignore the potential risk that themarket could be surprised by higherinflation rates, wrote Investec Asset Managements Philip Saunders.

Our modelssuggest inflation and wages will befirm going forward and our commodityteam believes that robust oil demandand a material decline in oil supply willprovide support to the oil price.

If thereis a more sustained oil price recovery,consistent with our commodity teamsforecast of approximately US$60 perbarrel, there is a meaningful risk thatinflation could even overshoot to theupside.

Gold, TIPS for diversifiers: And the Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO, also told its clients that inflation could be back on the move, with strategist Anthony Crescenzi recommending Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, to offset rising prices. Markets are not fully priced for this reflation idea, he said.

But TIPS arent the only weapon against inflation. Capital Economics has attributed golds 16% rise this year at least partially to growing inflation expectations.

BlackRock also thinks gold is a good bet. Stabilizing oil prices and a tighter labor market could contribute to rising actual, and expected, U.S. inflation, said its global chief investment strategist, Richard Turnill. We like inflation-linked bonds and gold as diversifiers.

Stagflation nightmare ahead?: Of course, there is another potential end result besides inflation or deflation (recession), and thats stagflation, in which rising prices co-exist with slow growth and high unemployment. The U.S. suffered from stagflation in the 1970s, and certain similarities exist between then and now.

For one, U.S. growth is relatively stagnant, stuck in the 2% range or even lower, according to the latest quarterly forecast from the Atlanta Fed. And while the official unemployment rate is 4.9%, the labor-participation rate is near record lows, with 102.5 million working-age Americans currently lacking a job.

Stagflation is on the radar of Bank of America, which recently issued a note saying clients should at least prepare for that eventuality.

While it is not our base case, investors may want to hedge the tail risk of the economy experiencing elements of stagflation realized as rising inflation during stagnating growth, noted BofAs global rates and currencies research team.

Gold outperforms in stagflation: So how should investors prepare for this eventuality? MarketWatch wrote in summarizing the note. According to Bank of Americas historical analysis of market trends, gold, oil and U.S. Treasurys tend to outperform during periods of stagflation, while equities tend to underperform.

So equity bulls, beware: If first-quarter GDP disappoints, as Bank of America expects, one might want to consider buying gold or Treasurys as a hedge.

Given that several current U.S. GDP estimates are running at under 1%, maybe Bank of America is onto something. In any case, should the Fed err and overshoot its 2% inflation target, investors might be happy that they prepared with gold and silver bullion plus rare coins.

Gold rebounded from one-month lows Tuesday after Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen pulled off the unthinkable: issuing an even more dovish speech to the Economic Club of New York than her comments after the Feds March meeting.

Earlier Tuesday, an S&P/Case-Shiller housing-price index got the ball rolling for gold by posting a 5.4% increase for the 12 months ended in January. Why was gold affected? Because rising home prices are the latest indicator that inflation is surfacing in the U.S., and gold is a traditional inflation hedge.

Then Yellen began her speech, and it appears that even the Fed chief herself doesnt know when the next interest-rate hike could be coming. Only gradual increases in the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted in coming years due to economic uncertainties, she said.

Proceed cautiously, Yellen says: Her dovish message flew in the face of recent hawkish comments by several Fed presidents urging more tightening this year.

I consider it appropriate for the committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy, Yellen said, citing risks from global developments. This caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMCs ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric.

Although Yellen didnt discuss negative interest rates as a potential policy tool, she hinted that more quantitative easing might be on the table if necessary, saying the Fed could increase the size or duration of our holdings of long-term securities.

While these tools may entail some risks and costs that do not apply to the federal funds rate, we used them effectively to strengthen the recovery from the Great Recession, and we would do so again if needed, she said.

Yellen unsure if inflation has legs: One of those risks is inflation, and on that subject Yellen was vague in commenting on the recent uptick in the core Consumer Price Index. It is too early to tell if this recent faster pace will prove durable, Yellen said.

Yellen has doubled down on the dovishness from the March statement and press conference, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research told Bloomberg. Global economic developments are cited very prominently.

As a result, gold soared 1.4% to hit $1,238, up from Mondays one-month low near $1,208. In late-afternoon trading the price had topped $1,240. Meanwhile, silver was up 0.7% at $15.326 and moving higher in after-hours trading.

“It looks like we may be pricing back in just one interest rate hike. That’s why we’re rallying,” Phillip Streible of R.J. O’Brien told Reuters, while Warwick Valley Financial Advisors President Ken Ford told MarketWatch, From a longer-term-trend perspective, gold may have turned the corner.

Time will tell whether gold can maintain Tuesdays advance, but with the central bank already crawfishing on its rate-hike pace, the odds are with the yellow metal.

To be honest, gold hadnt done much since flirting with the $1,270 level a couple of weeks go. But investors with any sense of golds seasonal patterns will know that March historically has never been a strong month for the yellow metal.

Why? Because the Asian holiday buying that traditionally propels gold higher in January and early February tends to wane after the Lunar New Year holiday, which the Chinese celebrate by purchasing huge quantities of gold jewelry, bars, and coins. This years Lunar New Year peaked on Feb. 8, around the same time that the U.S. stock market hit its lows for the year.

Strong spring rally ahead?: Lunar New Year gold buying is what U.S. Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes has described as The Love Trade, in which gold is accumulated for its festive attributes. Other Love Trade periods include the end of Ramadan in Muslim cultures; Indias Diwali festival; and Judeo-Christianitys Christmas and Hanukkah traditions.

With the Lunar New Years Love Trade over for 2016, accompanied by some renewed momentum in U.S. stocks, its no surprise that gold has eased back from its highs. And yet it remains up about 17% and is still one of this years best-performing assets.

March usually vies with June for the worst month in terms of gold-price performance. Writing about mining equities, Adam Hamilton of Zeal Research might just as well have been speaking of gold bullion when he noted, The red-hot gold stocks have spent most of March in consolidation mode, grinding sideways near their 2016 highs.Interestingly this months rally pause is par for the course seasonally in gold-stock bull markets.Like gold itself, this sector tends to slump to a seasonal low in mid-March before embarking on a strong spring rally in April and May.

Strongest February on record: This correction should not be unexpected, therefore. There are certainly reasons to think that gold could correct, wrote noted gold expert Adrian Day. After all, we have seen a very strong rally, with the strongest February on record; it would be foolhardy to expect that to continue without a pause. The first quarter is seasonally strong, with the April to June period typically soft. Moreover, the speculative net-long positions on the COMEX have increased vastly in recent months, and thus are vulnerable to profit taking.

In fact, current bearish commercial positioning on the gold futures market suggests that further weakness could lie ahead.

Given golds huge bull-market resurgence in 2016 and its well-known seasonal pullback pattern, what should investors do now? Buy the dips, of course. Low interest rates, a dovish Federal Reserve, a peaking dollar, stock-market volatility, and ongoing inflows into precious-metals ETFs all suggest that gold could be set to resume its run higher on any number of catalysts.

I suspect there will be a pullback in the weeks ahead, but it is likely to be shallower and shorter than normal seasonal corrections, certainly than those of the past couple of years, Day added. And after this pullback, gold will recover to move higher this year. We have seen the lows in the long gold bear-market (or super-cycle bull correction, which is how I prefer to view it).

China, Russia seize the dip: Investors around the globe with a longer-term view are indeed buying the pullbacks. The Wall Street Journal just published a March 28 story titled Chinese investors see golden opportunity.

Chinese investors have been snapping up gold bars and coins, overshadowing the usual purchases of gold jewelry and contributing to the metals price rise of 16% from six-year lows in December, it reported. The uncertainty confronting global economies has driven up demand from a different sort of buyer the hard-nosed investor.

Moreover, mainland Chinas bullion imports from Hong Kong are showing signs of recovery.

Russia also is buying on the sovereign level, with the IMF reporting that Moscows central bank bought 356,000 ounces of gold in February to become the largest buyer of the precious metal among the world’s central banks, according to RT.

Silver ETF inflows at 2-year highs: Silver ETF inflows also remain strong despite the slowdown in the metals sector. Investors are buying silver through funds at the fastest pace in more than two years even as prices drop to the lowest in almost a month, Bloomberg reported.

Holdings in silver-backed exchange-traded products jumped 845.6 metric tons in March, heading for the biggest monthly increase since August 2013.

Longer-horizon investors might do well to stick with the same philosophy of buying low now to bank on higher returns later. Though no guarantee of future price performance, golds past seasonal patterns confirm that we shouldnt be surprised by its current pullback nor by more moves higher as the year progresses.

In the wake of a Federal Reserve meeting last week that Goldman Sachs characterized as the most dovish in years, several of the banks regional presidents have made hawkish public statements this week. The end result: The dollar has strengthened, and gold has fallen back to one-month lows near $1,220.

St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard declared that an interest-rate hike could be on the table at the April meeting, while new Philadelphia branch President Patrick Harker said that we need to get on with it.

Recession-like data piling up: These hawkish messages just a week after the Fed scaled back its rate-hike pace from four to two led CNBC to wonder whether Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen might have a mini revolt on her hands.

But the new tough talking on rate hikes looks all for naught. Fresh home-sales data out Wednesday suggest the real-estate market is losing momentum; while a contractionary Markit services PMI report issued Thursday shows that the U.S. economy is going through its worst growth spell for three and a half years … and the worst may be to come as the greatest concern is the near-stalling of new business growth. And even more devastating was a February durable-goods orders report that dropped 2.8%, down for the third time in four months, with core orders extending a 13-month losing streak the longest streak in the history of the series with no recession, Zero Hedge noted.

Gradual pace to support gold: As a result, the Atlanta Fed was forced to downgrade its projection for U.S. growth, putting current GDP at 1.4%, down from an earlier 1.9% estimate. Is declining growth the type of environment in which the Fed can afford to hike rates?

The conflicting back-and-forth among Fed officials appears to be just more razzle dazzle. The Fed comments put a bit of pressure on the gold price but are unlikely to derail a more positive long-term sentiment towards the metal, ABN Amros Georgette Boele told Reuters. If there was a massive rate hike and a jump in the dollar, it would be very difficult for gold to move higher, but any rate increase will be gradual.

ETF holdings still at 2-year highs: Although the media pundits are calling golds drop this week a sign that bullions momentum is fading, the statistics tell otherwise. Bloomberg reported that money is still flowing into gold ETFs and that holdings remain near two-year highs. Its peculiar that ETFs were net buyers even as prices dropped, but the narrative has shifted and remains more supportive for gold, said Bernard Dahdah of Natixis SA.

And on the physical side, Australias Perth Mint, which manufactures the popular gold Kangaroo coin and other bullion products, just reported record profits for the past half year.

Kiyosaki touts gold, silver as shelter: Its only natural that gold prices might dip and consolidate after a roughly 20% run-up in the first two months of the year. The current pullback represents a buying opportunity, and for famed Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki, precious metals offer protection from the 2016 crash that he predicted back in 2002. Were right on schedule, he told MarketWatch in a recent interview.

Kiyosaki wrote in 2002 that the initial wave of retiring baby boomers would strain the retirement system by taking their first required distributions this year en masse.

Kiyosaki is sticking to his guns, saying that Chinas current financial crisis, as well as the Feds trillions in quantitative easing, have set up the conditions for a larger collapse.

The financial expert is urging investors to build a financial ark with gold and silver because the Fed will be forced to print even more money to prop up the markets.

The recent dip back into the $1,220 range for gold (and near $15.20 for silver) offers a tactical opportunity for investors to build the financial ark that Kiyosaki is recommending. HSBC is predicting $1,300 gold by years end, while other analysts see the price going as high as $1,450. Buy low now to sell higher later.

One of the worlds major sovereign producers of gold and silver coins and bullion, the Perth Mint, is reporting record profits for the past two quarters.

The driver? China. In terms of gold bars, cast bars that we are selling, a lot of that is going into Asia, primarily into China, CEO Richard Hayes asserted.

The Chinese remain very, very big buyers of bullion, mainly because they are pretty long U.S. dollars and one of the ways to diversify out of that is to swap those U.S. dollars into gold.

Paper holdings still dwarf gold stash: Thats true on the sovereign level, with Chinas officially reported reserves now at 1,762 tons, the sixth-largest bullion holdings in the world, although some experts think Beijing is vastly underreporting the true size of its gold stash. Moreover, China still has to play a major catchup game in order to boost its gold reserves to a level appropriate enough to back up its roughly $3.2 trillion in foreign-currency reserves.

Gold for heavyweight status: Chinese officials apparently have adopted the philosophy that if youre going to be a heavyweight, you need some heavy metal, noted University of Georgia historian Stephen Mihm in a March 17 Bloomberg op-ed titled Why Canada is dumping gold and China isnt.

A traditional gold-import center for China remains Hong Kong, but as analyst Lawrie Williams has observed, the mainland is increasingly importing gold directly from locales such as Switzerland, completely bypassing Hong Kong in favor of its growing gold hub of Shanghai. (Maybe some of Venezuelas recent gold exports to Switzerland will be finding their way to Asia.)

Cash fleeing China into gold: And its not only Chinas leaders who are trying to get out of U.S. dollars its citizens are trying to elude Chinas own capital controls.

Commenting on a recent Wall Street Journal article titled China, fighting money exodus, squeezes business, CNBC star Jim Cramer commented: The big takeaway from this piece is buy gold, buy gold, buy gold. Why? Because I think a lot of the money thats fleeing China is going into gold. If youre a Chinese investor worried about a slowing economy coupled with a currency that keeps getting devalued, you want to hide your cash in a hard asset thats good at retaining its value in times of economic chaos.

Imports up 1,000% since 2010: Although Chinas major gold-buying holiday, the Lunar New Year, ended in February, its overall demand trend line remains upward, hence the Perth Mints record profits. Chinese imports of gold since 2010 are up more than 1,000%, Bloomberg precious-metals analyst Ken Hoffman noted on March 22.

Thats a whole lot of gold, and that could mean a whole lot more profit reporting at the Perth Mint in years to come.

Asked about Chinas end game regarding gold, author Willem Middelkoop told The Epoch Times: They have a longer-term plan in which gold plays a more prominent role.

They are planning for the next phase of the financial system where gold plays are a more dominant part of the system. I think the Chinese think gold prices will go much higher.

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellens Keynesian credentials are plain to see.

A quick Google search of Janet Yellen Keynesian reveals articles such as Janet Yellen: A Keynesian woman at the Fed (New Yorker, April 3, 2013) and Yellen looks toward a Keynesian approach (Reuters, Feb. 13, 2014).

Keynesian economists, of course, favor easy-money policies in the belief that borrowers can spend their way to prosperity and out of recessions if only central banks keep the monetary spigots flowing and governments provide social and infrastructural programs financed through taxes and government bonds.

While the Fed is purportedly a neutral, independent agency immune from the hue and cry of partisan politicking, an analysis of the campaign contributions of the central banks employees shows that they are indeed voting with their pocketbooks largely in one direction.

Clinton scores biggest Fed donations: A Bloomberg report revealed that as of March 14, Trump hasnt collected a single donation from Fed employees. His GOP rivals did marginally better, with Sen. Ted Cruz getting $2,000 and Sen. Marco Rubio pocketing $750. In contrast, top Democratic contender Hillary Clinton had logged $18,239.

Its no wonder that Trump hasnt received anything from the Fed. On multiple occasions he has accused the central bank of inflating bubbles through artificially low interest rates, maybe even as a favor to President Barack Obama.

The next guy or person who takes over as president could have a real problem, he told Bloomberg, in the form of a recession or worse.

So important to audit the Fed: And even more damaging to his chances of currying favor with these monetary mandarins, Trump also has expressed his support for Audit the Fed legislation. It is so important to audit the Federal Reserve, he tweeted on Feb. 22.

Now New York Post columnist John Crudele has hammered home the obvious inference one can make given the existential threat that an audit poses toward the Fed.

The upcoming election and, especially, the surprising strength of Donald Trump also make it almost impossible for the Fed to boost rates, Crudele wrote on March 24. If Trump gets elected, the Fed will almost immediately be hit by audits that will reveal lots of secret, sinister things.

So Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her fellow central bankers cant do anything like raise the cost of money that might slow the economy down and give Trump a better shot at winning the presidency.

A win-win for gold: Whatever you might think of Trump and numerous analysts say the Republicans presidential policies might actually bloat the national debt, hurt the U.S. corporations via isolationist trade policies, and stoke geopolitical conflict the idea of Clinton winning the presidency cant help but be good for gold.

And the road to electing Clinton, if indeed Crudele is correct in his description of the Feds leanings, means the central bank might well keep in place the low to zero interest-rate policies that have helped pump up the price of gold for most of the past decade.

Presidential election years are often bullish for the yellow metal, and Trumps presence as a serious contender in this race might just up the ante.