Rare coins gained 13% in 2015, says new Knight Frank Wealth Report

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The respected real-estate consultancy Knight Frank has released its 2016 Wealth Report, and the news continues to be bullish for rare coins, but not so bullish in the short-term for ultra-high-net-worth individuals.

Slowing growth trends around the world apparently have affected the number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (or UHNWI) created in 2015, Knight Frank reported. Almost 6,000 people dropped out of the UHNWI wealth bracket in 2015 a 3% slide. This downward shift reflected slower economic growth and the more volatile financial climate, it noted. The rate of global economic growth slowed in 2015, while growth in equity, commodity and other asset prices also decelerated.

First annual UHNWI dip since crisis: A UHNWI is defined as a person with $30 million or more in assets. Meanwhile, the number of plain old millionaires also fell in 2015. Still, Knight Frank expects the populations of UHNWIs and millionaires to grow over the longer term, especially in Asia, but for now the global slowdown has clearly impeded the increase in membership of this exclusive club.

Despite longer-term growth, data from 2015 shows the first annual dip in the global ultra-wealthy population since the financial crisis, Knight Frank researcher Grainne Gilmore said. Last year, only 34 out of the 91 countries for which individual data is compiled saw a rise in the numbers of UHNW individuals.

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Luxury-collectibles index up 7%: As for the investments of the ultra-rich, luxury collectibles continue to draw big money and also provide solid returns. While the major stock indexes around the globe began to struggle for instance, Londons leading index the FTSE 100 fell 5% in 2015 Knight Franks Luxury Investment Index rose by 7% last year. The index tracks the performance of 10 high-end asset types: antique furniture, Chinese ceramics, watches, colored diamonds, jewelry, stamps, art, wine, classic cars, and rare coins.

Classic cars continued to lead the way in 2015, gaining 17% on the year. Numismatic coins, however, grabbed second place with a 13% advance. Fine wines and watches tied for third place, logging 5% increases. Art, which so often grabs headlines about record prices, only managed to yield a 4% rise in 2015, tying with jewelry.

Numismatics return 232% over decade: For the longer term, rare coins solidified their top-tier status among luxury investments by finishing second behind classic cars over a five-year period: Vintage autos returned 162%, while coins gained 92%. And over a 10-year period, coins finished in third place with a 232% increase in value, versus 241% for wine and 490% for classic cars.

The overall Knight Frank luxury index has returned 56% over five years and 200% over the past decade.

Emerging markets to fuel collectibles market: The growing preponderance of low and even negative interest rates worldwide should keep the ultra-rich quite focused on investing in hard assets and high-end collectibles.

Theyre already pouring their money into massive yachts. Sales of luxury vessels longer than 24 meters soared 40% in 2015, according to the Wealth Report.

Overall, the future looks healthy for coins and collectibles in general, especially as incomes grow in China, India, and other parts of Asia. As Knight Frank noted, As individuals in emerging markets become wealthier, we expect to see the number of collectors increase. Not only do collectables represent a safe asset investment, they are a way of illustrating status and a sense of having arrived.

For more information about high-net-worth individuals, including their views about estate planning, philanthropy, and investments of passion, see the full Knight Frank report here.

Gold sprints back to 1-year highs as Wall Street legend charts bullions breakout

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Hitting fresh one-year highs Thursday, gold marched firmly ahead on the eve of Fridays widely watched U.S. employment report for February, known as the nonfarm-payrolls report, or NFP.

Spot gold Thursday blazed a fresh trail to one-year highs above $1,265 in late-afternoon trading, following the lead of the futures contract for April, which earlier reached its highest settlement level since Feb. 5, 2015, MarketWatch reported. Golds counterpart, silver, also gained about 1.4% to touch $15.13 and was moving even higher in the afternoon session.

The news on the U.S. economy continued to look mediocre to bad: U.S. productivity fell 2.2% in the fourth quarter; initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 278,000; the ISM services-sector index beat expectations but still fell; and factory orders rose 1.6% but missed forecasts of a 2% gain.

Dallas Federal Reserve chief Robert Kaplan sounded a note of caution on the economy, urging patience on enacting the next interest-rate hike and also warning that oil-related defaults could cause a negative ripple effect across the financial sector.

Wall Street on average is expecting the jobs number Friday to come in at about 190,000. A disastrous figure could send the yellow metal galloping toward $1,300.

Formidable resistance at $1,550: Golds resurgence has sparked a slew of renewed bullishness and revised forecasts from some high-profile analysts and institutions. Famed Wall Street technician Louise Yamada, who has been bearish on gold for years now, published an optimistic note titled Gold breaks out.

Noting the metals advance above its 200-day moving average, Yamada wrote, If gold retains strength over the days and weeks ahead, price could eventually overcome the sequential peaks at 1,300 (to lift also above the broken 2005 uptrend), as well as 1,350, 1,385 (to address the 2011 downtrend) and 1,440. Moving through these levels would bring price to a position of challenging the two-year formidable resistance at 1,550 (dashed horizontal line) over time. Gold may be able to achieve at least some of these targets over the weeks-to-months ahead.

Bank cites uncertainty in lifting target: And Germanys Commerzbank, which has been relatively bullish during 2016, just raised its price target by $50, setting a year-end price of $1,250.

We believe gold is well supported in the market environment of continued high uncertainty and negative interest rates, it wrote.

And perhaps most notably, JPMorgan analyst Jan Loeys revealed the investment bank is now underweight (UW) stocks and is overweight (OW) gold.

The fundamentals of growth, earnings and recession risk have not improved, and if anything have worsened. We remain wary of the near-empty ammo box of policy makers, Loeys wrote.

Recession odds now at 33%: Our 12-month-out U.S. recession odds have risen to 1/3, while equity-implied odds have instead fallen to near 1/5.But even with no recession this year or next, we see U.S. earnings rising only slowly by low single digits and see little to boost multiples. The eventual recession should bring U.S. stocks down some 30%, creating a strong downward risk skew to returns over the next few years.

Our portfolio is now 5% UW Equities, the first UW this cycle. In Commodities, be short gas oil and base metals but OW gold.

With the jobs report out Friday, prepare for potential fireworks across the financial markets. Precious metals could take off on a gloomy number, but be prepared for buying opportunities in bullion if the employment stats surprise to the upside.

Donald Trump: His controversial candidacy good for gold, experts say

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Donald Trumps dominance of the Super Tuesday primaries has all but ensured him the Republican presidential nomination mathematically, anyway. Whether the GOP establishment will contest his ascendancy is another matter altogether.

But what does his potential nomination and/or presidency mean for the financial markets, in particular, gold.

The clearest answer yet is: We dont know. Love him or hate him, Trump has supported the positions of both the Republican and the Democratic parties over the decades. And what that boils down to for 2016 and beyond is uncertainty, which almost always is good for gold.

Moreover, if the GOP self-destructs because of its leaderships rejection of Trumps candidacy, or if Trump soldiers on as a third-party trailblazer, that implosion and resulting turmoil also could help bullion prices.

Uncertainty not yet priced in: Commenting on the outsider candidacies of Trump and his Democratic counterpart, Bernie Sanders, top Allianz adviser and former Pimco boss Mohamed El-Erian noted that the emergence of these nontraditional parties, the anti-establishment parties, adds to uncertainty. Markets in the U.S. havent priced that yet; it is a new phenomenon. It hasnt been priced in yet, but I think that there is an uncertainty premium that is going to come from the political side.

Trumps critics despise his bombastic, antagonistic approach, and the idea that his finger will be on the nuclear button as the U.S. confronts threats ranging from Russia to ISIS is making many people frightened, justified or not.

The Wall Street Journals MoneyBeat blog also weighed in on the issue in a post titled Trumps ascendance could be good for gold. The post cited the possibility that that nervous investors could pile in to gold and other safe-haven assets as an insurance policy.

J.P. Morgan Asset Managements James Sutton explained, If theres any uncertainty regarding the U.S. election and the potential for a slightly off-center candidate, whether that be Sanders or Trump winning the election, then I can see a scenario where thats bad for the dollar.

Critics say Trump will run up the debt: Financial journalist Brett Arends, who works for The Wall Street Journal as well, also said Trumps rise could boost the yellow metal, thanks to the billionaires vow to engage in trade wars with China and other nations, as well as a spending plan that reportedly will add trillions to the budget deficit.

Arends cites a study by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, which projected that his proposed tax breaks, unless accompanied by very large spending cuts could increase the national debt by nearly 80% of gross domestic product by 2036.

A similar analysis by The Tax Foundation concluded that Trumps tax plan would greatly increase the U.S. economys size in the long run while also boosting the governments deficit by $10 trillion over a decade.

As a result, of this anticipated red ink Arends concludes: Trumps stated policies point toward massive deficits, more U.S. unilateralism, policy uncertainty, and global trade and currency wars. His (Super Tuesday) victory last night ought logically to be bearish for stocks and bonds, and bullish for bullion. We shall see.

Tax reforms could boost U.S. businesses: Other experts, such as Commerzbank, say Trumps candidacy will be a nonissue for gold, giving more importance to movements in bullion-linked ETFs and the federal funds rate.

Still others predict that business could potentially boom under Trump. Stocks will go straight up, OLeary Financial Group Chairman Kevin OLeary told CNBC.

OLeary thinks that Trump will ride a wave of populist anger against the government into the White House and that his proposed reforms of the tax code will give U.S. businesses the edge they have been lacking for quite some time.

However, OLeary argues that once in office, Trump will find that cooler heads will prevail and rein in some of his more controversial plans, such as building a wall along Mexicos border.

Stocks tend to fall in election years: Once again, we dont know whats Trumps possible election will do to markets, but history shows that presidential turnovers can affect financial markets. In the election year itself, the market tends to fall, especially in the final year of a presidents second term, noted Trevir Nath.

Hiccups in equities also can occur later. Economist Yale Hirschs presidential election cycle theory has found that U.S. stock markets are weakest in the year following the election of a new U.S. president.

The jury is still out on the nuts and bolts of Trumps policies, but his unpredictable, anti-establishment candidacy is making many people nervous. Thats good for gold. Likewise, the potential election of Democrats big-government candidate, Hillary Clinton, also could benefit precious metals. The true conservative investing approach amid this election-year uncertainty is to prepare for any contingency and remain prudently invested in both bullion and rare coins.

Rare Coins: A Proven Solution To Wealth Preservation And Estate Planning In The Post-Great Recession Reality

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Estate planning has been a growth industry for more than a decade, fueled by rising concerns by potential clients about preserving wealth for a comfortable retirement and building a legacy for their heirs. Especially perplexing for many who thought they had a good plan, new regulations and changing rules collided with the Great Recession. As a result, the retirement plans of the leading edge of Baby Boomers (anyone born between 1946 and 1964), and all those who are waiting in the wings, have been disrupted, and their game plans going forward are being re-examined.

Given the enormous amount of monetary stimulus already in place in the U.S.; the global stimulus that is accompanying the resolution of the debt crisis in European countries, including Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal; as well as the Feds outlook for interest rates, investors face serious questions about the best portfolio strategies to pursue to preserve wealth in coming years.

It is striking that the typical investment advice provided over the past few years has been driven by simulations and statistical analyses that are predicated, at least implicitly, on the notion that the Great Recession was more or less a run-ofthe-mill recession, akin perhaps to a bad case of the flu, and that the pattern of financial returns over the next three to five years and beyond will be more or less the same as before the Great Recession. Put more directly, the resulting financial advice from 2012 up until today looks much like it did in 2006, albeit with warnings to reduce the annual withdrawals from standard portfolios for retirement spending from 5%-6% to 3%-4%. We are not supposed to notice the not-so-subtle dangers in the form of low returns on CDs and the historically low level of interest rates on Treasury bills, notes, and bonds all staples of conservative portfolios.

If, instead, the Great Recession was more than a mild stroke and therefore will have some lasting effects on financial relationships, then the knowledge required for the successful preservation of wealth needs to include some rethinking of previous norms. Put more vividly, investment strategies should be stress-tested in ways that transcend the rosy scenarios embedded in many portfolio recommendations.

In the face of such uncertainty, we can offer some wealth-preservation suggestions. In a recent study of the investment performance of stocks, Treasuries, gold, and high-quality rare coins, the following findings are perhaps surprising but important:

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Table 1
Correlation of Returns with Inflation (1979-2015)

Stocks .19
Treasury Bonds -.21
Gold .24
Rare Coins .60

Note: +1.0 is a perfect positive correlation, meaning asset returns move exactly in tandem with inflation; to hedge against inflation, the highest positive correlation is best.
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First, the contention that gold is a better hedge against inflation than, say, rare coins, is not supported by the data. That said, gold is far superior to Treasury bonds. Second, if we use measures of stock-market volatility or the volatility of GDP as proxies for financial-market uncertainty, the same result holds: Gold provides some portfolio insurance, but coins have proven to be a better long-run hedge over the past 30 years or so.

Lets remember what the turbulent 1987-2011 period covers: the 1987 and 1989 stock-market crashes, the dot-com collapse, 9/11 and the subsequent recession, and the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession. The above study took hypothetical portfolios containing stocks, Treasury bonds and bills, and proportions of gold and rare coins ranging from zero to 10% and stress tested them against portfolios consisting of 33.3% each of stocks, bonds, and bills what most experts would call a very conservative asset allocation and portfolios consisting of 50% stocks, 25% bonds, and 25% Treasury bills.

The results are robust across many alternative experiments. They show that the annual average volatility of portfolios with modest proportions of coins and/or gold is generally reduced by 10% to 15%, with the average annual portfolio return remaining around 7.3% to 8%. Such a risk-return profile would provide significant insulation for ones wealth and legacy against the stormy weather on the horizon.

Gold defies solid ADP jobs report as new experts predict $1,350 and higher

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Although stuck in a trading range between $1,220 and $1,250 for the past week, gold defied expectations by rising in the face of a positive jobs report Wednesday and that bodes well for this Fridays potentially bombshell February employment number.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on Wednesday issued its private-payrolls report for February, and it beat forecasts with a print of 214,000 jobs created versus 185,000 expected.

Fridays jobs data could move markets: Although gold initially dipped, the yellow metal soon bounced back to top $1,240 for the session. That rebound is significant because ordinarily a positive ADP report would raise the likelihood of a good U.S. nonfarm-payrolls number this Friday. A good jobs number Friday in turn would up the odds of another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase at its March meeting, since the central bank has said it would lift rates as the employment picture brightens. Higher rates are generally seen as a headwind for bullion prices.

So golds resilient performance tells us that there is so much economic uncertainty on the horizon that bullion is either discounting a rate hike in March or else isn’t concerned by the prospect of one. Such unpredictability has been a hallmark of golds upside performance so far in 2016.

A solid jobs report Friday could still stymie golds advance, but with the growing prospect of negative interest rates spreading from Japan and Europe into the U.S., investors should consider using any such dip as a buying opportunity.

Bleak outlook for global, U.S. economies: Other news out Wednesday has bolstered the case for gold. The Feds Beige Book struck a downbeat tone, with none of the banks 12 districts reporting any dramatic improvements in the economy for the start of 2016. An announcement from Exxon that its cutting its capital-spending budget by 25% (or $23 billion) reinforced the notion that falling oil prices aren’t necessarily good for the economy, with Zero Hedge predicting a big hit to GDP in the U.S.

Globally, world trade is in its biggest slump since the financial crisis, the Financial Times reported, and manufacturing around the globe is in similar doldrums. And China isn’t climbing out of its hole anytime soon either, according to Moody’s, which downgraded the nations credit rating from stable to negative.

Without credible and efficient reforms, China’s GDP growth would slow more markedly as a high debt burden dampens business investment and demographics turn increasingly unfavorable, it said. Government debt would increase more sharply than we currently expect.

Firm sees 13% gain for gold: One expert who called the bottom in gold in November 2015 is now expecting a sizeable advance from current levels, according to MarketWatch. I am looking for prices to continue to firm, predicted George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors. For several years the top of the trading range for gold has been around $1,300 to $1,350, and I would look to see gold approach that area this year. We could go higher if the speculative money starts to flow back into gold in any size.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Taurus Wealth Advisors of Singapore sees bullion running even higher this year to $1,400. That would be a roughly 13% gain from current levels and a 32% rise for 2016.

Why is Taurus bullish? Gold is the ultimate beneficiary when central banks run out of ammunition’and more stimulus and negative interest increasingly become counterproductive, said strategist Rainer Michael Preiss

The Fed might have two more interest rate hikes in store potentially, but even in such an environment gold could hold up and even rally further as the market narrative is changing, said Preiss. Long gold might be the best macro trade to the upside for 2016 and beyond.

$5 billion added to ETFs last month: With physical gold and silver purchases from the U.S. Mint already strong, ETF inflows also continue to increase. The two largest gold-linked ETFs snagged $5.073 billion in new investment capital for the month of February. The last time flows were higher, the S&P 500 had fallen more than 18% for the year and the U.S. Federal Reserve was just three months into its first quantitative-easing program, Bloomberg noted.

Those bullion purchases and ETF inflows could be just a drop in the bucket compared with what well potentially see as the new reality of negative interest rates (with its accompanying war on physical cash) seeps into the consciousness of Western investors. Now, therefore, is the time to up the ante on gold allocations.

Gold riding 8-year hot streak of central-bank bullion purchases

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Renewed Western investment in gold via ETFs has been a key factor in the yellow metals success in 2016. In fact, it has represented a sea change for bullion prices. But another supportive trend is ongoing and shows no signs of stopping: Central banks the world over continue to gobble up gold.

And why wouldnt they? With central banks imposing zero and even negative interest rates, thus sparking a race to the bottom in the value of currencies, gold represents a life preserver for nations worried about their foreign-exchange reserves.

Banks buy up almost 600 tons: Central banks have been net buyers of gold for eight years, with Russia, China, and Kazakhstan among the biggest hoarders, Bloomberg recently reported, citing data from the International Monetary Fund that showed that 590 metric tons of metal were purchased in 2015. These institutions are now on a hot streak unseen since 1965.

We saw this 21st-century trend gain even more steam in the past few months. Kazakhstan bought 100,000 more ounces in January in a purchase that maintained a 40-month streak of additions; its reserves stand at 7.2 million ounces, up from 6.2 million a year ago.

Russia also dipped its toes in, adding about 700,000 ounces in January to bring its holdings to 46.2 million.

China buying privately and officially: China, too, has been announcing purchases since last year. China will continue to take advantage of the current low prices for gold by both adding to official reserves and encouraging private gold purchases by its citizens, Gold Newsletter editor Brien Lundin confirmed to MarketWatch.

Despite occasional lulls in action, central banks bought gold with renewed vigor in the second half of 2015, the World Gold Council reported, citing the impetus to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, and most analysts think that wont be changing anytime soon.

We expect further official purchases to continue to be one of several factors supporting the price of gold in the next few years, Simona Gambarini of Capital Economics told Bloomberg, while George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors told MarketWatch: I am expecting demand to remain strong, some small seasonal fluctuations aside, because while todays prices are higher than 2015, they are still considerably lower than four or five years ago.

Reinforcing golds credentials: Central-bank buying is just one piece in an ongoing perfect storm for gold in 2016. Official sector purchases, combined with strength in the Asian markets and continuing momentum in the U.S. and Europe, reinforced golds credentials as a portfolio diversifier, a wealth preservation tool and a hedge against a range of risks, the gold councils Alistair Hewitt asserted in conjunction with the release of the WGCs most recent Gold Trends Report.

Renewed ETF inflows in the West, continuing Asian demand, sinking expectations for interest rates across the globe, Chinas slowing economy and growing debt, plummeting oil prices, unexpected weakness in the U.S. dollar its all coming together for gold in 2016, and central-bank purchases will add long-term support.

Gold, silver still top of the 2016 heap as Greenspan warns of huge unknowns

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February is over, and gold and silver once again have proven their mettle as some of the best investments so far in 2016.

Gold gained more than 10% in February to rack up a roughly 17% advance for the year so far until Tuesdays profit-taking pullback. That was its best monthly performance since 2012. Silver, meanwhile, rose by more than 4% in February and has yielded an 8% increase in 2016.

 

Gold has been the biggest story of this year, USAA fund manager Dan Denbow told Bloomberg. Last summer, people were calling it a barbaric relic, and nobody could care less about gold. Now, its slowly generating more and more buying.

U.S. growth under 3% for a decade: Gold dipped back near $1,230 on Tuesday after the Institute for Supply Managements manufacturing report contracted less than expected in February, while construction spending rose to the highest level since October 2007.

However, contrast that relatively positive news with Mondays data: A key Chicago business barometer plunged to 47.6 in February, signaling a contraction; the latest Dallas Federal Reserves economic report missed expectations for the 17th month in a row and has been in contraction for 14 straight months; and pending home sales fell by 2.5% in January.

Although the U.S. economy is one of the brighter lights in the world, it has managed to spend the past decade with a growth rate below 3%. In the meantime, its debt levels continue to explode.

Entitlements killing productivity: No wonder so many people are turning to precious metals. Citi recent repeated its prediction that a recession is on the way, joined by Wells Fargo, while the IMF said last week that the global economy is highly vulnerable to adverse shocks.

Even former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan admitted he is uncertain about the future.

Its hard to see where it goes from here, he told Bloomberg. There are so many huge unknowns. In my experience Ive never seen this many unknowns.

Asked whether he is optimistic going forward, Greenspan replied: No. I haven’t been for quite awhile. And I won’t be until we can resolve the entitlement problems. Nobody wants to touch it, but its gradually crowding out capital investment, and that’s crowding out productivity, and that’s crowding out the standards of living. Where do you want me to go from there?

6 reasons to buy gold in 2016: Many are going to gold. Evergreen Gavekal recently presented six reasons why investors should buy gold in 2016:

  1. Technical trading patterns suggest gold may finally be breaking out into a bull market (we do caution, however, that it appears to be temporarily over-bought).
  2. Gold remains out of favor despite the recent rally.
  3. The Feds ability to hike nominal interest rates is constrained.
  4. The overpriced U.S. dollar has limited room to run.
  5. Real interest rates are heading lower around the world as central banks get creative.
  6. Physical gold may be difficult to acquire in the coming years.

With even The Maestro, Alan Greenspan, unclear on the economy’s direction, the answer is clear for investors seeking shelter: precious metals.

Silver American Eagle coin sales blitz to all-time February record

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A Feb. 26 CoinWeek article headline posed the question, Are gold coins driving buying momentum? Judging by the U.S. Mints February sales figures, the answer is leaning toward yes.

Although gold is outshining silver this year, finishing the month up more than 10% to add to its 6% gain in January, the Mints 2016 silver American Eagle sales have smashed yet another record. Sales hit 4,782,000 for the month, making it the best-performing February in Mint history and the 11th-highest month ever.

On pace for another annual record: Almost 11 million silver Eagles have been purchased in 2016, and if this pace continues, the sales record of 47 million set last year could well be shattered.

Although totals dipped by 20% from this past Januarys 5,954,500 tally, sales exploded by 58% versus those in February 2015. The sales totals are all the more amazing considering that the Mint continues to ration silver Eagles on a weekly basis, allocating a maximum number of coins (usually around 1 million) to wholesalers because of a shortage of planchets, or coin blanks.

Gold Eagle sales quadruple year over year: Gold American Eagles also are in hot demand. The Mint reported that 83,500 ounces of the 2016 issues were sold in February. Thats down 33% versus the prior month but up more than 350% over the 18,500 ounces purchased in February 2015. For the year so far, sales total 207,500 ounces for a 108.5% increase from the 99,500 ounces sold during the first two months of last year, Coin News reported.

The Mints other gold bullion coin, the gold Buffalo, followed a similar pattern: February saw 19,000 ounces sold, down about 44% versus Januarys 34,000-ounce total but up more than 58% versus February 2015s sales.

Singapore firms sales doubling monthly: And its not just the U.S. Mint reporting massive interest in metals. Check out this recent CNBC interview with Raphael Scherer, a chief international officer at Degussa. Our subsidiary here in Singapore is doubling their sales numbers almost every month now, he said. Buyers come from almost every place in the world. Theyre buying in particular the investment products like bullion and coins, kilo bars, Krugerrands, Maple Leafs, mainly investment products. Our forecast is going above $1,300 going toward $1,400 by the end of this year.

Thus, while gold ETF inflows have helped power the yellow metal into bullish territory, so too have coin sales.

Gold-silver ratio zooming higher: And its no wonder that some investors are piling into silver. The gold-silver ratio recently crossed above 83, its highest level since 2008, meaning that it takes about 83 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.

Some see that as a sign that silver is undervalued. Its also a testament to golds allure as a safe haven amid 2016s multiple uncertainties.

Gold is showing the way higher for silver, wrote Jesses Amricain Caf. The gold/silver ratio is hovering around 80 which indicates either a secular squeeze in physical gold and/or a risk related flight to safety.

Silver is half precious metal, half industrial metal, and it hasnt been the safety play that gold has, Optionsellers.com founder James Cordier told Bloomberg. Gold certainly has done extremely well with uncertainty around the world and with the idea that interest rates wont be rising. Until global growth comes up, the gold-silver ratio will continue to widen.

Buying silver with the gold/silver ratio at 80 is like buying gold on steroids, added Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics.

Precious metals remain the safety play of 2016, as evidenced by physical coin and bar sales. Pick your poison, gold and/or silver. But right now, silver offers a cheap entry price, especially for those who think gold has risen too quickly in recent weeks.

Gold miners tout metals prospects as bull awakens in 2016

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Golds fortunes have turned around in 2016, and likewise, the miners that produce the yellow metal also are seeing their stocks rise.

BMO Capital Markets this week hosted the 25th Global Metals and Mining Conference in Hollywood, Fla., where several top industry executives weighed in on golds prospects going forward.

The fundamentals which keep the price of gold up havent changed, whether its jewelry demand, whether its fear about uncertainty and also potentially negative interest rates, which are what people are talking about, and thats given the good support to the gold price, Anglogold Ashanti CEO Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan told CNBC on Monday.

A lot of people moving into gold: Negative interest rates, which are currently in force in Japan and several parts of Europe, will continue to boost gold, especially if the Federal Reserve follows suit. Gold will go up simply because youre actually getting benefit by keeping physical gold or gold equities, he said. They appreciate, as compared to the other classes of investments. And thats the thesis behind it. And youre starting to see a lot of people moving in that direction and funds coming into gold funds.

From the supply standpoint, companies have been pulling back on their expansion and exploration plans, he noted. What you will certainly see is a decline in gold production coming, and it takes about 10 to 13 years for a new gold project to take off. So you will see that supply being squeezed, he said.

For Venkatakrishnan, the cycle is now turning in golds favor, though it wont always be smooth sailing. The four-year bear run in the gold market has to unwind at some stage, and youre starting to see gold position itself very well to basically get the uptick, so Im not convinced its a short-term trend which youre seeing, but there could be volatility, certainly through 2016.

Mine supply to drop by 17%: And Newmont Mining chief Gary Goldberg also outlined a bullish case for gold, concentrating on simple supply-and-demand fundamentals. Fundamentals for the medium to long term are good for gold when you look at both the supply and the demand side, he told CNBC.

On the supply side, people havent been investing in new gold mines. You havent had the investment in exploration. You expect new mine supply to drop by about 17% over the next five years. Demand is still strong. Asia is still the major place where gold goes. Half the gold is consumed in China and India. With the middle class in China going from 300 million to 500 million, India moving to 500 million by 2025 thats all good for gold.

Very positive thanks to negative rates: The Fed will continue to play a key role as well in golds direction, especially if it backs off its plans to raise interest rates as many as four times this year. Over the last couple of weeks, whats happened? Youve had a lot of uncertainty; youve had the Fed finally raise interest rates, which I think dampened the price of gold last year youve finally seen that come off over the last couple of months.

And if the Fed caves and goes negative on rates, I think thats a very positive thing for gold, Goldberg commented.

The grim outlook that miners were facing a year ago has dissipated somewhat for now thanks to the tailwind of higher bullion prices. Playing the mining stocks can add alpha to your gold bets, but like most any investments, dont bet the whole hog. Endless variables from energy and labor costs to disease, war, and environmental regulations can disrupt mining operations and gouge stock values. Therefore, make sure your core gold holding is in the metal itself: physical, tangible gold, plus silver bullion and rare coins.

Gold logs best month since 2012, gets major push from Deutsche Bank, Citi

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Gold stumbled Friday after the fourth-quarter U.S. GDP estimate surprised to the upside, but it just logged its best month since at least 2012.

Gold is up about up 9% in February alone, and volumes on the biggest futures exchange, the Comex, jumped to their highest level ever confirming that investor interest is massive.

Gold-silver ratio soars: The gold-silver ratio also has zoomed above 80, its highest level since at least 2008, suggesting either a secular squeeze in physical gold and/or a risk related flight to safety, noted one analyst.

Its just pure risk and fear thats driving gold, UBS exec Wayne Gordon told Bloomberg. People are unduly worried about a sizable depreciation of the Chinese yuan, people are concerned about European credit, and people are worried about a U.S. recession.

The metal also continues to draw outspoken support from some high-profile corners.

Time to buy golden insurance: Deutsche Bank is the latest major financial institution to issue a bullish take on gold a stance that is no surprise given that its chief U.S. economist, Joe Lavorgna, has been predicting a recession for a while now. In a new note, it urged investors to buy bullion for financial insurance.

There are rising stresses in the global financial system; in particular the rising risk of a U.S. corporate default cycle and the risk of a sharp one-off renminbi devaluation due to the sharp increase in Chinas capital outflows, it said. Buying some gold as insurance is warranted.

A bit like insurance, which is often a grudge purchase for many, some investors may balk at the current levels, it said. We would, however, argue that given the plethora of negative deposit rates globally, the holding cost of gold is now negligible in many jurisdictions, and therefore gold deserves to be trading at elevated levels versus many other assets.

We think the (economic) risks are to the downside. Gold has tended to underperform in an environment of strong global growth, so whilst not an outright tailwind, slowing growth certainly eases the pressure on gold, it concluded.

Gold to trump cash in portfolios: Deutsche isnt alone. Citis global asset allocation team also has come out swinging for gold, touting its overweight stance and declaring that has gone even longer on precious metals.

To balance the portfolio, cash goes to underweight in a negative rate world gold may replace cash in portfolios, the team said.

Meanwhile, another financial behemoth, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, confirmed Thursday that gold funds accumulated their largest inflows since 2009 and equity funds posted their longest run of outflows since 2008 in the last week as financial market turmoil continued to unnerve investors, Reuters reported.

$5.8 billion into gold over 3 weeks: Through Feb. 24, $2.6 billion was invested into gold funds, bringing the three-week total to $5.8 billion, the most money since June 2009.

Inflows have coincided with the Fed talking down the U.S. dollar and rising investor fears of recession, the BAML global investment strategy team noted.

With a roughly 16% gain this year, gold is back on the radar of some prominent financial institutions. Investors might do well to take this trend into account in their own portfolios.