Blanchard Index
Exclusive Precious Metals Market Outlook and Recommendations
Index updated June 18, 2025
The Blanchard Monthly Index is a roll-up of industry news and economic trends affecting the precious metals market and trading world.
Check back each month for insights and commentary from our leading experts and contributors.
The Blanchard Economic Report
Market Movers
Precious Metals
Silver jumped to a 13-year high and is steadily climbing, boosted by economic concerns and rising industrial demand. Gold is trading sideways, but remains in a long-term uptrend. Gold is in a holding pattern awaiting fresh developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and U.S. tariff policy.
Stocks
The U.S. stock market traded lower after Israel launched a surprise military attack on Iran’s military and nuclear sites, killing senior commanders and atomic scientists in mid-June. The Trump administration is reportedly considering joining Israel in strikes against Iran, and markets await fresh news on the geopolitical front.
Crude Oil Prices
Oil is climbing in reaction to the military actions in the Middle East, which is an inflationary threat. This month, West Texas Intermediate crude prices have surged by 18% to $73.67.
The U.S. Dollar
Since late January, the U.S. dollar has tumbled 10% against the euro, pound and Swiss franc and has lost value against every major currency. The last time the U.S. dollar fell so fast was in 2010 when the Fed was aggressively printing money in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.
Economists point to several factors driving the U.S. dollar lower, including the across-the-board tariffs that impacted global trade and a push to legislate a new tax bill in Washington that would add to the national debt. Gold typically gains strength as the U.S. dollar weakens.
In the News
Hold Onto Your Gold by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock, 6/18/25, Advisor Perspectives.
Russ explains that gold continues to be an effective store of value over the long-term, particularly in today’s rocky environment of geopolitical uncertainty.
“[Gold] is an effective store of value. This characteristic is particularly important today, as investors wrestle with both record government debt and wrenching changes in international trade. The fact that the dollar is also under significant pressure, only adds to the argument.”
“The growing public debt of the U.S. government is of particular concern. Given the size of U.S. debt markets and the dollar’s reserve currency status, gold prices have historically had a strong relationship with the level of U.S. public debt. As U.S. debt-to-GDP grows, gold typically follows.”
Market Snapshot
Gold/Silver ratio: 90 oz. silver = 1 oz. gold
How to use it: This ratio indicates the number of ounces required to purchase one ounce of gold, and it measures the relative value of these two metals.
- A ratio higher than 80:1 signals that silver is undervalued relative to gold.
- A ratio below 40:1 suggests silver is overvalued.
Market Performance Year-To-Date
- Gold: up 25%
- Platinum up 40%
- Silver: up 24%
- Stocks: S&P 500 up 1.72%
- International Stocks: FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index up 13.25%
 Short-term Trend (using 20-day moving average)
- Gold: Up
- Silver: Up
- S&P 500: Up
Long-term Trend (using 200-day moving average)
- Gold: Up
- Silver: Up
- S&P 500: Up
 Monetary Policy
- Fed funds rate: 4.25-4.50%
- Next Fed meeting: June 17-18
