Blanchard Index
Exclusive Precious Metals Market Outlook and Recommendations
Index updated July 22, 2025
Blanchard's Bi-weekly Index
The Blanchard Bi-weekly Index is a roll-up of industry news and economic trends affecting the precious metals market and trading world.
Check back often for insights and commentary from our leading experts and contributors.
The Blanchard Economic Report
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Market Movers
Economic Update
The housing market is slumping amid economic uncertainty, high home prices and high mortgage rates. In June, U.S. existing home sales fell by 2.7%, more than expected, the National Association of Realtors said. The median home price climbed 2% to a record high at $435,300.
Just for fun
• In 1975, a gold bar = $64,000 bought you a nice house.
• In 2025, a gold bar = $1.3 million still buys you a nice house.
• 1975: $160/oz
• 2025: $3,319/oz
In the News
“The USD is losing its store of value function” and bullion is exceptionally well-placed to benefit, TD Securities senior commodity strategist Dan Ghali said. – Bloomberg, July 21.
Stocks
The U.S. stock market gained on news that the Trump Administration finalized a trade deal with Japan that set reciprocal tariff rates at 15% versus the previously threatened 25% level. Financial advisors are encouraging investors to use the strength in stocks to rebalance portfolios, with many investors taking profits in stocks and re-allocating those assets to the safety of gold.
Key Takeaway
The Trump Administration has set August 1 as the date when most American trading partners will see tariffs ranging from 30-35%. Stock analysts will be watching to see if U.S. corporations are willing to absorb the tariff increases or pass those along to consumers.
Fed Watch
All eyes are on the July 29-30 Federal Reserve meeting. After cutting its key interest rate last year, the central bank has held interest rates steady in 2025 citing concern over the inflationary impact from the Trump administration’s tariff hikes.
Key Takeaway
Wall Street doesn’t expect the Fed to change interest rates at the late July meeting. However, gold gained in recent days after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested he would dissent if his colleagues vote to hold interest rates steady at the upcoming meeting. Waller explained his ideas that an interest rate cut would support the labor market.
President Trump has criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell and said he believes the Fed’s key interest rate should be 3% lower. The U.S. dollar has weakened and gold has climbed as 70% of economists warned in a July Reuters survey that the Fed’s independence is under threat, which could mean higher inflation in the years ahead.
Market Snapshot
Gold/Silver ratio: 86 oz. silver = 1 oz. gold
How to use it: This ratio reveals the number of ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold, and it measures the relative value of these two metals.
- A ratio higher than 80:1 signals that silver is undervalued relative to gold.
- A ratio below 40:1 suggests silver is overvalued.
Market Performance Year-To-Date
- Gold: up 26%
- Platinum: up 58%
- Silver: up 32%
- S&P 500: up 7%
Short-term Trend
- Gold: Up
- Silver: Up
- S&P 500: Up
Long-term Trend
- Gold: Up
- Silver: Up
- S&P 500: Up
Monetary Policy
- Fed funds rate: 4.25-4.50%
- Next Fed meeting: June 29-30
