How Gold Ownership Helps You Control Risk

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Being a Navy SEAL and sniper taught me all about risk management. Take away all the risk variables under your control and reduce it to an acceptableshiny gold bars stacked. level. – Brandon Webb

There are many things you can’t control in your life – the weather, the traffic, the economy, government policies to name a few.

When it comes to investing there is a simple strategy you can control – one that can ultimately protect and grow your wealth.

What is this strategy? Successful investors control their risk.

In finance, there is a relationship between risk and return. In theory, if you are willing to take on greater risk, there is the potential for a bigger return. But, risk also includes the potential to lose some or all of your investment.

Another condition involved in risk – is how readily available your money is to you. Is it liquid, can you access it fast if you need it? An example of an illiquid investment is real estate. It can take months to sell your asset and get access to your money when you need it.

The stock market is defined as a risky asset and one that involves significant volatility. Stocks can lose some or even all of their value if market conditions go south. Yet, investors are willing to take on that stock market risk in hopes of gaining a larger return than from a bond or CD.

When you look at your portfolio – ask yourself – what does a big decline in my investments mean for you, like the one stock investors experienced in 2022?

The stock market fell over 20% earlier this year and many individual stocks and cryptocurrencies registered much bigger losses. We are now heading into an investing cycle where stocks could dramatically under-perform in the years ahead amid weakening economic growth, rising interest rates, accelerated inflation and record levels of government debt.

Are you taking on too much risk? This is a great time to review your portfolio and make changes to help get you on track.

In the investing world, you can reduce your risk dramatically through diversification. Allocating up to 10 or 15% of your portfolio, based on your personal risk tolerance level, to gold can add stability to your portfolio and reduce your risk. Gold ownership diversifies your portfolio and reduces your risk because it has a negative correlation to stocks. That means while stocks go down, gold typically rises in price. Owning gold helps you control your portfolio risk.

Another advantage of gold is that it is a very liquid asset. Gold is money. Gold can be easily transported anywhere in the world and traded in for paper money. Every country on earth recognizes gold as money.

Indeed, gold is the fourth most liquid investment in the world, according to World Gold Council data. That means you can sell it the same day for paper money if you need to. Access to your money via gold in a crisis, market stress or simply anytime you want it – is one of gold’s prized characteristics.

As the Navy Seal said at the start of this article, risk management includes removing all the variables under your control. Are you too heavily invested in risky assets like stocks? Could you control your risk more effectively by increasing your allocation to gold? If you would like a personalized consultation on how much gold ownership could be appropriate for you, call a Blanchard Portfolio Manager today.

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Gold and the Inflation Reduction Act

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Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act aims to promote clean energy solutions in the coming years. While the package is considerably smaller than the original $2.2 trillion Build Back Better Act it does represent the largest ever U.S. financial commitment to slowing global warming.

Gold coins stacked in a line

The bill calls for a $400 billion investment over a period of 10 years. The spending consists of tax credits that incentivize consumers to purchase electric vehicles while encouraging electric utility companies to adopt renewable energy sources. This aggressive plan seeks to cut emissions in half by 2030. The bill also aims to accelerate the production of solar panels, and wind turbines.

This step, while not enough to prevent dangerously high global temperatures, does break the inertia that has characterized previous actions meant to address global warming.

These moves have prompted the gold mining industry to reevaluate its future. In doing so, many have discovered ways in which gold extraction can in fact contribute to de-carbonisation.

Research from The World Gold Council concluded that the current plans of the gold mining industry suggest that we could see a 35% drop in the emission intensity of power used in gold production. This reduction is possible due to an increasingly de-carbonised electrical grid.

The research also estimates that gold mining power emissions could fall an additional 9% by 2030 if lower carbon power sources see wider adoption as more mining companies see the value of transitioning.

These findings have major implications for the global climate because mining is estimated to use up to 11% total energy consumption. Moreover, the resources needed to satisfy consumers are growing rapidly as seen by the 50% increase in demand for gold over the last 22 years. It’s not surprising that the volume of gold mine production has increased by 33% over that same period. Serving this demand means that the mining industry will need to move fast in its adoption of green technology.

Reducing the emissions from mining depends heavily on the changing composition of sources involved in the grid power mix. Consider, for example, that as of 2019 coal represented 25% of grid power in gold producing countries. Global research firm Wood Mackenzie estimates that this figure will drop to 18% by 2030.

The same body of research forecasts that solar will grow from 4% to 11% in 2030, and that wind will grow to 8% from today’s figure of about 1%. Put simply, as the power grid begins to draw from greener sources the gold industry contributes far less to the global warming problem.

This research and Biden’s latest bill illustrate an important truth about overcoming the threat of global warming: making meaningful progress will require a combination of legislative acts and market forces.

Fortunately, as of this year it appears that both are in play.

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The Bold Women Behind the Isabella Quarter

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The Isabella quarter is a rare instance of a commemorative coin that celebrates woman’s industry in a world that gave most recognition to men.Obverse and reverse of the Isabella quarter

The quarter, struck in 1893, was requested by the Board of Lady Managers of the World’s Columbian Exposition. The Exposition was a world’s fair hosted by Chicago in 1893. The event was a celebration of Columbus’ arrival in the new world in 1492.

From the beginning, the coin was intended to be about women and by women. Socialite Bertha Palmer who was head of the Board of Lady Managers insisted that a woman design the coin. Caroline Peddle earned the job. She was a sculptor who worked for the Tiffany Glass Company.

Unfortunately, there were disagreements between Peddle and the Mint. This led to Peddle abandoning the project which resulted in the mint’s Chief Engraver Charles E. Barber stepping in to lead the design of the coin. Barber created an image of a kneeling woman spinning flax with a spool in one hand. The obverse depicted a profile of Spanish queen Isabella I of Castile. She was selected as the historical figure for the coin because she sponsored Columbus’s journey to the New World.

Minting began in Philadelphia several weeks after the start of the exposition. The total count of coins struck reached 40,023 with the additional 23 retained by the Mint for the purposes of inspection by the Assay Commission.

Unfortunately, the coins were not widely visible at the fair. They were only offered for sale in the Women’s Building. Moreover, the competing Columbian half dollar was widely available for purchase at the same $1 price as the Isabella coin. The Columbian half dollar was also a better bargain given its 50 cent value compared to the 25 cent value of the Isabella quarter. Consequently, the Isabella quarter did not sell well.

Total sales reached approximately 15,000 pieces. The Board of Lady Managers purchased an additional 10,000 quarters which, in time, found their way into the market as they passed through the hands of dealers throughout the 1920s.

Today the Isabella quarter is a popular collector’s piece because of it’s unique focus on women and the fact that they were issued only as commemorative pieces and not for circulation.

Despite leaving the project, Peddle went on to enjoy professional success elsewhere. She earned honorable mention at the Paris Exhibition in 1900 for her submitted work. She also designed a memorial fountain for use in Flushing, Long Island. The majority of her work at the end of her career focused on small bronze statues of children.

Bertha Palmer’s contribution to the fair is remembered today as a bold step forward for women. Her dual theme of “Primitive Woman” and “Modern Woman” for the murals at the event were uncommon at a time when men held the most authority.

The Isabella quarter is a must for any collector wishing to build a set that represents the full scope of US history as well as the women who shaped the identity of the nation.

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Economic Q&A with Peter Boockvar

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By David Zanca, Senior Portfolio Manager

In speaking with many of my clients over the last few months, I’ve been asked several questions about the state of the economy, the current and future prices of gold, and how you can best protect your wealth.Peter Boockvar CNBC image

As we all can see, there is a great deal of volatility and instability in the current market environment. Inflation is at a 40-year high, significantly impacting everything from mortgage rates to grocery prices. How this affects us all, both now and in the future, is a valid concern.

To best answer your questions, I’ve once again turned to good friend of mine, Peter Boockvar. Peter and I have known each other for many years and I value and trust his advice.

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group and is also editor of The Boock Report. Peter may be familiar to you as well, as he is a regular contributor on CNBC.

I’ve posed your questions to Peter, asking for his insight and his answers are below.

David: What are the key factors driving inflation higher? 

Peter: Inflation over the past two years was predominantly on the goods side, notably new and used cars in addition to the rise in energy and food prices but has now been joined by an acceleration of service prices, particularly rents. 

David: The Federal Reserve has stated they will aggressively hike interest rates to tamp down inflation. Will rate hikes cool inflation? 

Peter: Many goods prices are beginning to cool off but that is three-fold, #1 prices got too expensive, #2 consumers bought a lot of goods over the past two years and now we’re seeing a spending hangover, #3 Fed rate hikes are slowing economic growth as well. Services inflation will though be a mitigating factor as prices here will continue to accelerate.

David: Do you see similarities in the current situation to the 2015 attempt to raise interest rates? 

Peter: There is little similarity between now and 2015. The Fed hiked rates once in 2015 and only once in 2016 vs the 75 bps per meeting we are now seeing.

David: What are the negative impacts of “aggressive” Federal Reserve rate hikes?

Peter: As we’ve become a very low interest rate dependent economy and asset prices have been inflated by cheap money, a rise in the cost of capital has the potential of being highly disruptive to this environment.

David: The U.S. dollar has surged to 20-year highs against some currencies. What are the negative impacts of the stronger dollar and how is that impacting gold? 

Peter: A very strong dollar should be considered a tightening of financial conditions because it negatively impacts earnings of multinationals, it hurts foreign economies that import many of their raw materials and can be negative for those foreign countries and companies that have dollar denominated debt. The US dollar strength has been an obvious headwind for gold but as gold is just another currency, it could still rally vs the dollar even if the dollar rallies against other things. This though is not currently happening as we see.

David: Why hasn’t gold performed better with inflation at a 40-year high?

Peter: It’s due to faith that the Fed will tamp down on inflation and the coincident rally in the dollar have been the major negatives.

David: What impact could sharply higher interest rates have on our record-high government debt?  

Peter: The interest expense of the federal government is going to skyrocket in the coming years.

David: Much is being said of the possibility of a coming recession.  How will that impact gold?

Peter: If a recession leads to a pivot from the Fed in their rate hiking cycle that would be dollar negative and likely bullish for gold.

David: Could the Fed be forced to put the brakes on rate hikes if we fall into a recession? 

Peter: Yes, but only if the unemployment rate jumps notably from here to something above 5%.

David: Do you see the potential for a replay of the 1970’s period of stagflation – weak economic growth and high inflation? 

Peter: We are in a stagflationary environment now and it’s a global phenomenon.

David: How long do you expect inflation to stay elevated? Are we in a new era of persistent high inflation? 

Peter: We’re at or near the peak in inflation as goods prices are up at a slower pace for the 4th month in a row. Services inflation is still rising but the net result will be a peak in the rate of overall change. But a deceleration in inflation will take time and it will be years before we get back to something under 2%.

David: How could mid-term elections impact the economy/markets and gold? 

Peter: Not sure if it will but if the Republicans take the House, the regulatory pressure could ease somewhat.

David: Outlook for gold/silver/precious metals?

Peter: It’s very positive if one believes that central banks won’t be able to create a soft landing for the economy. In contrast, if one has faith in the Fed and its peers, don’t own gold.

 

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Central Bank Gold Purchases Climbs Third Month in a Row

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In June, central banks around the globe bought a total of 59 tonnes of gold to add to their vaults. In June, there were no central bank sales asGold bars governments hung onto the gold they already own. June marked the third consecutive month in which central banks bought ever larger amounts of gold to add to their coffers.

Why do central banks buy gold? The same reason that you do. Central banks buy gold for a number of reasons including:

1. Gold has no counter-party risk. There is no bank, brokerage, government (in the case of bonds) that is on the other side of your trade. Owning gold gives central banks and you true ownership of a physical tangible asset that can be exchanged for paper currency in any country in the world. You never have to worry that a bankruptcy or default will cause your gold’s worth to go to zero – unlike a stock, or even a bond.

2. Gold offers diversification away from paper currencies. Central banks also own lots of paper currency – like U.S. dollars, the euro, the Chinese yuan and other fiat currency. However, owning physical gold offers central banks diversification and protection against fluctuations, devaluations and even default in paper currency. Unlike paper currency, governments can’t affect the value of gold through printing presses.

3. Gold is a store of value. History has proven that gold is a vehicle to preserve and protect wealth. It is also an inflation hedge, which allows central banks and individual investors to protect their wealth when inflation erodes the value of your paper currency.

4. Gold performs well during crises. Gold historically rises in price – usually a lot – during geopolitical or economic crises. It helps protect portfolio losses in times of market stress as it acts as a high-quality and tail risk hedge. Central banks are looking to protect their country’s wealth, just like you seeks to protect your own.

5. Gold ownership helps central banks manage risk more effectively. Gold ownership helps manage risk and volatility, through diversification. Gold has a low correlation to key asset classes including its low correlation to stocks, especially during times of heightened equity market stress.

Who’s been buying gold this year?

Turkey was the largest gold buyer in the first half of the year, adding 63t to its gold reserves, according to the World Gold Council. Egypt was the second largest buyer in the first half of 2022, with a whopping a 44t (+54%) increase in March. The country now holds 125t of gold, or 21% of total reserves, the World Gold Council said. Other major gold buyers this year included the Central Bank of Iraq India, Ireland and Ecuador.

If central banks are still buying gold, it could make you wonder, do you own enough?

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The Fleeting History of the Fugio Cent

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No coin more perfectly represents the passage of time than the Fugio Cent. The coin, sometimes called the Franklin cent, is a work from Benjamin Franklin.

An inscription on the obverse reads “fugio” which is Latin for “I flee,” referring to the common adage that time flies. This is a fitting sentiment for a coin that was minted for only one year in 1787. The same side shows a bright sun with rays shining down on a sundial. Another inscription on the bottom reads “Mind your business” urging Americans to focus on their affairs in much the way Franklin did as a devoted entrepreneur.

The coin has the distinction of being the first circulation coin in the US. In 1787, the Congress of the Confederation of the United States authorized the creation of a copper penny that would eventually become the Fugio Cent. Franklin took inspiration from the 1776 Continental dollar that was minted in pattern pieces but never circulated.

The reverse has an image of linked rings meant to represent the unity of the original thirteen colonies with the motto ‘We are one” in the center.

The total quantity of Fugio Cents minted was relatively low at just 400,000. Ultimately, several thousand coins were stored in the basement of the Bank of New York in 1788. Almost 70 years later the same coins were packaged into cotton bags and stored for a second time. In 1926 the coins were rediscovered at which point they were distributed as souvenirs to customers and various officials. Several were sent to the American Numismatic Society. Today approximately 819 are in storage at the bank.

Research suggests that there are fifty-five varieties from twenty-four obverse dies and thirty-three reverse dies. The difference in these variations can be found in the style of sun rays on the obverse. Some versions have fine pointed rays while others have rays that are more club-shaped.

The historical significance of the Fugio Cent is more than its imagery or the fact that Franklin designed them. Consider that the copper used to mint the pieces was originally used in the bands used to hold together powder kegs provided by the French government to the United States during the American Revolution.

Today the coin remains a highly sought-after piece by collectors. In fact, some collectors seek out a rare variety called the “New Haven Restrike” which consists of both copper and silver. Some postulate that the Scovill Manufacturing Company struck these pieces in Waterbury, Connecticut. These versions are usually identified by the “G” in the word fugio. The original Fugio Cent uses a “C” with a straight line and a cross added to create the letter “G.” The New Haven Restrike, however, uses a cross stroke that only extends outward. Additionally, the linked rings are thinner on the New Haven Restrike.

The Fugio Cent is a must for anyone seeking a complete collection of coins that represent the formation of the US. The motto, creator, and even the source of the material all have origins in some of the most iconic aspects of our history.

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Gold Rises After Fed Rate Hike as Inflation Sizzles at 40-year High

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The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by .75 basis points Wednesday afternoon, pushing the Fed fund rate to 2.25-2.50%. This marks the fourth-rate hike by the central bank this year. Yet, as CPI inflation ratcheted to another fresh 40-year high at 9.1% in June, it is evident that the Fed is losing its battle in the fight against inflation.

Spot gold climbed after the Fed announcement, recently changing hands at $1,737 per ounce. Gold has been gaining in recent days, climbing from a recent low of $1,693 on July 20. Long-term investors saw the retreat under $1,700 an ounce as an excellent buying opportunity, especially as the weakness in the U.S. dollar means you get more gold for your dollars right now.

In today’s post-meeting news conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated he doesn’t believe the U.S. economy is in recession. However, investors may be wise to take this analysis with a grain of salt, given the central bank’s insistence that 2021 inflation would be “transitory.”

Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data is due out on Thursday. A negative reading would fulfill the “rule of thumb” definition of a recession, which is: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. In Q1, the U.S. economy shrank by 1.6% and the Atlanta Federal Reserve gauge has projected an economic decline of about the same amount for Q2.

In today’s economic environment – with the stock market firmly in a bear market and inflation at 40-year high – it reminds us that there are things we cannot control. However, investors should focus on what they can control, including portfolio allocations that protect and hedge your hard-earned wealth.

With the S&P 500 down 15% year-to-date, and the U.S. Government Fixed Income Index down 10% year-to-date, gold is one of the best performing asset classes of 2022, with a 4% decline.

Holding gold today is once again providing proven support to your portfolio – reducing overall draw-down levels and providing diversification against non-correlated paper assets. Economists are forecasting renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar later this year, as the Fed faces the reality that it will need to pull back on rate hikes to support the weak economy. And that will open the door for gold to power sharply higher, especially as inflation remains at red-hot levels.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end gold price target to $2,500 an ounce. For long-term investors, the current levels in gold offer an attractive buying opportunity. If you are considering increasing your allocation to gold, now is the optimal time to enter before the next powerful up leg in gold prices.

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Do You Know Your Great-Great Grandmother’s Name?

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Answer quickly: what are your great-great grandparent’s names? If you don’t know, you aren’t alone. The reason I ask is that when you get to a certain age in life, some people begin to consider their legacy and how they will be remembered throughout the generations of your family that will come after you.

We live in an era where time moves fast. In a few short decades, we’ve seen the introduction of the Internet, Google, iPhones, texting and all sorts of technology that has sped up our lives.

For tangible asset investors, building a numismatics portfolio is an opportunity to slow down time, to assemble a collection of rarities that represent our nation’s history throughout time measured in hundreds of years, as opposed to nanoseconds. It is an opportunity to build a legacy that can be treasured by your children, your grandchildren and your great-grandchildren.

When Blanchard places a significant rarity with a collector, they became not only an investor but a preservationist of American history and safe keeper of the beginning of our nation’s monetary system. These legacy investments not only preserve and increase wealth, but also preserve and honor United States history.

Here’s a snapshot of a few of the flagship rarities we’ve placed in 2022.

 

The 1794 Flowing Hair Dollar1794 Flowing Hair $1

The 1794 Flowing Hair Dollar was the first dollar coin issued by the newly established United States federal government and represents the beginning of the American monetary system.

 

1808 $2 1/2 Capped BustThe 1808 $2½ Capped Bust (Quarter Eagle)

Collectors call the 1808 $2.50 Capped Bust a “stopper coin.” (Stoppers are the coins that present the greatest difficulty in completing a set.) From the day this Quarter Eagle was minted it was a rarity, with only 2,710 coins produced. The few collectors who are fortunate to own this 1808 Quarter Eagle have the most sought-after coin to complete their set.

 

1848 $10 Liberty ProofThe 1848 $10 Liberty Proof

Only two of these coins are known to exist. One is not available for private ownership and is safely ensconced at the Smithsonian, as a highlight of their National Numismatic Collection. The coin Blanchard placed has an impressive pedigree and had previously been part of the John J. Pittman Collection, one of the most famous numismatic collections of all time. The $10 Liberty Head No Motto was minted from 1838-1866.

 

Leaving your legacy: it’s personal

Perhaps one of the best aspects about building a collection of tangible assets to pass down to your loved ones is that it’s personal. Numismatic collections are unique and one of a kind. They represent not only significant wealth and value – but also United States history, your passions and, ultimately, are a reflection of you and your hand-picked choices over time. Hand-picking coins for your heirs allows you to leave your signature on your estate in a much more meaningful way than passing down a brokerage account.

Another benefit of leaving your legacy through a numismatic collection is the private transfer with little to no paperwork. Owning rare coins or gold bullion is a simple and private method to transfer wealth to whomever you choose. If you have a bank safe deposit box or a home safe, you can simply leave instructions or inform your family where to find and retrieve your coins or bullion. Simply put, whoever holds it, owns it.

Blanchard continues to make numismatic history with its flagship placements. We can help you build your legacy too, and help you create a collection that your great-great grandchildren can appreciate. Anyone is capable of building a long-lasting collection of significance, no matter your budget. If you’d like to explore options to meet your personal goals, risk-tolerance level and budget, please contact a Blanchard portfolio manager today.

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It’s the Dollar, Stupid

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The 1992 presidential campaign slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid,” reflected the Democratic contender’s view that the Republican incumbent was out of touch with the economy. Bill Clinton ultimately did prevail against George H.W. Bush in that contest.

Investors today may be wondering why gold isn’t performing better – especially with inflation at 40-year highs and a potential recession looming on the horizon. With all due respect and no insult intended, we gently remind investors “It’s the Dollar, stupid.”

The rising U.S. dollar has been a weight on gold throughout 2022 – as the greenback climbs to its highest level in decades. Aggressive action from the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates to combat inflation has sent the U.S. dollar soaring against all the major currencies including the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling and the euro.

Measuring dollar strength

The key measure economists use to gauge the dollar’s strength is a basket of currencies that includes our major trading partners like Japan and the Eurozone. Using that measure, the U.S. dollar has climbed to a 20-year high, while the U.S. dollar spot index itself has climbed 12.6% this year.

What’s more, recently, the yen slid to a 24-year low against the U.S. dollar and the euro retreated to parity – or a one-for-one exchange rate – the first time since 2002.

For U.S. investors, this makes gold look cheap.

For foreign buyers of gold, however, the precious metal has become extremely expensive. In fact, this year, the price of gold – priced in Japanese yen hit an all-time record high.

While gold is down about 6%, priced in U.S. dollars, the commodity sector remains the best performing asset class of 2022. This year, all five equity asset classes registered double digital declines, yet the Bloomberg Commodity Index posted a 13.4% increase through mid-July.

What does this mean for you? For precious metals investors, the recent retreat in gold prices means you will receive more gold for your dollars if you buy precious metals now.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may be forced to abandon its aggressive interest rate hike campaign if the U.S. economy falls into recession. That could open the door for the U.S. dollar to pull back and for gold to climb in the second half of this year. Indeed, Goldman Sachs recently raised its year end gold price target to $2,500 an ounce. For long-term investors, the current levels in gold offer an attractive buying opportunity. If you are considering increasing your allocation to gold, don’t delay, economic conditions are changing rapidly in today’s marketplace.

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Three Reasons the U.S. Mint Produced This Odd Denomination

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Three-cent pieces were first produced in silver in 1851 to help smooth the simple act of buying a postage stamp, which cost three cents at the time. The odd denomination was also seen as a solution for merchants to easily make change for some of the foreign coins that were still legal tender in our country.

Then, the Civil war broke out. The war impacted nearly every aspect of American life during its tumultuous years, including the economy. To protect against the economic turmoil that the war created, Americans of means began hoarding silver coins – including these silver three-cent pieces.

After the war ended, silver coin hoarding continued. The simple act of making change, or purchasing those three-cent stamps proved challenging.

To combat these problems, Congress passed legislation in 1865 that authorized the production of three-cent pieces comprised of 75% copper and 25% nickel.

James B. Longacre, the Chief Engraver of the U.S. Mint, designed the new Nickel Three-Cent piece to mimic the look and appearance of a silver coin. The Nickel Three-Cent piece featured a color that was more white than brown. Longacre also chose to enlarge the size of the Nickel Three-Cent piece over the existing three-cent silver coin (there had been complaints the silver coin was too small).

Nickel Three-Cent pieces were minted from 1865-1889 at the Philadelphia Mint. Over 30 million Nickel Three-Cent pieces were produced in that 24 year period. After 1889, the Treasury melted down millions of them to create the new five-cent Liberty Head Nickels.

Collectors today remain intrigued by this odd denomination coin – especially around the years in which only proofs were struck: 1877, 1878, and 1886. Other dates including 1883, 1884 and 1885 are represented by tiny mintages of 4,000, 1,700 and 1,000 respectively.

Given the Treasury’s melting campaign and limited mintages of some years, these odd Nickel Three-Cent pieces create unique opportunities for collectors who aspire to own coins from the post-Civil war period in our country.

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