Four Factors That Can Drive Gold Higher In the Second Half
Posted onFour Factors That Can Drive Gold Higher In the Second Half
Gold is on a tear, up 13% already in 2019. Many believe this rally is just getting started. Here are 4 reasons gold is expected to continue climbing in the second half of the year.
- Don’t Fight the Fed
There is an old saying – “Don’t Fight the Fed.” For precious metals investors, that translates into higher prices ahead. The Federal Reserve is expected to slash interest rates this week and with up to 100 basis points in rate cuts over the next year. Lower interest rates historically translate into higher gold prices.
In some countries – like Germany – government debt there now comes with a negative interest rate. Negative yields mean investors lose money on their investment. Not a great proposition. Negative interest rates boost interest in gold world-wide as a traditional store of value.
- Central Banks Buy Gold with a Vengeance
Last year, global central banks purchased more gold than at any time since the early 1970’s. This year? Central banks are still buying gold. Lots and lots of gold.
- “In 2018 alone, central banks bought 651 tonnes of gold, up 74% compared to 2017 and the highest level since 1971,” according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Hub.
Russia, China, Hungary, Poland, Egypt and India are a few of the countries who are consistently buying gold. In the first quarter of 2019, central banks added another 90 tonnes of gold to their coffers.
In late July, the World Gold Council published its 2019 Central Bank Gold Reserves (CBGR) survey. This survey revealed “continued robust central bank demand for gold in the short and medium term. 11% of emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) central banks surveyed say they intend to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months.” That keeps a strong demand element in place for gold, which supports higher prices ahead.
- Investment Demand is Strong
Investors are piling into gold and momentum is strong. The yellow metal has climbed 13% since the close of 2018 and many Wall Street experts say the bull market is just getting started.
Individual investors are turning to gold because it is a well-documented safe-haven asset, with no counterparty risk when you buy physical bullion. It’s safe, easy to buy and sell and offers investors a return, especially during periods of financial market instability or crisis.
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio wrote in July in a LinkedIN post: “I believe that it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one’s portfolio.”
“[W]e believe there is a very good chance that this marks the beginning of a new gold bull market,” Joe Foster, portfolio manager for the VanEck International Investors Gold Fund Foster told TheStreet in a July article. Foster says the gold run is “likely to last several years.”
- Geopolitical Uncertainty
Recent military and political tensions between the U.S. and Iran are only one cloud on the global geopolitical horizon, which could send gold shooting higher. The China – U.S. Trade War talks are still a big unknown for both the global economy and interactions between the world’s two biggest economies. Last but not least, while we’ve been hearing about “Brexit” for years now, the UK still could leave the European Union this fall which could trigger a major financial market upheaval. In uncertain times, investors pile into gold.
The Bottom Line
People buy life insurance, health insurance and car insurance. Gold is insurance for your portfolio, your assets and your wealth. Do you own enough?
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The Second Life of the 1904-05 Lewis & Clark Exposition Gold Dollar
Posted onThe United States expanded its reach in 1803 with the Louisiana Purchase. For $15 million the U.S. acquired 828,000 square miles from France. The additional land doubled the size of the country. Soon after, President Thomas Jefferson took the initiative to find out what awaited in that great wilderness. There were stories of mammoths, and towering salt mountains.
Jefferson tapped his private secretary Meriwether Lewis to mount an expedition into the region. Lewis solicited help from William Clark, a former Army lieutenant. Their journey from present day Pittsburgh to the Pacific Coast ended in 1806. Together the men were successful in mapping the topography of the terrain and collecting plant and mineral samples. They also discovered American Indian tribes and learned about their customs and language.


Nearly 100 years later citizens of Oregon made a proposal to honor the explorers. Their plans called for a fair to be held in the city of Portland which represented a portion of Lewis and Clark’s route. By 1904 the organizers were finally successful in securing Federal funding in the form of an appropriations bill which allocated $500,000 to the project. The bill also authorized minting a gold dollar to commemorate the fair. Charles E. Barber, the Mint Chief Engraver, was responsible for designing the coin.
It is believed that the inspiration for the profiles of both Lewis and Clark came from portraits of both men painted by Charles Willson Peale. Clark is on one side and Lewis is on the other. With each piece consisting of 90% gold, and 10% copper. The Philadelphia Mint struck approximately 60,000 pieces from 1904 to 1905, however, just over 40,000 were melted.
The fair began in the summer of 1905 drawing a total of two and a half million people. The coin was designed not only to commemorate the intrepid journey of Lewis and Clark, but also to finance the completion of a Sacagawea statue in Portland’s Washington Park. Unfortunately, the coins were unpopular with collectors at the time of their issuance. Over time, however, this lack of interest has made the Lewis and Clark Exposition gold dollar more valuable. For example, the 1904 coin can command a price anywhere from $900 to $10,000 depending on its condition according to A Guide Book of United States Coins. In fact, a near perfect 1904 coin claimed $57,500 in a 2006 auction. The 1905 coin is worth an estimated $1,200 to $15,000.
Many believe each of the two coins (1904, and 1905) only sold approximately 10,000 pieces each. The coins did, fortunately, sell well enough to successfully finance the completion of the Sacagawea statue. The story of the Lewis and Clark Exposition gold dollar is a reminder that commemorative coins often have a second life. In fact, those that are initially ignored later become rare, sought after pieces because of their scarcity. As with many coins that were unpopular, the Lewis and Clark gold dollar pieces were often incorporated into jewelry like broaches and stickpins. These uses for the coin only further diminished their availability in the secondary market.
The First Official U.S. Dollar Coin
Posted onWhat an embarrassment.
Americans used to use foreign money because we didn’t have our own.
In early America, we had no official coinage, and so we used a variety of foreign coins, including Spanish dollars.
In the 1780s, many prominent Americans began calling for the creation of a national mint. After the Constitution was ratified (giving Congress the power to coin money), Congress began reviewing the country’s monetary system and coinage and deciding what to do next. Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton recommended modeling our dollar on the Spanish dollar, and that’s what we went with.
In 1791, Congress authorized a mint. Three years later, engraver Robert Scot began working on the design for the dollar, which had Liberty on one side and an eagle on the other, as mandated by the Coinage Act. Extra care was taken with engraving the dollar compared to other denominations, because the U.S. knew this large coin would be heavily scrutinized when released and used abroad. This coin would represent our fledgling country, and we wanted it to do a good job.
However, the “Flowing Hair” design by Scot was short lived, as there were problems with the striking process … and a lack of enthusiasm for the design.
It’s actually kind of quaint. A relic of a bygone era, if you will (literally) …
The Flowing Hair Dollar was only minted for two years, making it quite rare.
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Silver Explodes To New 2019 High
Posted onSilver soared to a new 2019 high last week as investors around the globe poured money into the metal.
With gold prices up nearly 10% year-to-date, investors see opportunity in silver, which lagged gold in recent month.
Some Wall Street experts pointed to the recent swift decline in bitcoin, which sank from $12,647 on July 9 to a recent low at $9,575 on July 16, as a driving force for the huge up move into silver.
Both silver and gold, along with the Swiss Franc, are viewed by investors world-wide as a traditional safe-haven investments. They typically climb during periods of declining interest rates, political or military conflict or geopolitical tensions. Precious metals also typically gain sharply when stock market’s sell-off.
Some investors view bitcoin as another safe-haven alternative. But, recent volatility and swift dumping of bitcoin in July has many re-thinking that view. Bitcoin fell swiftly in part during Congressional hearings on Facebooks Libra project – another new cryptocurrency. Uncertainty around the future of cryptocurrency regulation sent Bitcoin sharply lower and in turn sent silver sharply higher, which is an important positive development for the metal.
As we’ve written about before, the Gold/Silver ratio has been historically out of whack this year.
In recent weeks, the gold/silver ratio hit 92.
Historically, readings above 65 revealed that silver is undervalued compared to gold.
The recent 92 readings show that silver has never been this cheap compared to gold. Last week’s rally in silver shows that investors are climbing on board.
Gold already broke out this year to new 6-year highs and the technical patterns project initial gains toward the $1,800 an ounce level in gold.
Now, silver is just starting its move higher, which makes it an incredible time to accumulate silver.
If you’ve been considering increasing your precious metals allocation, the recent move in silver signals a new rally phase is just beginning, which creates opportunity for potentially huge returns ahead. Silver is back above the $16 an ounce level. With silver’s all-time high above the $49 an ounce level, long-term investors see potential to triple their investment right now. Learn more about bulk silver investment opportunities here.
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Why the Spectre of Bad Money is Pushing Gold Higher
Posted onGold is up higher than 12% year-to-date. In fact, gold is up 35% since the fourth quarter of 2015. In recent weeks, analysts at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, and CitiGroup have all upgraded their forecast for gold. Moreover, Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, made headlines in the past few days when he forecasted that the investments that “will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold.”
What is most interesting, however, is that the gold rally, and Dalio’s comments all have something to do with a man who died more than 400 years ago.
Sir Thomas Gresham (1519-1579) was a financier for Queen Elizabeth I of England. During Gresham’s service Henry VIII decided to alter the composition of the English shilling. In doing so, Henry substituted a major portion of the silver with ordinary base metals. Gresham took notice of what happened next. The spending public, aware of the change, responded by hoarding the older coins that predated the alteration. They wanted the silver.
By simply using the issue date on the coins, anyone could easily differentiate the coins with a high silver content from those that had a low proportion of silver. People stored the old coins and spent the new ones. Seeing this prompted Gresham to delineate “good” money from “bad.” In the case of the English shilling, people kept the coins that had more silver because they had the potential to eventually rise above their face value. This observation was later called Gresham’s Law and asserted that “bad money drives out good.” This brings us to gold, an example of “good” money.
Gold, unlike the dollar, has a value that is accepted worldwide. This inherent value makes gold unique. Many investors, like Dalio, are rediscovering this truth as they see money suffer from depreciation. Dalio explained that the attempts of central banks to stimulate asset prices are no longer as potent as they once were. He sees this characteristic as one that is so pervasive that he has called it a “paradigm shift.” In this new paradigm, debt, and non-debt liabilities will come due and many assets will not be valuable enough to fund these costs.
For these reasons many investors, not unlike the English that Gresham noticed, are choosing to own, and hold gold with the belief that it will rise in value over the long-term. Dalio concluded, “that it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one’s portfolio.” Gold’s recent performance, and Dalio’s analysis are a reminder that certain economic principles endure despite ever changing technology, and the whims of the market.
For a long time, we have seen bad money drive out good. Experts like Dalio are taking opportunities today to get their hands on good money like gold.
The Coins Honoring Our Founding Father
Posted on“Before there was a nation, before there was a symbol of this young nation — a flag, a constitution, a national seal — there was Washington. Even when in the course of revolutionary events a flag did appear and a Constitution, they did not have a long tradition behind them. But Washington was there, steadying the symbols, lending strength to them instead of drawing from them.” -Garry Wills
After a long, hard-fought Revolutionary war, the United States and Great Britain signed the Treaty of Paris in 1783. British troops finally left New York City in November, 1783 and in December George Washington resigned as Commander of the Revolutionary Army. America was free to chart its own course as an independent nation, no longer subject to the British monarchy.
Americans and many British sympathizers adored George Washington and wanted to pay homage to the man who wrested control of American away from the British and won freedom for his nation.
Born on February 22, 1732 in the state of Virginia, Washington was a Founding Father of the United States of America, a distinguished military commander who helped win the war by leading troops to significant victories against the British, and our nation’s first President.
“The ultimate significance of George Washington’s life lies in the fact that he singlehandedly redefined our traditional idea of greatness. To his everlasting credit, George Washington was ambiguous about power. The man who could have been king insisted that sovereignty lay with the people, however imperfect their judgment. At the end of the war and again at the end of his presidency, he calmly walked away from power.” – Richard Norton Smith
The Washington pieces were coined from 1783 through 1795 and quickly became popular with both British collectors and Americans. This category includes a variety of coins, tokens and medals, some were even produced in Britain, denominated with a half-penny or cent value.
Most of the high grade examples of each type that have survived were carefully preserved by British collectors. Meanwhile, the many well-worn surviving coins actually circulated in America.
Today, these colonial coins are all very rare and highly sought after by numismatics. Many included patriotic slogans and designs like eagles, shields, and stars, features that eventually were used on coins minted by the U.S. Mint.
Some, like the 1783 UNITY STATES and the 1793 Ship Halfpennies are fairly common. While others such as the Roman Head, dated 1783 and feature a left-facing bust of Washington wearing alternately a Roman toga or a military jacket are extremely rare and highlight sought after.
Collectors still actively seek out the 1791-dated copper tokens denominated ONE CENT. These tokens reveal a flattering and fairly accurate portrait of Washington facing left, dressed in a military jacket. There are two major types of the ONE CENT 1791 token, each display an eagle with a shield upon its breast. The first features the eagle with inverted wings, while the second and rarer type highlights a smaller eagle with its wings raised. Both show the eagle carrying an olive branch in its right claw and a bundle of arrows in its left.
Another popular item are brass tokens featuring the words “SUCCESS TO THE UNITED STATES” on their reverse. The tokens feature a right-facing bust of Washington, in military dress, and they are known in two sizes. Even today, they are generally discovered with little, if any wear, which implies these tokens were sold as souvenirs.
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A Man, A Plan, A Coin: The Oregon Trail Commemorative Coin
Posted onFor many, the Oregon Trail evokes thoughts of untouched terrain, the untamed wild, and new beginnings. The reality was much different. Many lost their lives traveling the 2,170 miles spanning the distance of Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, and Oregon. It is estimated that 20,000 people lie in unmarked graves. The journey was long, and the stakes were high. No one knew this better than Ezra Meeker.
As a young man, Meeker traveled the Oregon trail by ox-drawn wagon. He began in Iowa and made his way to the Pacific coast. The journey was six months of hardship. Later, in his adult years he built his fortune growing hops for use in brewing beer. However, an aphid infestation in 1891 destroyed his crop and much of Meeker’s wealth with it. What followed were a series of attempts, largely unsuccessful, to rebuild his wealth.
In his later years he came to see that those who had risked their life on the trail, and those who died, were being forgotten. He resolved to restore the nation’s memory of the trail. As an old man in his late seventies he set out again by wagon to retrace the journey he made as a boy.
Meeker’s return to the trail did, in fact reinvigorate the nation’s resolve to commemorate the many who braved the journey. Many living in Idaho came to share Meeker’s interest in preserving the memory of the trail. Moreover, they wanted to preserve Fort Hall, a way station that had been part of the trail. Soon, the idea of an Oregon Trail commemorative coin became popular and Meeker became a driving force in making the project a reality.
In 1926 Washington Congressman John Franklin Miller introduced a bill authorizing the minting of the Oregon Trail Memorial half dollar. Eventually, Meeker testified before the House Coinage Committee. His influence was powerful and the bill passed with unanimous consent.
Officials selected the husband and wife team of James Fraser and Laura Gardin Fraser to create the look for the coin. The two had previously designed various coins for the US Mint. James sought to design one side of the coin while Laura designed the other. James’ design depicted a Conestoga wagon like so many seen on the trail during its early days. The image shows two oxen pulling the wagon with a blazing sunset in the distance. The five stars on the bottom of this side are believed to represent the five states and territories early Oregon Trail travelers would have traversed in their journey. The reverse side shows Laura’s design of a Native American with an outstretched arm gesturing peace.
By 1926 the Philadelphia Mint was ready to get to work. They struck 48,000 coins with Meeker anxiously standing by. He was eager to take the coins on the road and sell them for $1 each. Meeker’s plan was to use the proceeds from the sale to fund another commemorative project: historical markers along what used to be the Oregon trail. The coin became the first commemorative issue to be struck at more than one mint after the San Francisco Mint issued an additional 100,000 coins.
Meeker led a long and meaningful life reaching the age of 97. His last journey across portions of the trail was by plane in 1924. The pilot of those flights, Lt. Oakley G. Kelley, had earned the first nonstop transcontinental flight record just one year earlier when he flew from New York to San Diego without refueling. In 1928 the US Mint issued an additional 50,000 coins and another 17,000 in 1933.
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This is a strange coin
Posted onIt seems rather conventional at first glance, but then you look at it: is that Lady Liberty wearing a Native American headdress?
This coin is as unique as its design. First, it’s an unusual denomination: $3. Second, the reason it was made is more than a little odd.
In 1851, the postage rate of a local prepaid letter was lowered from five cents to three cents. At the same time, a three-cent silver piece was introduced as a convenience, because the public hated the large cents that were in circulation then—and the thought of forcing our beleaguered citizens to fish out not one, not two, but three cents to pay for one stamp was just too much. Hence, the three-cent piece.
Then in 1853, the logic was carried further. Why not initiate a $3 gold piece so that people could more easily buy three-cent stamps by the sheet?
There you have it: this coin was created so that people could buy sheets of stamps more easily.
Needless, perhaps, to say, public demand never met production of this coin. Which is all the better for collectors, because many $3 coins have remained in excellent condition over the past 150+ years.
When you look at the coin, you see on the obverse a Native American “princess,” actually modeled on the Greco-Roman Crouching Venus statue that was then in a Philadelphia museum. She wears a feathered headdress with a band bearing the word “LIBERTY.” Such headdresses date back to early depictions of Native Americans, as far back as the 16th century. In the 1850s, Native American “princesses” were widely accepted as a symbol of America, until Columbia became more common. The words “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA” encircle Lady Liberty.
The reverse shows a wreath of tobacco, wheat, corn, and cotton. Within the wreath are the words “3 DOLLARS” and the date.
In 1889, the $3 piece shuffled off this mortal coil, and our nation’s coin denominations got significantly more practical (boring!).
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What Are Gold “Macro Factors” And Why Do They Matter?
Posted onYear-to-date gold has risen approximately 11% and much of this performance traces back to macro factors.
Macro-economic factors are characteristics of the economy that have widespread impact. Put simply, macro factors are the big numbers that we all care about like unemployment, inflation, and national income. Recently, three specific macro factors have driven the value of gold. They are:
The Value of the Dollar
When the value of the dollar drops the price of gold often climbs. The reason for this inverse relationship is that a drop in the value of the dollar means that gold becomes less expensive in other currencies. This dynamic explains why the inverse relationship developed after the US suspended the gold standard in 1933. This decision was designed to help pull the country out of the Great Depression, which many historians and economists believe it did.
This relationship is not a constant. There have been periods, though few, in which the value of the dollar and the value of gold has increased simultaneously. This event can occur during a period of economic upheaval in the global economy in which investors seek the relative stability of both gold and the US dollar. In fact, reporting from The World Gold Council shows that the IMF “estimated in 2008 that 40-50% of the moves in the gold price since 2002 were dollar-related, with a 1% change in the effective external value of the dollar leading to a more than 1% change in the gold price.”
Decreasing Yields
Many believe that there is a negative correlation between interest rates and the price of gold. The reasoning behind this belief is simple: investors want a return on their money and falling interest rates mean fixed-income investments deliver less. Gold, in comparison, becomes a more attractive investment.
In truth, this correlation is not nearly as strong as many think it is. In fact, the correlation may not exist at all. Consider that measurements over the last 50 years show that the correlation between gold and interest rates has only been at 28%. This figure hardly represents a strong correlation. Despite this weak correlation, in the limited view of the recent gold rally, it appears that falling rates have in fact driven investors to the relatively stronger return of gold.
Recession Fears
Recently, the yield curve became inverted. This inversion means that short-term cash instruments are paying out more than the longer-term ones. This is counter-intuitive because one would expect to earn more when they lock up their assets for longer. The reason for an inversion is that people have fears about the near-term and they are demanding more money for weathering what they believe is the coming storm.
More importantly, the yield curve has been inverted for more than three consecutive months. This period of time matters because a three-month inversion has preceded every recession over the past five decades. There are many factors behind this long-standing inversion like faltering trade agreements, a slowing manufacturing sector, and tempered consumer sentiment.
As the executive director of precious metals research at Standard Chartered Bank recently remarked, “There’s still much more room to the upside, particularly when it comes to retail demand.” The macro factors have spoken and the message is clear: consider the stability and return of gold.
Judy Shelton: A Gold Bug May Get a Seat at the Fed’s Table
Posted on“We make America great again by making America’s money great again,” – Judy Shelton, President Trump’s nominee to be a Federal Reserve governor.
The quiet movement to return to the gold standard is getting louder.
Six states passed laws recognizing gold and silver as currency since 2011. The Republican Party called for a commission to explore the viability of a return to the gold standard in both its 2012 and 2016 campaign platforms.
The gold standard, of course, is a system that ties the value of a country’s currency to gold. First adopted in the United States back in 1879, Americans were allowed to exchange paper money for physical gold.
While there are positives to the gold standard, there are also negatives, as a country can only issue as much money as it has gold. President Nixon ended U.S. dollar-gold convertibility in 1971 as foreign holdings of dollars grew larger than America’s gold reserves, which left the country vulnerable to a run on its currency.
New Fed Nominee
This week, President Trump nominated Judy Shelton, the U.S. executive director at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, for an open seat on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
- Shelton is a sharp critic of the Federal Reserve who wants to reshape the U.S. monetary system. She is loud proponent for lower interest rates and advocated for a gold currency peg throughout her career.
- She advocates that a return to a fixed-currency peg would create conditions for a more even playing field in international trade.
“Money is a moral contract between the government and individual citizens,” Ms. Shelton told a group of reporters at the Trump Hotel in May. “Someone called me a gold bug — what would I rather be? A Fed bug?”
Last year, Shelton wrote a piece for the journal of the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. In her words:
“In proposing a new international monetary system linked in some way to gold, America has an opportunity to secure continued prominence in global monetary affairs while also promoting genuine free trade based on a solid monetary foundation. Gold has historically provided a common denominator for measuring value; widely accepted at all income levels of society, it is universally acknowledged as a monetary surrogate with intrinsic value.”
She also wrote: “The United States is the world’s largest holder of official gold reserves. Comprising 8,311.5 tonnes or 261 million troy ounces, those reserves are carried at a book value of roughly $11 billion. Notably, the market value is significantly higher at $345 billion (based on the London Gold Fixing for September 30, 2016).”
Given that the U.S. currently owes $22 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt, how would a return to the gold standard be reconciled? Would the price of gold be repriced dramatically higher to match the value of the nation’s swollen debt? A return to the gold standard wouldn’t necessarily require a 1:1 convertibility value. There could a percentage in which the dollar is backed to the amount of gold reserves a country holds.
No matter how a gold peg would be calculated, this would no doubt be an extremely bullish development for the precious metal.
Digging Deeper
Since 1973 when President Nixon ended the gold standard, U.S. dollars get their value through the backing of the federal government. The Federal Reserve can expand the money supply and print unlimited amounts of money with no peg to physical gold.
Other proponents of the gold standard argue that it would limit government spending to only what it raises in taxes or can borrow against its gold reserve. This would certainly rein in spending, but that could result in consequences and potential spending cuts for big government programs like Social Security and Medicare. Another potential downside is that a country on the gold standard would have less flexibility to address financial crises or support economic downturns.
Proponents of the gold standard point to the U.S. Constitution itself for support in tying gold to U.S. dollars. Sections 8 and 10 of Article I state that Congress has the “Power…to coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin,” while “no state…shall make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”
What’s Next?
Shelton’s monetary beliefs are outside mainstream economics and she will be scrutinized by Senate lawmakers, who will need to approve Shelton for the seat on the Fed board.
Nonetheless, with the nomination of Judy Shelton, President Trump has swung open the doors to the Federal Reserve. He is giving a renowned proponent of the gold standard a seat at a powerful table with the opportunity steer the country’s monetary policy in the years ahead.